Posts tagged Super 15 (44)

May 15, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 14, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.67 9.03 -2.40
Bulls 5.83 2.55 3.30
Brumbies 3.64 -1.06 4.70
Chiefs 3.63 6.98 -3.40
Stormers 3.49 3.34 0.20
Sharks 2.01 4.57 -2.60
Blues 1.03 -3.02 4.10
Reds 0.89 0.46 0.40
Waratahs 0.38 -4.10 4.50
Hurricanes -1.56 4.40 -6.00
Cheetahs -1.94 -4.16 2.20
Highlanders -6.46 -3.41 -3.10
Force -7.96 -9.73 1.80
Rebels -9.98 -10.64 0.70
Kings -14.46 -10.00 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 81 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Force May 10 22 – 21 18.40 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Sharks May 10 32 – 17 0.60 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Hurricanes May 10 34 – 39 5.30 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Rebels May 11 36 – 32 17.10 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Stormers May 11 21 – 15 -0.10 FALSE
6 Kings vs. Highlanders May 11 34 – 27 -6.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 17 Chiefs -2.70
2 Rebels vs. Stormers May 17 Stormers -9.50
3 Force vs. Sharks May 17 Sharks -6.00
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 18 Crusaders 8.10
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 18 Brumbies -0.80
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders May 18 Bulls 16.30
7 Cheetahs vs. Reds May 18 Cheetahs 1.20

 

May 8, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 13, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.67 9.03 -2.40
Bulls 5.83 2.55 3.30
Chiefs 5.02 6.98 -2.00
Stormers 3.98 3.34 0.60
Brumbies 3.64 -1.06 4.70
Sharks 3.16 4.57 -1.40
Blues 2.08 -3.02 5.10
Waratahs -0.11 -4.10 4.00
Reds -0.27 0.46 -0.70
Cheetahs -1.12 -4.16 3.00
Hurricanes -2.39 4.40 -6.80
Highlanders -5.41 -3.41 -2.00
Force -9.35 -9.73 0.40
Rebels -11.03 -10.64 -0.40
Kings -15.51 -10.00 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Stormers May 03 18 – 17 2.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 03 33 – 39 -13.20 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Sharks May 04 25 – 22 -6.00 FALSE
4 Force vs. Reds May 04 11 – 11 -7.80 FALSE
5 Kings vs. Waratahs May 04 10 – 72 -1.80 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Hurricanes May 04 48 – 14 8.10 TRUE
7 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 05 23 – 30 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Force May 10 Chiefs 18.40
2 Reds vs. Sharks May 10 Reds 0.60
3 Cheetahs vs. Hurricanes May 10 Cheetahs 5.30
4 Blues vs. Rebels May 11 Blues 17.10
5 Waratahs vs. Stormers May 11 Stormers -0.10
6 Kings vs. Highlanders May 11 Highlanders -6.10

 

May 1, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 12, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 5.91 9.03 -3.10
Chiefs 5.59 6.98 -1.40
Brumbies 4.40 -1.06 5.50
Sharks 3.88 4.57 -0.70
Stormers 3.87 3.34 0.50
Bulls 3.76 2.55 1.20
Blues 2.19 -3.02 5.20
Reds 0.36 0.46 -0.10
Hurricanes -0.31 4.40 -4.70
Cheetahs -1.12 -4.16 3.00
Waratahs -4.93 -4.10 -0.80
Highlanders -6.13 -3.41 -2.70
Force -9.97 -9.73 -0.20
Kings -10.69 -10.00 -0.70
Rebels -11.60 -10.64 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Apr 26 16 – 18 0.20 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Blues Apr 26 12 – 11 2.40 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 27 37 – 29 5.30 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Force Apr 27 41 – 7 13.60 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Waratahs Apr 27 30 – 19 13.00 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Kings Apr 27 26 – 12 11.70 TRUE
7 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 28 30 – 26 24.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Stormers May 03 Blues 2.30
2 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 03 Chiefs -13.20
3 Highlanders vs. Sharks May 04 Sharks -6.00
4 Force vs. Reds May 04 Reds -7.80
5 Kings vs. Waratahs May 04 Waratahs -1.80
6 Bulls vs. Hurricanes May 04 Bulls 8.10
7 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 05 Brumbies 2.50

 

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April 24, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 11, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.58 9.03 -1.40
Chiefs 5.37 6.98 -1.60
Sharks 4.10 4.57 -0.50
Bulls 3.92 2.55 1.40
Stormers 3.70 3.34 0.40
Brumbies 2.77 -1.06 3.80
Blues 2.08 -3.02 5.10
Reds 0.47 0.46 0.00
Hurricanes -0.14 4.40 -4.50
Cheetahs -1.30 -4.16 2.90
Waratahs -5.09 -4.10 -1.00
Highlanders -6.13 -3.41 -2.70
Force -8.34 -9.73 1.40
Kings -10.51 -10.00 -0.50
Rebels -13.27 -10.64 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Force Apr 19 22 – 16 13.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 19 25 – 20 -8.60 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 20 24 – 8 16.20 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 20 19 – 19 0.20 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Apr 20 6 – 12 10.60 FALSE
6 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 20 0 – 34 -7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Apr 26 Hurricanes 0.20
2 Reds vs. Blues Apr 26 Reds 2.40
3 Chiefs vs. Sharks Apr 27 Chiefs 5.30
4 Brumbies vs. Force Apr 27 Brumbies 13.60
5 Bulls vs. Waratahs Apr 27 Bulls 13.00
6 Cheetahs vs. Kings Apr 27 Cheetahs 11.70
7 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 28 Crusaders 24.80

 

April 17, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.59 9.03 -1.40
Chiefs 6.46 6.98 -0.50
Sharks 5.43 4.57 0.90
Stormers 3.70 3.34 0.40
Brumbies 2.75 -1.06 3.80
Blues 2.08 -3.02 5.10
Bulls 1.81 2.55 -0.70
Reds 0.49 0.46 0.00
Hurricanes 0.45 4.40 -3.90
Cheetahs -2.63 -4.16 1.50
Highlanders -6.15 -3.41 -2.70
Waratahs -6.18 -4.10 -2.10
Kings -8.41 -10.00 1.60
Force -8.93 -9.73 0.80
Rebels -13.27 -10.64 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 12 19 – 30 -3.70 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 13 23 – 31 13.40 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 13 28 – 6 0.70 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Kings Apr 13 27 – 30 -0.50 TRUE
5 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 13 16 – 14 -15.30 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Apr 13 22 – 15 -0.40 FALSE
7 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 13 26 – 20 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Force Apr 19 Hurricanes 13.40
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 19 Chiefs -8.60
3 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 20 Crusaders 16.20
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Reds 0.20
5 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Apr 20 Sharks 10.60
6 Kings vs. Bulls Apr 20 Bulls -7.70

 

April 10, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.98 9.03 -0.00
Chiefs 8.18 6.98 1.20
Sharks 6.02 4.57 1.50
Stormers 3.11 3.34 -0.20
Brumbies 2.17 -1.06 3.20
Hurricanes 2.16 4.40 -2.20
Bulls 1.90 2.55 -0.60
Blues 0.37 -3.02 3.40
Reds -1.22 0.46 -1.70
Cheetahs -2.72 -4.16 1.40
Highlanders -5.57 -3.41 -2.20
Waratahs -6.18 -4.10 -2.10
Kings -8.61 -10.00 1.40
Force -10.32 -9.73 -0.60
Rebels -13.06 -10.64 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 05 29 – 18 8.00 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Kings Apr 05 28 – 28 17.60 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Crusaders Apr 05 21 – 17 0.50 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Apr 06 41 – 29 12.40 TRUE
5 Force vs. Rebels Apr 06 23 – 30 7.60 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Apr 06 26 – 24 -4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 12 Brumbies -3.70
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 13 Chiefs 13.40
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 13 Blues 0.70
4 Rebels vs. Kings Apr 13 Kings -0.50
5 Force vs. Crusaders Apr 13 Crusaders -15.30
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Apr 13 Sharks -0.40
7 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Apr 13 Bulls 7.10

 

April 3, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.26 9.03 0.20
Chiefs 8.18 6.98 1.20
Sharks 5.74 4.57 1.20
Stormers 3.61 3.34 0.30
Brumbies 3.58 -1.06 4.60
Hurricanes 2.19 4.40 -2.20
Bulls 1.90 2.55 -0.60
Blues 0.13 -3.02 3.20
Reds -1.22 0.46 -1.70
Cheetahs -3.22 -4.16 0.90
Highlanders -5.32 -3.41 -1.90
Waratahs -6.21 -4.10 -2.10
Force -9.15 -9.73 0.60
Kings -10.02 -10.00 -0.00
Rebels -14.23 -10.64 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 29 33 – 34 0.10 FALSE
2 Hurricanes vs. Kings Mar 30 46 – 30 16.20 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 30 23 – 16 11.20 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Bulls Mar 30 23 – 20 6.20 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Rebels Mar 30 34 – 16 14.40 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Crusaders Mar 30 14 – 19 -1.00 TRUE
7 Waratahs vs. Force Mar 31 23 – 19 5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Apr 05 Blues 8.00
2 Brumbies vs. Kings Apr 05 Brumbies 17.60
3 Sharks vs. Crusaders Apr 05 Sharks 0.50
4 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Apr 06 Hurricanes 12.40
5 Force vs. Rebels Apr 06 Force 7.60
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Apr 06 Stormers -4.30

 

March 28, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 7, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.94 9.03 -0.10
Chiefs 8.51 6.98 1.50
Sharks 5.74 4.57 1.20
Stormers 3.93 3.34 0.60
Brumbies 3.83 -1.06 4.90
Hurricanes 2.21 4.40 -2.20
Bulls 1.65 2.55 -0.90
Blues -0.21 -3.02 2.80
Reds -1.31 0.46 -1.80
Cheetahs -3.51 -4.16 0.60
Highlanders -5.24 -3.41 -1.80
Waratahs -6.08 -4.10 -2.00
Force -9.29 -9.73 0.40
Kings -10.04 -10.00 -0.00
Rebels -13.95 -10.64 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 22 19 – 7 17.10 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Kings Mar 23 55 – 20 20.70 TRUE
3 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 23 23 – 18 0.30 TRUE
4 Force vs. Cheetahs Mar 23 10 – 19 -0.40 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Rebels Mar 23 64 – 7 17.30 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Mar 23 35 – 22 2.40 TRUE
7 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 24 30 – 27 -2.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Mar 29 Highlanders 0.10
2 Hurricanes vs. Kings Mar 30 Hurricanes 16.20
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 30 Chiefs 11.20
4 Brumbies vs. Bulls Mar 30 Brumbies 6.20
5 Cheetahs vs. Rebels Mar 30 Cheetahs 14.40
6 Stormers vs. Crusaders Mar 30 Crusaders -1.00
7 Waratahs vs. Force Mar 31 Waratahs 5.70

 

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March 20, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 8.92 6.98 1.90
Crusaders 7.80 9.03 -1.20
Brumbies 4.68 -1.06 5.70
Stormers 3.09 3.34 -0.20
Sharks 2.56 4.57 -2.00
Hurricanes 2.21 4.40 -2.20
Bulls 2.03 2.55 -0.50
Blues 0.26 -3.02 3.30
Reds -1.69 0.46 -2.20
Cheetahs -4.20 -4.16 -0.00
Highlanders -5.64 -3.41 -2.20
Waratahs -6.54 -4.10 -2.40
Force -8.60 -9.73 1.10
Kings -8.89 -10.00 1.10
Rebels -10.77 -10.64 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 19 – 23 -5.60 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 26 – 27 2.20 FALSE
3 Kings vs. Chiefs Mar 15 24 – 35 -14.30 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 16 41 – 19 7.40 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 16 12 – 19 12.50 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Brumbies Mar 16 10 – 29 5.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 22 Chiefs 17.10
2 Crusaders vs. Kings Mar 23 Crusaders 20.70
3 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 23 Reds 0.30
4 Force vs. Cheetahs Mar 23 Cheetahs -0.40
5 Sharks vs. Rebels Mar 23 Sharks 17.30
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Mar 23 Stormers 2.40
7 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 24 Blues -2.80

 

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March 13, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 5, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 9.19 6.98 2.20
Crusaders 6.63 9.03 -2.40
Sharks 4.55 4.57 -0.00
Bulls 3.19 2.55 0.60
Stormers 3.09 3.34 -0.20
Brumbies 2.69 -1.06 3.70
Hurricanes 2.34 4.40 -2.10
Blues 0.26 -3.02 3.30
Reds -0.12 0.46 -0.60
Cheetahs -4.45 -4.16 -0.30
Highlanders -5.77 -3.41 -2.40
Waratahs -6.29 -4.10 -2.20
Kings -9.16 -10.00 0.80
Force -10.16 -9.73 -0.40
Rebels -10.77 -10.64 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 08 29 – 28 -2.30 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 08 13 – 23 -7.80 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Cheetahs Mar 09 19 – 36 6.40 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 09 35 – 6 8.10 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Chiefs Mar 09 36 – 34 -2.90 FALSE
6 Kings vs. Sharks Mar 09 12 – 21 -11.60 TRUE
7 Blues vs. Bulls Mar 10 21 – 28 2.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 Hurricanes -5.60
2 Waratahs vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 Waratahs 2.20
3 Kings vs. Chiefs Mar 15 Chiefs -14.30
4 Crusaders vs. Bulls Mar 16 Crusaders 7.40
5 Reds vs. Force Mar 16 Reds 12.50
6 Sharks vs. Brumbies Mar 16 Sharks 5.90

 

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