Posts tagged Super 15 (44)

July 31, 2013

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.78 9.03 0.80
Sharks 4.43 4.57 -0.10
Chiefs 4.02 6.98 -3.00
Stormers 3.99 3.34 0.70
Bulls 3.94 2.55 1.40
Brumbies 3.07 -1.06 4.10
Waratahs 1.15 -4.10 5.30
Reds -0.70 0.46 -1.20
Cheetahs -1.16 -4.16 3.00
Hurricanes -2.28 4.40 -6.70
Blues -3.22 -3.02 -0.20
Highlanders -5.85 -3.41 -2.40
Force -7.69 -9.73 2.00
Rebels -8.66 -10.64 2.00
Kings -15.61 -10.00 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 26 20 – 19 -4.10 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Brumbies Jul 27 23 – 26 6.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Aug 03 Chiefs 5.00

 

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July 24, 2013

Super 15 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.19 9.03 1.20
Bulls 4.69 2.55 2.10
Sharks 4.43 4.57 -0.10
Stormers 3.99 3.34 0.70
Chiefs 3.61 6.98 -3.40
Brumbies 2.32 -1.06 3.40
Waratahs 1.15 -4.10 5.30
Reds -0.70 0.46 -1.20
Cheetahs -1.16 -4.16 3.00
Hurricanes -2.28 4.40 -6.70
Blues -3.22 -3.02 -0.20
Highlanders -5.85 -3.41 -2.40
Force -7.69 -9.73 2.00
Rebels -8.66 -10.64 2.00
Kings -15.61 -10.00 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jul 20 38 – 9 12.20 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Jul 21 15 – 13 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jul 26 Crusaders -4.10
2 Bulls vs. Brumbies Jul 27 Bulls 6.40

 

July 17, 2013

Super 15 Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

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Team Ratings for the Qualifying Finals

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.85 9.03 -0.20
Bulls 4.69 2.55 2.10
Sharks 4.43 4.57 -0.10
Stormers 3.99 3.34 0.70
Chiefs 3.61 6.98 -3.40
Brumbies 2.84 -1.06 3.90
Waratahs 1.15 -4.10 5.30
Reds 0.65 0.46 0.20
Cheetahs -1.69 -4.16 2.50
Hurricanes -2.28 4.40 -6.70
Blues -3.22 -3.02 -0.20
Highlanders -5.85 -3.41 -2.40
Force -7.69 -9.73 2.00
Rebels -8.66 -10.64 2.00
Kings -15.61 -10.00 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 12 25 – 17 14.70 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Highlanders Jul 12 38 – 37 1.20 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 13 16 – 26 -3.30 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Reds Jul 13 12 – 14 4.00 FALSE
5 Force vs. Brumbies Jul 13 21 – 15 -10.70 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Kings Jul 13 58 – 13 18.30 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Bulls Jul 13 30 – 13 -1.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Qualifying Finals

Here are the predictions forthe Qualifying Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jul 20 Crusaders 12.20
2 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Jul 21 Brumbies 8.50

 

July 10, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 20, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.38 9.03 0.40
Bulls 6.14 2.55 3.60
Brumbies 4.18 -1.06 5.20
Chiefs 3.07 6.98 -3.90
Stormers 2.55 3.34 -0.80
Sharks 2.29 4.57 -2.30
Waratahs 1.62 -4.10 5.70
Reds 0.17 0.46 -0.30
Cheetahs -1.69 -4.16 2.50
Blues -2.68 -3.02 0.30
Hurricanes -2.82 4.40 -7.20
Highlanders -5.87 -3.41 -2.50
Rebels -8.64 -10.64 2.00
Force -9.03 -9.73 0.70
Kings -13.47 -10.00 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jul 05 43 – 15 5.20 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 06 44 – 49 7.60 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Blues Jul 06 34 – 13 1.90 TRUE
4 Kings vs. Stormers Jul 06 12 – 24 -13.80 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Sharks Jul 06 20 – 19 7.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jul 12 Crusaders 14.70
2 Rebels vs. Highlanders Jul 12 Rebels 1.20
3 Blues vs. Chiefs Jul 13 Chiefs -3.30
4 Waratahs vs. Reds Jul 13 Waratahs 4.00
5 Force vs. Brumbies Jul 13 Brumbies -10.70
6 Sharks vs. Kings Jul 13 Sharks 18.30
7 Stormers vs. Bulls Jul 13 Bulls -1.10

 

July 3, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 19, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.56 9.03 -1.50
Bulls 6.64 2.55 4.10
Chiefs 4.90 6.98 -2.10
Brumbies 4.18 -1.06 5.20
Stormers 2.69 3.34 -0.60
Sharks 1.79 4.57 -2.80
Waratahs 1.62 -4.10 5.70
Reds 0.17 0.46 -0.30
Blues -1.15 -3.02 1.90
Hurricanes -1.82 4.40 -6.20
Cheetahs -3.21 -4.16 0.90
Highlanders -6.88 -3.41 -3.50
Rebels -8.64 -10.64 2.00
Force -9.03 -9.73 0.70
Kings -13.62 -10.00 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jun 28 34 – 22 8.70 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Jun 29 12 – 40 -8.90 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Blues Jun 29 22 – 20 7.90 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Kings Jun 29 48 – 18 21.40 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Jun 29 28 – 3 5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jul 05 Crusaders 5.20
2 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jul 06 Hurricanes 7.60
3 Cheetahs vs. Blues Jul 06 Cheetahs 1.90
4 Kings vs. Stormers Jul 06 Stormers -13.80
5 Bulls vs. Sharks Jul 06 Bulls 7.40

 

June 26, 2013

Super 15 Predictions for this week

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The Super 15 Predictions for this week were published earlier because of a reader request: Super 15 Predictions for Round 18

June 14, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 18, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.03 9.03 -3.00
Bulls 5.96 2.55 3.40
Chiefs 4.64 6.98 -2.30
Brumbies 4.18 -1.06 5.20
Sharks 2.26 4.57 -2.30
Waratahs 1.62 -4.10 5.70
Stormers 1.11 3.34 -2.20
Reds 0.17 0.46 -0.30
Hurricanes -1.55 4.40 -5.90
Blues -1.62 -3.02 1.40
Cheetahs -1.63 -4.16 2.50
Highlanders -5.35 -3.41 -1.90
Rebels -8.64 -10.64 2.00
Force -9.03 -9.73 0.70
Kings -12.93 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 103 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 07 39 – 17 14.00 TRUE
2 Force vs. Waratahs Jun 09 13 – 28 -6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Jun 28 Chiefs 8.70
2 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Jun 29 Crusaders -8.90
3 Sharks vs. Blues Jun 29 Sharks 7.90
4 Bulls vs. Kings Jun 29 Bulls 21.40
5 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Jun 29 Stormers 5.20

 

June 5, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 17, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.03 9.03 -3.00
Bulls 5.96 2.55 3.40
Chiefs 4.64 6.98 -2.30
Brumbies 3.54 -1.06 4.60
Sharks 2.26 4.57 -2.30
Stormers 1.11 3.34 -2.20
Waratahs 0.97 -4.10 5.10
Reds 0.17 0.46 -0.30
Hurricanes -1.55 4.40 -5.90
Blues -1.62 -3.02 1.40
Cheetahs -1.63 -4.16 2.50
Highlanders -5.35 -3.41 -1.90
Rebels -8.01 -10.64 2.60
Force -8.38 -9.73 1.40
Kings -12.93 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 31 23 – 22 10.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes May 31 30 – 23 9.50 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Jun 01 38 – 28 -3.40 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Rebels Jun 01 33 – 20 10.20 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Kings Jun 01 19 – 11 18.20 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 01 25 – 30 -5.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 07 Brumbies 14.00
2 Force vs. Waratahs Jun 09 Waratahs -6.90

 

May 30, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 16, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.79 9.03 -2.20
Bulls 5.96 2.55 3.40
Chiefs 4.64 6.98 -2.30
Brumbies 3.74 -1.06 4.80
Sharks 2.26 4.57 -2.30
Stormers 1.92 3.34 -1.40
Waratahs 0.20 -4.10 4.30
Reds -0.05 0.46 -0.50
Blues -0.55 -3.02 2.50
Cheetahs -1.64 -4.16 2.50
Hurricanes -1.75 4.40 -6.10
Highlanders -6.41 -3.41 -3.00
Rebels -7.79 -10.64 2.90
Force -8.38 -9.73 1.40
Kings -13.74 -10.00 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders May 24 28 – 19 -1.30 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 24 24 – 22 -6.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Brumbies May 25 13 – 20 1.00 FALSE
4 Force vs. Highlanders May 25 19 – 18 2.20 TRUE
5 Kings vs. Cheetahs May 25 22 – 24 -11.00 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Reds May 25 20 – 15 6.20 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Bulls May 25 16 – 18 -1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Waratahs May 31 Crusaders 10.60
2 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes May 31 Brumbies 9.50
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Jun 01 Blues -3.40
4 Reds vs. Rebels Jun 01 Reds 10.20
5 Stormers vs. Kings Jun 01 Stormers 18.20
6 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 01 Bulls -5.10

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May 22, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 15, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.62 9.03 -1.40
Bulls 5.89 2.55 3.30
Chiefs 3.81 6.98 -3.20
Brumbies 3.10 -1.06 4.20
Sharks 2.33 4.57 -2.20
Stormers 2.01 3.34 -1.30
Waratahs 0.92 -4.10 5.00
Blues 0.08 -3.02 3.10
Reds -0.14 0.46 -0.60
Cheetahs -0.91 -4.16 3.20
Hurricanes -1.75 4.40 -6.10
Highlanders -6.51 -3.41 -3.10
Force -8.28 -9.73 1.50
Rebels -8.50 -10.64 2.10
Kings -14.46 -10.00 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 17 12 – 17 -2.70 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Stormers May 17 30 – 21 -9.50 FALSE
3 Force vs. Sharks May 17 13 – 23 -6.00 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 18 23 – 3 8.10 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 18 28 – 22 -0.80 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders May 18 35 – 18 16.30 TRUE
7 Cheetahs vs. Reds May 18 27 – 13 1.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders May 24 Crusaders -1.30
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs May 24 Waratahs -6.90
3 Blues vs. Brumbies May 25 Blues 1.00
4 Force vs. Highlanders May 25 Force 2.20
5 Kings vs. Cheetahs May 25 Cheetahs -11.00
6 Stormers vs. Reds May 25 Stormers 6.20
7 Sharks vs. Bulls May 25 Bulls -1.10

 

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