NRL Predictions, Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 11, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | 11.04 | 5.23 | 5.80 |
Roosters | 7.48 | -5.68 | 13.20 |
Sea Eagles | 6.00 | 4.78 | 1.20 |
Storm | 5.99 | 9.73 | -3.70 |
Knights | 3.97 | 0.44 | 3.50 |
Broncos | 2.21 | -1.55 | 3.80 |
Cowboys | 2.20 | 7.05 | -4.80 |
Sharks | 0.22 | -1.78 | 2.00 |
Bulldogs | 0.11 | 7.33 | -7.20 |
Panthers | 0.08 | -6.58 | 6.70 |
Raiders | -0.03 | 2.03 | -2.10 |
Dragons | -1.70 | -0.33 | -1.40 |
Titans | -5.18 | -1.85 | -3.30 |
Eels | -10.75 | -8.82 | -1.90 |
Wests Tigers | -12.42 | -3.71 | -8.70 |
Warriors | -12.96 | -10.01 | -2.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Broncos vs. Titans | May 17 | 32 – 6 | 8.36 | TRUE |
2 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | May 17 | 54 – 10 | 23.94 | TRUE |
3 | Dragons vs. Eels | May 18 | 32 – 12 | 11.93 | TRUE |
4 | Panthers vs. Warriors | May 18 | 62 – 6 | 7.92 | TRUE |
5 | Cowboys vs. Roosters | May 18 | 8 – 12 | 0.03 | FALSE |
6 | Sharks vs. Raiders | May 19 | 30 – 20 | 3.43 | TRUE |
7 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | May 19 | 44 – 4 | 0.44 | TRUE |
8 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | May 20 | 10 – 10 | 5.61 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | May 24 | Cowboys | -10.10 |
2 | Bulldogs vs. Broncos | May 24 | Bulldogs | 2.40 |
3 | Dragons vs. Panthers | May 25 | Dragons | 2.70 |
4 | Roosters vs. Storm | May 25 | Roosters | 6.00 |
5 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | May 25 | Sea Eagles | 10.50 |
6 | Warriors vs. Knights | May 26 | Knights | -12.40 |
7 | Eels vs. Titans | May 26 | Titans | -1.10 |
8 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | May 27 | Rabbitohs | -6.30 |