January 5, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 8.47 7.35 1.10
Wasps 4.99 5.66 -0.70
Sale Sharks 3.90 4.96 -1.10
Bristol 1.92 1.28 0.60
Bath 0.08 2.14 -2.10
Harlequins -0.97 -1.08 0.10
Gloucester -1.66 -1.02 -0.60
Northampton Saints -2.37 -2.48 0.10
Leicester Tigers -5.78 -6.14 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -6.77 -10.00 3.20
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Worcester Warriors -7.73 -5.71 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 26 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 02 29 – 17 13.40 TRUE
2 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 03 34 – 5 -1.90 FALSE
3 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 19 – 22 -0.70 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 04 36 – 31 -2.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Wasps Jan 09 Wasps -0.40
2 Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 09 Sale Sharks 16.10
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 10 Exeter Chiefs 11.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 10 Gloucester -0.60
5 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 10 Northampton Saints 7.90
6 Harlequins vs. London Irish Jan 11 Harlequins 10.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.31 16.52 1.80
Munster 10.09 9.90 0.20
Ulster 8.54 4.58 4.00
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 2.30 1.98 0.30
Connacht 1.63 0.70 0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -1.27 0.08 -1.30
Ospreys -2.63 -2.82 0.20
Treviso -5.15 -3.50 -1.60
Dragons -7.45 -7.85 0.40
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.82 -15.37 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 52 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Jan 03 15 – 24 17.50 FALSE
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Jan 03 3 – 17 7.90 FALSE
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 03 10 – 7 5.60 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 03 24 – 35 23.80 FALSE
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 03 20 – 3 14.30 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 15 – 10 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 10 Cardiff Blues 1.40
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 10 Munster -3.50
3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 10 Dragons 0.20
4 Glasgow Warriors vs. Treviso Jan 10 Glasgow Warriors 15.00
5 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 10 Leinster 14.80
6 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Jan 10 Edinburgh -12.80

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Sharks 4.48 5.63 -1.20
Western Province 4.26 5.26 -1.00
Lions 3.54 1.46 2.10
Cheetahs -2.30 -2.96 0.70
Pumas -8.24 -6.66 -1.60
Griquas -9.37 -8.90 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jan 02 25 – 33 -7.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Jan 02 47 – 19 16.80 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jan 02 29 – 31 -2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Jan 08 Bulls -11.40
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jan 09 Cheetahs -2.60
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jan 09 Western Province 4.30

 

December 29, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 7.20 6.21 1.00
Stade Toulousain 6.13 4.80 1.30
La Rochelle 5.08 2.32 2.80
Lyon Rugby 4.79 5.61 -0.80
Clermont Auvergne 4.04 3.22 0.80
RC Toulonnais 3.89 3.56 0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 2.26 2.83 -0.60
Montpellier 1.91 2.30 -0.40
Stade Francais Paris -0.14 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.46 -0.47 -2.00
Brive -3.21 -3.26 0.10
Section Paloise -3.40 -4.48 1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.85 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -10.68 -4.72 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 27 12 – 8 -3.50 FALSE
2 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Dec 27 22 – 9 8.00 TRUE
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. SU Agen Dec 27 45 – 10 22.40 TRUE
4 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 27 – 9 4.40 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 29 – 27 2.30 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 45 – 23 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Section Paloise Jan 02 Aviron Bayonnais 4.00
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 02 Bordeaux-Begles 3.90
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 02 Clermont Auvergne 2.30
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique Jan 02 Lyon Rugby 12.70
5 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 Montpellier 1.30
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive Jan 02 Stade Francais Paris 8.60
7 SU Agen vs. La Rochelle Jan 02 La Rochelle -10.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.95 7.35 2.60
Sale Sharks 3.71 4.96 -1.30
Wasps 3.51 5.66 -2.20
Bristol 2.03 1.28 0.70
Bath 0.50 2.14 -1.60
Harlequins -0.97 -1.08 0.10
Gloucester -1.48 -1.02 -0.50
Northampton Saints -2.37 -2.48 0.10
Leicester Tigers -6.21 -6.14 -0.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.89 -10.00 3.10
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Worcester Warriors -7.73 -5.71 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 27 19 – 27 2.70 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Dec 27 28 – 20 17.00 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 29 – 10 8.70 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Dec 28 23 – 26 5.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 02 Bristol 13.40
2 Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins Jan 02 Harlequins -2.30
3 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 03 Exeter Chiefs -1.90
4 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 Sale Sharks -0.70
5 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Jan 04 Northampton Saints -0.30
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 04 Bath -2.20

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 10.26 9.90 0.40
Ulster 8.37 4.58 3.80
Edinburgh 3.72 5.49 -1.80
Glasgow Warriors 3.12 5.66 -2.50
Scarlets 2.05 1.98 0.10
Connacht 0.55 0.70 -0.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.49 0.08 -0.60
Ospreys -3.42 -2.82 -0.60
Treviso -4.26 -3.50 -0.80
Dragons -7.20 -7.85 0.70
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.71 -15.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 27 19 – 32 -1.80 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 27 12 – 13 -1.90 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 27 14 – 16 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Jan 03 Treviso 17.50
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Jan 03 Cardiff Blues 7.90
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 03 Edinburgh 5.60
4 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 03 Leinster 23.80
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 03 Scarlets 14.30
6 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 Ulster 3.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Western Province 4.27 5.26 -1.00
Sharks 3.69 5.63 -1.90
Lions 3.46 1.46 2.00
Cheetahs -2.31 -2.96 0.60
Pumas -8.16 -6.66 -1.50
Griquas -8.58 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 13 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Dec 26 34 – 17 17.40 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Dec 27 37 – 10 -5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jan 02 Lions -7.10
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Jan 02 Sharks 16.80
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jan 02 Western Province -2.10

 

December 25, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.73 6.21 0.50
Stade Toulousain 5.63 4.80 0.80
Lyon Rugby 5.32 5.61 -0.30
La Rochelle 4.73 2.32 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 4.54 3.22 1.30
RC Toulonnais 3.39 3.56 -0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 2.75 2.83 -0.10
Montpellier 2.27 2.30 -0.00
Stade Francais Paris -0.16 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.46 -0.47 -2.00
Section Paloise -3.38 -4.48 1.10
Brive -3.73 -3.26 -0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -4.85 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -10.21 -4.72 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Dec 23 24 – 25 7.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 27 Lyon Rugby -3.50
2 Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais Dec 27 Castres Olympique 7.90
3 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Dec 27 La Rochelle 8.00
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. SU Agen Dec 27 Racing-Metro 92 22.40
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 RC Toulonnais 4.40
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 Section Paloise 2.30
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 Stade Toulousain 8.40

 

December 22, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Sharks 5.76 5.63 0.10
Western Province 4.31 5.26 -1.00
Lions 3.46 1.46 2.00
Cheetahs -4.38 -2.96 -1.40
Pumas -8.16 -6.66 -1.50
Griquas -8.62 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Dec 18 31 – 35 1.80 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Sharks Dec 19 27 – 12 0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Dec 26 Western Province 17.40
2 Bulls vs. Lions Dec 26 Bulls 8.70
3 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Dec 27 Sharks -5.60

 

December 20, 2020

Good enough that you don’t need statistics?

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From the usually-reliable XKCD

The graphs of cumulative Covid incidence for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine trials are very impressive: the vaccines are effective.  We need to relabel the axes to see what’s wrong with the cartoon

If the trials had just been about vaccine effectiveness, they would have been much shorter.  Delaying the actual use of the vaccine, when the US alone is getting 1.5 million cases a week, just in order to get a pretty graph and avoid using statistics would be … ethically questionable. No matter how you felt about your high school stats class. If we only cared about effectiveness, the graph would look more like

The reason the trials ran so long was to assess safety.  Everyone in the trials was followed up for six weeks after their second vaccine dose, because that’s long enough to see any adverse reactions that have been seen for past vaccines.  The very high rate of new cases in the US and other countries involved in the trials, together with the high effectiveness, meant that effectiveness could be demonstrated much more quickly than safety — but safety is important.

Safety is especially important for us in NZ, where there is less urgency than in the US or UK.  Medsafe will be looking at whether to approve the vaccines and under what conditions, and they’ll be doing more than “We reject the null hypothesis based on the ‘hot damn, check out this chart’ test.”

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