Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Tasman | 13.94 | 15.13 | -1.20 |
Auckland | 8.13 | 6.75 | 1.40 |
Canterbury | 7.84 | 8.40 | -0.60 |
Wellington | 7.33 | 6.47 | 0.90 |
Bay of Plenty | 4.33 | 8.21 | -3.90 |
Waikato | 3.12 | 1.31 | 1.80 |
North Harbour | 1.89 | 2.87 | -1.00 |
Hawke’s Bay | 1.64 | 0.91 | 0.70 |
Taranaki | -4.12 | -4.42 | 0.30 |
Otago | -4.99 | -4.03 | -1.00 |
Northland | -6.79 | -8.71 | 1.90 |
Counties Manukau | -9.13 | -8.18 | -1.00 |
Southland | -10.11 | -14.04 | 3.90 |
Manawatu | -12.96 | -10.57 | -2.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland | Oct 02 | 16 – 20 | -0.20 | TRUE |
2 | Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu | Oct 03 | 36 – 30 | 7.00 | TRUE |
3 | Northland vs. Taranaki | Oct 03 | 35 – 25 | -1.20 | FALSE |
4 | Canterbury vs. Wellington | Oct 03 | 31 – 26 | 3.10 | TRUE |
5 | North Harbour vs. Tasman | Oct 04 | 40 – 24 | -12.50 | FALSE |
6 | Southland vs. Waikato | Oct 04 | 9 – 10 | -11.70 | TRUE |
7 | Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 04 | 9 – 28 | -1.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Manawatu vs. Canterbury | Oct 09 | Canterbury | -17.80 |
2 | Taranaki vs. Auckland | Oct 10 | Auckland | -9.20 |
3 | Wellington vs. Otago | Oct 10 | Wellington | 15.30 |
4 | Waikato vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 10 | Waikato | 15.20 |
5 | North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 11 | North Harbour | 3.30 |
6 | Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 11 | Tasman | 12.60 |
7 | Northland vs. Southland | Oct 11 | Northland | 6.30 |
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