Chloroquine trial exaggerations
Q: Did you see hydroxychloroquine is back?
A: No
Q: In the Herald (blamed on news.com.au) ‘Hydroxychloroquine: Divisive drug may hold secrets to stopping Covid-19‘ and ‘Covid 19 coronavirus: Hydroxychloroquine: The drug that could be our saviour‘. What’s the news?
A: There’s a new Australian trial in healthcare workers, to see if taking the drug before you get exposed will protect you from infection — previously there had only been evidence that it doesn’t help if you take it when you’re already sick.
Q: And what were the results?
A: There aren’t any results. There won’t be any results for quite a while.
Q: When?
A: The entry at the Clinical Trials Registry says they plan to finish taking measurements at the end of the year, and the story says the results will be in by January. Though the Trials Registry also says they plan to recruit 2250 people and follow them for four months, and the story says they have ‘roughly 200’ people now. So it’s not completely clear.
Q: Will it work?
A: We don’t know. That’s the point of the trial. We know it’s nowhere near 100% effective, because people taking hydroxychloroquine for auto-immune diseases have ended up with COVID, but it’s possible that it provides some useful level of protection. It’s also very possible that it doesn’t.
Q: And healthcare workers are at high risk, so it would be most useful for them?
A: Yes, and healthcare workers are already trying to do all the other protective things, and they are still at high risk, so the drug might be a useful addition even if it’s only moderately effective
Q: And for the rest of us?
A: It’s unlikely to be as safe or effective as masks.
Q: If it does work, it will be pity that the politicisation has slowed it down
A: Well and the fact that it doesn’t work after you get sick. But yes, that’s one of the points the story makes, quoting both the lead researcher and a study participant
Q: This is the story that’s illustrated with a picture of Donald Trump?
A: <sigh>
Q: Apart from the headline and picture, the story is ok?
A: Well, later on, one of the researchers says
“For example if there was a case in a meatworks or an aged care, you’d go there and give the drug to all the residents or workers to try to prevent them getting Covid-19,” he said.
Q: But how is that before they’re exposed? If there’s a diagnosed case, they’ve already exposed people and they will be isolated in the future and not expose anyone else. It’s the people who are already exposed that are the problem.
A: I hope he’s just saying there’s a potential for using it as post-exposure prophylaxis in the future, after a different trial
Q: That … could have been clearer.
A: And the biggest problems for healthcare workers in the current Australian outbreak seem to have been a shortage of protective equipment or poor ventilation, so you’d hope irresponsible news headlines about a miracle cure wouldn’t distract from that.
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