Posts tagged Super 15 (44)

March 15, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Crusaders 7.65 10.46
Stormers 6.03 6.59
Bulls 5.17 4.16
Waratahs 3.99 4.98
Reds 3.29 5.03
Blues 2.99 2.87
Sharks 1.31 0.87
Chiefs 0.63 -1.17
Hurricanes 0.31 -1.90
Highlanders -3.22 -5.69
Cheetahs -4.36 -1.46
Force -6.44 -4.95
Brumbies -6.82 -6.66
Lions -9.78 -10.82
Rebels -14.08 -15.64

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 24 18 – 19 -3.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 24 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 24 18 – 13 7.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 25 19 – 23 9.00 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 21 – 25 4.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 39 – 26 13.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 27 – 25 -4.90 FALSE
8 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 02 29 – 14 -0.70 FALSE
9 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 02 19 – 35 -15.40 TRUE
10 Lions vs. Hurricanes Mar 02 28 – 30 -3.90 TRUE
11 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 03 27 – 24 -10.40 FALSE
12 Reds vs. Force Mar 03 25 – 20 15.10 TRUE
13 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 03 19 – 51 -1.40 TRUE
14 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 03 15 – 12 10.00 TRUE
15 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 09 19 – 24 14.70 FALSE
16 Force vs. Hurricanes Mar 09 19 – 46 2.50 FALSE
17 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Mar 10 24 – 23 2.20 TRUE
18 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Mar 10 18 – 17 -3.40 FALSE
19 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 10 11 – 6 25.10 TRUE
20 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 10 32 – 20 16.30 TRUE
21 Bulls vs. Blues Mar 10 23 – 29 9.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 16 Chiefs 11.90
2 Stormers vs. Blues Mar 16 Stormers 7.50
3 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 17 Hurricanes 8.00
4 Waratahs vs. Force Mar 17 Waratahs 14.90
5 Sharks vs. Reds Mar 17 Sharks 2.50
6 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Mar 18 Cheetahs -5.20

 

 

March 9, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
I have created a brief description of the method I use
for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department
home page
to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Crusaders 9.22 10.46
Bulls 6.38 4.16
Stormers 6.03 6.59
Reds 4.90 5.03
Waratahs 4.35 4.98
Blues 1.78 2.87
Sharks 1.66 0.87
Chiefs -0.95 -1.17
Hurricanes -2.05 -1.90
Highlanders -3.57 -5.69
Force -4.08 -4.95
Cheetahs -4.45 -1.46
Brumbies -6.72 -6.66
Lions -10.12 -10.82
Rebels -15.68 -15.64

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.

Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 24 18 – 19 -3.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 24 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 24 18 – 13 7.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 25 19 – 23 9.00 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 21 – 25 4.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 39 – 26 13.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 27 – 25 -4.90 FALSE
8 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 02 29 – 14 -0.70 FALSE
9 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 02 19 – 35 -15.40 TRUE
10 Lions vs. Hurricanes Mar 02 28 – 30 -3.90 TRUE
11 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 03 27 – 24 -10.40 FALSE
12 Reds vs. Force Mar 03 25 – 20 15.10 TRUE
13 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 03 19 – 51 -1.40 TRUE
14 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 03 15 – 12 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Crusaders 14.70
2 Force vs. Hurricanes Mar 09 Force 2.50
3 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Mar 10 Brumbies 2.20
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Waratahs -3.40
5 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 10 Reds 25.10
6 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 10 Sharks 16.30
7 Bulls vs. Blues Mar 10 Bulls 9.10


 

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March 1, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Round 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Interestingly for 3 teams the ratings have not changed. That is because the Rebels had a bye, and for the Stormers versus Hurricanes, I got the margin correct (rounded to 2 decimal places). My predicted margin was also very close for the Brumbies versus Force game.


Current Rating Rating at Season Start
Crusaders 10.29 10.46
Stormers 6.59 6.59
Reds 5.71 5.03
Waratahs 4.30 4.98
Bulls 3.94 4.16
Blues 3.04 2.87
Sharks 1.10 0.87
Hurricanes -1.90 -1.90
Cheetahs -2.01 -1.46
Chiefs -2.21 -1.17
Highlanders -4.65 -5.69
Force -4.89 -4.95
Brumbies -6.72 -6.66
Lions -10.27 -10.82
Rebels -15.64 -15.64

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.

Here are the predictions for the games so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 20 18 – 19 -3.10 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 20 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 20 18 – 13 7.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 20 19 – 23 9.00 FALSE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 20 21 – 25 4.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 20 39 – 26 13.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 20 27 – 25 -4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 20 Blues -0.70
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 20 Waratahs -15.40
3 Lions vs. Hurricanes Mar 20 Hurricanes -3.90
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 20 Crusaders -10.40
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 20 Reds 15.10
6 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 20 Bulls -1.40
7 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 20 Stormers 10.00

 

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February 24, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Round 1

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Super Rugby is on again and I will be giving my predictions each week.

Team Ratings for Week 1

Here are the team ratings prior to week 1. Most notable is the low ranking for the Reds. They did well last year but were poor before that.

Rating
Crusaders 10.46
Stormers 6.59
Reds 5.03
Waratahs 4.98
Bulls 4.16
Blues 2.87
Sharks 0.87
Chiefs -1.17
Cheetahs -1.46
Hurricanes -1.90
Force -4.95
Highlanders -5.69
Brumbies -6.66
Lions -10.82
Rebels -15.64

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive prediction being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.  Comparing with the other tipsters in the NZ Herald this morning, I was the only one to tip the Cheetahs. That’s because the Lions have been consistently awful, while the Cheetahs actually had some reasonable results last year.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 24 Crusaders -3.10
2 Brumbies vs. Force Feb 24 Brumbies 2.80
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 24 Bulls 7.80
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Feb 25 Chiefs 9.00
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 25 Waratahs 4.40
6 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 Stormers 13.00
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Feb 25 Cheetahs -4.90
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