Posts tagged Super 15 (44)

February 27, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.03 9.03 0.00
Chiefs 7.47 6.98 0.50
Sharks 4.63 4.57 0.10
Bulls 3.05 2.55 0.50
Stormers 2.83 3.34 -0.50
Hurricanes 2.49 4.40 -1.90
Brumbies 1.02 -1.06 2.10
Reds -0.72 0.46 -1.20
Blues -1.11 -3.02 1.90
Highlanders -3.90 -3.41 -0.50
Cheetahs -4.22 -4.16 -0.10
Waratahs -4.29 -4.10 -0.20
Kings -9.37 -10.00 0.60
Force -10.79 -9.73 -1.10
Rebels -10.93 -10.64 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 88.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 22 27 – 41 -7.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 22 13 – 30 -8.00 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 22 25 – 17 1.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 23 20 – 34 9.90 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 23 25 – 17 5.70 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Feb 23 22 – 29 -6.20 TRUE
7 Kings vs. Force Feb 23 22 – 10 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 01 Crusaders -7.60
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 01 Waratahs 9.10
3 Reds vs. Hurricanes Mar 01 Reds 0.80
4 Chiefs vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 Chiefs 15.70
5 Bulls vs. Force Mar 02 Bulls 17.80
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 Sharks 4.30

 

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February 21, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 2, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.03 9.03 0.00
Chiefs 6.98 6.98 -0.00
Sharks 4.57 4.57 0.00
Hurricanes 4.40 4.40 0.00
Stormers 3.34 3.34 0.00
Bulls 2.55 2.55 0.00
Brumbies 0.30 -1.06 1.40
Reds -0.90 0.46 -1.40
Blues -3.02 -3.02 0.00
Highlanders -3.41 -3.41 -0.00
Waratahs -4.10 -4.10 0.00
Cheetahs -4.16 -4.16 -0.00
Kings -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Force -10.16 -9.73 -0.40
Rebels -10.21 -10.64 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Force Feb 15 30 – 23 1.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Feb 16 24 – 6 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 22 Chiefs -7.90
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 22 Brumbies -8.00
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 22 Bulls 1.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 23 Hurricanes 9.90
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 23 Reds 5.70
6 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Feb 23 Sharks -6.20
7 Kings vs. Force Feb 23 Kings 4.20

 

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February 14, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Welcome to the new Super Rugby season. This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

The introduction of a new team causes problems. I have arbitrarily assigned a rating of -10 to the Kings. This value worked reasonably well when the Rebels were introduced but obviously there will be uncertainty about games involving the Kings until they have some history.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.03 9.03 0.00
Chiefs 6.98 6.98 -0.00
Sharks 4.57 4.57 0.00
Hurricanes 4.40 4.40 0.00
Stormers 3.34 3.34 0.00
Bulls 2.55 2.55 0.00
Reds 0.46 0.46 -0.00
Brumbies -1.06 -1.06 -0.00
Blues -3.02 -3.02 0.00
Highlanders -3.41 -3.41 -0.00
Waratahs -4.10 -4.10 0.00
Cheetahs -4.16 -4.16 -0.00
Force -9.73 -9.73 0.00
Kings -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Rebels -10.64 -10.64 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Force Feb 15 Rebels 1.60
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Feb 16 Brumbies 1.00

 

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August 1, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 24

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Team Ratings for Week 24

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 24, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.02 10.46 -1.40
Sharks 6.73 0.87 5.90
Stormers 3.74 6.59 -2.90
Chiefs 3.47 -1.17 4.60
Hurricanes 3.40 -1.90 5.30
Bulls 2.93 4.16 -1.20
Reds 0.41 5.03 -4.60
Brumbies -0.89 -6.66 5.80
Blues -2.77 2.87 -5.60
Waratahs -3.13 4.98 -8.10
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.99 -1.46 -2.50
Lions -8.75 -10.82 2.10
Force -9.18 -4.95 -4.20
Rebels -11.11 -15.64 4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 27 20 – 17 -1.80 FALSE
2 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 28 19 – 26 3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 24

Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Sharks Aug 04 Chiefs 1.20

 

July 25, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 23

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Team Ratings for Week 23

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 23, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.41 10.46 -1.10
Sharks 5.91 0.87 5.00
Stormers 4.55 6.59 -2.00
Hurricanes 3.40 -1.90 5.30
Chiefs 3.09 -1.17 4.30
Bulls 2.93 4.16 -1.20
Reds 0.41 5.03 -4.60
Brumbies -0.89 -6.66 5.80
Blues -2.77 2.87 -5.60
Waratahs -3.13 4.98 -8.10
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.99 -1.46 -2.50
Lions -8.75 -10.82 2.10
Force -9.18 -4.95 -4.20
Rebels -11.11 -15.64 4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Jul 21 28 – 13 10.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Sharks Jul 21 17 – 30 1.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 23

Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 27 Crusaders -1.80
2 Stormers vs. Sharks Jul 28 Stormers 3.10

 

July 17, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 22

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Team Ratings for Week 22

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 22, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.02 10.46 -1.40
Sharks 4.77 0.87 3.90
Stormers 4.55 6.59 -2.00
Hurricanes 3.40 -1.90 5.30
Bulls 3.32 4.16 -0.80
Chiefs 3.09 -1.17 4.30
Reds 1.55 5.03 -3.50
Brumbies -0.89 -6.66 5.80
Blues -2.77 2.87 -5.60
Waratahs -3.13 4.98 -8.10
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.99 -1.46 -2.50
Lions -8.75 -10.82 2.10
Force -9.18 -4.95 -4.20
Rebels -11.11 -15.64 4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 13 28 – 25 5.20 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Blues Jul 14 16 – 30 10.30 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Force Jul 14 38 – 24 24.40 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 14 32 – 16 7.90 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Rebels Jul 14 26 – 21 23.10 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 34 – 15 12.20 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 14 37 – 20 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 22

Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Jul 21 Crusaders 10.20
2 Reds vs. Sharks Jul 21 Reds 1.30

 

July 11, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 21

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Team Ratings for Week 21

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 21, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.85 10.46 -0.60
Stormers 5.99 6.59 -0.60
Sharks 4.23 0.87 3.40
Hurricanes 3.57 -1.90 5.50
Bulls 3.28 4.16 -0.90
Chiefs 2.91 -1.17 4.10
Brumbies 1.05 -6.66 7.70
Reds 0.90 5.03 -4.10
Waratahs -2.49 4.98 -7.50
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.44 -1.46 -2.00
Blues -4.71 2.87 -7.60
Lions -8.71 -10.82 2.10
Force -10.01 -4.95 -5.10
Rebels -12.56 -15.64 3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 06 21 – 28 -1.60 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Jul 06 19 – 13 9.10 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 06 32 – 10 2.30 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Force Jul 07 32 – 9 7.30 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 15 – 19 1.90 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 07 6 – 13 -4.50 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Rebels Jul 07 37 – 32 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 21

Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 13 Hurricanes 5.20
2 Brumbies vs. Blues Jul 14 Brumbies 10.30
3 Crusaders vs. Force Jul 14 Crusaders 24.40
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 14 Reds 7.90
5 Stormers vs. Rebels Jul 14 Stormers 23.10
6 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 Sharks 12.20
7 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 14 Bulls 16.50

 

July 4, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 20

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Team Ratings for Week 20

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.42 10.46 -1.00
Stormers 5.80 6.59 -0.80
Bulls 4.85 4.16 0.70
Hurricanes 3.57 -1.90 5.50
Chiefs 3.35 -1.17 4.50
Sharks 2.65 0.87 1.80
Reds 1.14 5.03 -3.90
Brumbies 0.57 -6.66 7.20
Waratahs -2.01 4.98 -7.00
Cheetahs -3.24 -1.46 -1.80
Highlanders -3.41 -5.69 2.30
Blues -5.97 2.87 -8.80
Lions -8.39 -10.82 2.40
Force -8.76 -4.95 -3.80
Rebels -12.88 -15.64 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 29 21 – 27 -1.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Jun 29 17 – 31 -8.70 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 30 22 – 23 12.50 FALSE
4 Force vs. Brumbies Jun 30 17 – 28 -3.70 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 30 27 – 17 20.30 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 30 40 – 24 11.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 06 Crusaders -1.60
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Jul 06 Reds 9.10
3 Blues vs. Force Jul 07 Blues 7.30
4 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Jul 07 Waratahs 1.90
5 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 07 Stormers -4.50
6 Lions vs. Rebels Jul 07 Lions 9.00
7 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 07 Sharks 2.30

 

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June 28, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 19

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Team Ratings for Week 19

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 19, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.50 10.46 0.00
Stormers 6.62 6.59 0.00
Bulls 4.53 4.16 0.40
Chiefs 2.99 -1.17 4.20
Sharks 2.65 0.87 1.80
Hurricanes 2.49 -1.90 4.40
Reds 0.72 5.03 -4.30
Brumbies -0.01 -6.66 6.60
Waratahs -2.01 4.98 -7.00
Cheetahs -2.92 -1.46 -1.50
Highlanders -3.06 -5.69 2.60
Blues -5.97 2.87 -8.80
Force -8.17 -4.95 -3.20
Lions -9.21 -10.82 1.60
Rebels -12.45 -15.64 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 01 51 – 18 15.20 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Jun 01 19 – 27 -7.90 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 02 34 – 41 -4.00 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 12 – 33 4.00 FALSE
5 Lions vs. Sharks Jun 02 38 – 28 -10.70 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Stormers Jun 02 14 – 19 3.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Jun 29 Chiefs -1.50
2 Rebels vs. Reds Jun 29 Reds -8.70
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 30 Crusaders 12.50
4 Force vs. Brumbies Jun 30 Brumbies -3.70
5 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 30 Stormers 20.30
6 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jun 30 Bulls 11.90

 
 

May 30, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.08 10.46 -1.40
Stormers 5.92 6.59 -0.70
Bulls 5.23 4.16 1.10
Sharks 4.30 0.87 3.40
Chiefs 2.75 -1.17 3.90
Reds 0.72 5.03 -4.30
Hurricanes 0.49 -1.90 2.40
Waratahs -0.01 4.98 -5.00
Brumbies -0.02 -6.66 6.60
Highlanders -1.63 -5.69 4.10
Cheetahs -2.92 -1.46 -1.50
Blues -5.73 2.87 -8.60
Force -8.17 -4.95 -3.20
Lions -10.87 -10.82 -0.10
Rebels -12.44 -15.64 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls May 25 28 – 22 1.30 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 26 66 – 24 12.80 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Highlanders May 26 20 – 27 1.80 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Reds May 26 12 – 13 4.70 FALSE
5 Force vs. Lions May 26 17 – 11 7.40 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Waratahs May 26 35 – 34 1.70 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Stormers May 26 25 – 20 2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 01 Crusaders 15.20
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Jun 01 Brumbies -7.90
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 02 Chiefs -4.00
4 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 Waratahs 4.00
5 Lions vs. Sharks Jun 02 Sharks -10.70
6 Bulls vs. Stormers Jun 02 Bulls 3.80

 

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