June 18, 2024

AFL Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 25.63 9.23 16.40
Brisbane Lions 15.61 17.47 -1.90
Carlton Blues 12.97 9.73 3.20
Western Bulldogs 11.55 6.04 5.50
GWS Giants 10.10 12.60 -2.50
Collingwood 9.36 14.87 -5.50
Geelong Cats 7.86 10.50 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 6.21 0.40 5.80
Melbourne Demons 5.87 13.91 -8.00
Adelaide Crows 3.22 9.56 -6.30
Port Adelaide Power 2.70 8.83 -6.10
Gold Coast Suns -0.56 -4.60 4.00
Hawthorn Hawks -3.14 -11.08 7.90
St Kilda Saints -3.74 -0.63 -3.10
Essendon Bombers -7.32 -17.70 10.40
Richmond Tigers -21.33 -6.13 -15.20
West Coast Eagles -34.49 -43.10 8.60
North Melbourne -36.35 -25.73 -10.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 14 126 – 106 30.70 TRUE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 15 149 – 82 7.20 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 15 49 – 97 -13.70 TRUE
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans Jun 15 67 – 109 -9.10 TRUE
5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood Jun 16 118 – 119 -41.90 TRUE
6 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 16 73 – 51 14.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats Jun 21 Carlton Blues 14.10
2 Port Adelaide Power vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 22 Brisbane Lions -3.90
3 GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans Jun 22 Sydney Swans -6.50
4 Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne Jun 22 Melbourne Demons 51.20
5 Essendon Bombers vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 23 Essendon Bombers 36.20
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 23 Fremantle Dockers 15.80

 

June 11, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.71 10.73 2.00
Munster 10.74 10.54 0.20
Bulls 10.11 9.00 1.10
Glasgow 6.94 4.19 2.70
Stormers 6.83 8.93 -2.10
Lions 6.20 -4.26 10.50
Ulster 2.58 7.80 -5.20
Benetton -0.09 -5.12 5.00
Edinburgh -0.60 -2.26 1.70
Connacht -1.10 3.17 -4.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.75 -5.16 2.40
Sharks -3.31 0.85 -4.20
Ospreys -3.65 -7.79 4.10
Scarlets -11.01 -2.23 -8.80
Dragons -15.77 -8.14 -7.60
Zebre -17.83 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Jun 08 23 – 7 19.00 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Benetton Jun 09 30 – 23 15.60 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Ulster Jun 09 43 – 20 10.10 TRUE
4 Glasgow vs. Stormers Jun 09 27 – 10 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Leinster Jun 16 Bulls 1.40
2 Munster vs. Glasgow Jun 16 Munster 7.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.58 7.24 0.30
Toulon 5.83 3.11 2.70
Stade Rochelais 5.41 6.40 -1.00
Bordeaux Begles 5.25 4.07 1.20
Racing 92 3.27 3.42 -0.20
Stade Francais 1.69 2.62 -0.90
Section Paloise 1.32 -0.44 1.80
Clermont 0.44 1.47 -1.00
Castres Olympique -0.14 -0.39 0.30
Lyon -0.14 2.97 -3.10
Montpellier -0.97 2.09 -3.10
USA Perpignan -1.07 -3.64 2.60
Bayonne -1.83 -1.32 -0.50
US Oyonnax -9.02 -10.00 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 135 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Jun 09 17 – 28 5.90 FALSE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. US Oyonnax Jun 09 40 – 7 19.90 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Jun 09 52 – 15 6.10 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 09 40 – 28 -2.20 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Jun 09 36 – 24 8.50 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Jun 09 23 – 20 2.30 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Jun 09 24 – 19 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 16 Toulon 6.90
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jun 17 Bordeaux Begles 8.50

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.90 12.20 3.70
Chiefs 14.23 13.21 1.00
Hurricanes 13.53 9.73 3.80
Crusaders 12.76 18.86 -6.10
Brumbies 7.42 6.52 0.90
Reds 2.58 0.07 2.50
Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20
Waratahs -4.20 -1.90 -2.30
Rebels -6.09 -4.59 -1.50
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.21 -9.21 1.00
Moana Pasifika -11.62 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Jun 07 47 – 20 24.20 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 07 43 – 21 15.80 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Jun 08 36 – 5 28.80 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 08 32 – 16 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Jun 14 Blues 13.50
2 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 15 Hurricanes 2.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.91 14.73 -3.80
Roosters 7.83 3.08 4.70
Storm 6.01 6.15 -0.10
Broncos 5.32 9.07 -3.70
Sharks 4.33 2.94 1.40
Sea Eagles 2.02 -0.48 2.50
Warriors 1.76 -0.07 1.80
Cowboys -2.03 2.47 -4.50
Dolphins -2.28 -7.09 4.80
Bulldogs -2.40 -13.35 11.00
Knights -2.77 1.84 -4.60
Raiders -4.40 -4.31 -0.10
Dragons -4.47 -6.93 2.50
Rabbitohs -4.74 0.87 -5.60
Eels -5.25 0.14 -5.40
Titans -8.95 -7.89 -1.10
Wests Tigers -12.89 -13.15 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jun 07 56 – 14 7.40 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 12 – 46 3.10 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jun 08 12 – 42 7.60 FALSE
4 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 08 12 – 22 5.90 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Knights Jun 09 36 – 28 12.30 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 09 32 – 22 12.20 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 10 22 – 18 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dolphins Jun 13 Sharks 9.60
2 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 14 Raiders 0.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jun 14 Broncos -7.10
4 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 15 Titans -0.90
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 15 Warriors 2.80
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 15 Roosters -10.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 16 Sea Eagles 9.50
8 Knights vs. Panthers Jun 16 Panthers -10.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 23.49 9.23 14.30
Brisbane Lions 16.78 17.47 -0.70
Carlton Blues 12.97 9.73 3.20
Collingwood 11.94 14.87 -2.90
Fremantle Dockers 9.77 0.40 9.40
GWS Giants 9.31 12.60 -3.30
Western Bulldogs 7.99 6.04 2.00
Geelong Cats 7.86 10.50 -2.60
Melbourne Demons 5.87 13.91 -8.00
Adelaide Crows 5.37 9.56 -4.20
Port Adelaide Power 3.49 8.83 -5.30
Gold Coast Suns -0.56 -4.60 4.00
St Kilda Saints -4.92 -0.63 -4.30
Hawthorn Hawks -5.36 -11.08 5.70
Essendon Bombers -7.32 -17.70 10.40
Richmond Tigers -19.11 -6.13 -13.00
West Coast Eagles -34.49 -43.10 8.60
North Melbourne -38.92 -25.73 -13.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 06 71 – 79 39.30 FALSE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 07 71 – 114 6.30 FALSE
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Jun 08 85 – 79 -9.00 FALSE
4 West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne Jun 08 65 – 74 16.90 FALSE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 08 51 – 48 5.10 TRUE
6 Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats Jun 09 112 – 82 23.10 TRUE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 09 70 – 96 -18.70 TRUE
8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 10 89 – 51 1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 14 Brisbane Lions 30.70
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 15 Western Bulldogs 7.20
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 15 Hawthorn Hawks -13.70
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans Jun 15 Sydney Swans -9.10
5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood Jun 16 Collingwood -41.90
6 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 16 GWS Giants 14.80

 

June 4, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.71 10.73 1.00
Munster 11.04 10.54 0.50
Bulls 10.80 9.00 1.80
Stormers 7.99 8.93 -0.90
Lions 6.20 -4.26 10.50
Glasgow 5.79 4.19 1.60
Ulster 3.58 7.80 -4.20
Edinburgh -0.60 -2.26 1.70
Benetton -0.79 -5.12 4.30
Connacht -1.10 3.17 -4.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.75 -5.16 2.40
Sharks -3.31 0.85 -4.20
Ospreys -3.94 -7.79 3.90
Scarlets -11.01 -2.23 -8.80
Dragons -15.77 -8.14 -7.60
Zebre -17.83 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jun 01 38 – 26 30.40 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Connacht Jun 01 33 – 7 12.80 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 01 29 – 24 3.50 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jun 02 31 – 6 0.20 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jun 02 32 – 15 4.90 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Jun 02 14 – 26 -12.10 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jun 02 29 – 33 4.60 FALSE
8 Munster vs. Ulster Jun 02 29 – 24 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Jun 08 Munster 19.00
2 Bulls vs. Benetton Jun 09 Bulls 15.60
3 Leinster vs. Ulster Jun 09 Leinster 10.10
4 Glasgow vs. Stormers Jun 09 Glasgow 1.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.06 7.24 0.80
Toulon 5.87 3.11 2.80
Stade Rochelais 5.61 6.40 -0.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.80 4.07 0.70
Racing 92 3.07 3.42 -0.40
Stade Francais 1.65 2.62 -1.00
Section Paloise 1.14 -0.44 1.60
Montpellier -0.04 2.09 -2.10
Clermont -0.49 1.47 -2.00
Lyon -0.62 2.97 -3.60
Castres Olympique -0.69 -0.39 -0.30
USA Perpignan -0.90 -3.64 2.70
Bayonne -1.27 -1.32 0.00
US Oyonnax -8.58 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 130 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Jun 02 27 – 18 3.60 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Lyon Jun 02 41 – 26 6.20 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Jun 02 24 – 15 8.40 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 02 31 – 31 9.90 FALSE
5 Toulon vs. Clermont Jun 02 52 – 10 11.00 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Bayonne Jun 02 27 – 20 -1.70 FALSE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 02 37 – 30 0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Jun 09 Bayonne 5.90
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. US Oyonnax Jun 09 Bordeaux Begles 19.90
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Jun 09 Clermont 6.10
4 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 09 Stade Toulousain -2.20
5 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Jun 09 Section Paloise 8.50
6 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Jun 09 Stade Francais 2.30
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Jun 09 Stade Rochelais 9.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.75 12.20 3.60
Chiefs 13.79 13.21 0.60
Hurricanes 13.34 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 12.76 18.86 -6.10
Brumbies 7.21 6.52 0.70
Reds 3.02 0.07 2.90
Highlanders -0.83 1.17 -2.00
Waratahs -4.20 -1.90 -2.30
Rebels -5.90 -4.59 -1.30
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.05 -9.21 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.62 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika May 31 43 – 10 26.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Reds May 31 26 – 27 -4.70 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Jun 01 40 – 19 -0.80 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 01 41 – 14 16.20 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 01 31 – 17 4.10 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Jun 01 19 – 24 -11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Jun 07 Hurricanes 24.20
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 07 Chiefs 15.80
3 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Jun 08 Blues 28.80
4 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 08 Brumbies 13.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.68 6.82 2.90
Bristol 9.58 1.00 8.60
Northampton Saints 7.24 2.66 4.60
Bath 5.81 -1.26 7.10
Sale Sharks 4.73 6.46 -1.70
Leicester Tigers 3.27 6.13 -2.90
Exeter Chiefs 1.23 -0.89 2.10
Harlequins -2.73 1.93 -4.70
Gloucester -9.04 -1.45 -7.60
Newcastle Falcons -19.02 -10.63 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jun 01 22 – 20 3.90 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Jun 02 31 – 23 6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Jun 09 Northampton Saints 1.40

 

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