Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals
Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Tasman | 11.99 | 15.13 | -3.10 |
Auckland | 8.19 | 6.75 | 1.40 |
Canterbury | 6.78 | 8.40 | -1.60 |
Bay of Plenty | 5.97 | 8.21 | -2.20 |
Wellington | 5.73 | 6.47 | -0.70 |
North Harbour | 5.23 | 2.87 | 2.40 |
Hawke’s Bay | 4.23 | 0.91 | 3.30 |
Waikato | 2.02 | 1.31 | 0.70 |
Otago | -3.44 | -4.03 | 0.60 |
Taranaki | -4.73 | -4.42 | -0.30 |
Northland | -5.36 | -8.71 | 3.40 |
Counties Manukau | -10.75 | -8.18 | -2.60 |
Southland | -10.78 | -14.04 | 3.30 |
Manawatu | -14.98 | -10.57 | -4.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 74 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Otago vs. Northland | Nov 20 | 19 – 32 | 7.50 | FALSE |
2 | Auckland vs. Waikato | Nov 21 | 23 – 18 | 10.00 | TRUE |
3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki | Nov 21 | 59 – 23 | 8.60 | TRUE |
4 | Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty | Nov 21 | 19 – 10 | 9.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals
Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland | Nov 27 | Hawke’s Bay | 12.60 |
2 | Auckland vs. Tasman | Nov 28 | Tasman | -0.80 |
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