July 9, 2024

AFL Predictions for Week 19

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Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 23.49 9.23 14.30
Brisbane Lions 17.16 17.47 -0.30
Carlton Blues 16.59 9.73 6.90
Fremantle Dockers 9.76 0.40 9.40
GWS Giants 8.82 12.60 -3.80
Geelong Cats 8.70 10.50 -1.80
Western Bulldogs 7.16 6.04 1.10
Collingwood 6.04 14.87 -8.80
Adelaide Crows 5.90 9.56 -3.70
Melbourne Demons 4.85 13.91 -9.10
Port Adelaide Power 2.41 8.83 -6.40
Gold Coast Suns -1.50 -4.60 3.10
Hawthorn Hawks -2.90 -11.08 8.20
St Kilda Saints -3.15 -0.63 -2.50
Essendon Bombers -7.63 -17.70 10.10
Richmond Tigers -24.54 -6.13 -18.40
North Melbourne -30.21 -25.73 -4.50
West Coast Eagles -36.78 -43.10 6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 05 80 – 92 17.60 FALSE
2 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 06 87 – 83 -23.40 FALSE
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 06 102 – 54 -1.90 FALSE
4 Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 06 110 – 59 16.10 TRUE
5 GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues Jul 06 116 – 104 -1.80 FALSE
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 06 105 – 54 41.10 TRUE
7 Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 07 112 – 58 49.70 TRUE
8 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Jul 07 84 – 82 -20.80 FALSE
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 07 97 – 86 22.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats Jul 12 Collingwood 6.30
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 13 Fremantle Dockers -3.70
3 Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne Jul 13 Sydney Swans 62.70
4 Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton Blues Jul 13 Carlton Blues -18.40
5 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 13 Adelaide Crows 18.00
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 13 Melbourne Demons 12.50
7 Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 14 Gold Coast Suns 5.10
8 Richmond Tigers vs. GWS Giants Jul 14 GWS Giants -24.40
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 14 Brisbane Lions -44.90

 

July 2, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 9.25 14.73 -5.50
Roosters 8.89 3.08 5.80
Storm 6.60 6.15 0.40
Sharks 3.33 2.94 0.40
Broncos 3.30 9.07 -5.80
Sea Eagles 1.39 -0.48 1.90
Cowboys 0.57 2.47 -1.90
Warriors -1.87 -0.07 -1.80
Knights -2.42 1.84 -4.30
Bulldogs -2.43 -13.35 10.90
Rabbitohs -2.66 0.87 -3.50
Dolphins -2.81 -7.09 4.30
Dragons -3.66 -6.93 3.30
Eels -5.41 0.14 -5.50
Titans -5.91 -7.89 2.00
Raiders -6.72 -4.31 -2.40
Wests Tigers -11.43 -13.15 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 28 15 – 14 -3.30 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 29 32 – 16 -0.10 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Eels Jun 29 34 – 26 5.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Raiders Jun 29 16 – 6 17.20 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Jun 30 26 – 6 -0.30 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Jun 30 6 – 16 14.60 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 30 40 – 6 21.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 Eels 0.20
2 Sharks vs. Titans Jul 05 Sharks 9.20
3 Broncos vs. Panthers Jul 05 Panthers -3.00
4 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Jul 06 Bulldogs 6.40
5 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 06 Storm -15.00
6 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 06 Cowboys 2.20
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 07 Roosters 15.60
8 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 07 Knights -1.30

 

AFL Predictions for Week 18

By

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 25.06 9.23 15.80
Brisbane Lions 18.46 17.47 1.00
Carlton Blues 18.11 9.73 8.40
Western Bulldogs 10.21 6.04 4.20
Fremantle Dockers 8.68 0.40 8.30
Collingwood 8.00 14.87 -6.90
GWS Giants 7.30 12.60 -5.30
Geelong Cats 6.45 10.50 -4.00
Adelaide Crows 4.59 9.56 -5.00
Melbourne Demons 4.37 13.91 -9.50
Gold Coast Suns 0.34 -4.60 4.90
Port Adelaide Power -0.64 8.83 -9.50
Hawthorn Hawks -0.65 -11.08 10.40
St Kilda Saints -4.72 -0.63 -4.10
Essendon Bombers -9.59 -17.70 8.10
Richmond Tigers -23.46 -6.13 -17.30
North Melbourne -32.04 -25.73 -6.30
West Coast Eagles -36.31 -43.10 6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 28 86 – 81 26.00 TRUE
2 North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 29 60 – 77 -35.90 TRUE
3 Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 29 98 – 99 29.40 FALSE
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jun 29 101 – 90 -1.40 FALSE
5 Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants Jun 29 94 – 78 3.60 TRUE
6 Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 29 105 – 60 21.90 TRUE
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 30 60 – 62 6.90 FALSE
8 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 30 70 – 131 -28.30 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 30 33 – 94 -21.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 05 Collingwood 17.60
2 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 06 Gold Coast Suns -23.40
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 06 Western Bulldogs -1.90
4 Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 06 Geelong Cats 16.10
5 GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues Jul 06 Carlton Blues -1.80
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 06 Fremantle Dockers 41.10
7 Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 07 Melbourne Demons 49.70
8 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Jul 07 Sydney Swans -20.80
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 07 Brisbane Lions 22.90

 

June 25, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.06 7.24 0.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.43 4.07 1.40
Toulon 5.42 3.11 2.30
Stade Rochelais 5.34 6.40 -1.10
Racing 92 3.00 3.42 -0.40
Stade Francais 1.78 2.62 -0.80
Section Paloise 1.32 -0.44 1.80
Clermont 0.44 1.47 -1.00
Castres Olympique -0.14 -0.39 0.30
Lyon -0.14 2.97 -3.10
Montpellier -0.97 2.09 -3.10
USA Perpignan -1.07 -3.64 2.60
Bayonne -1.83 -1.32 -0.50
US Oyonnax -9.02 -10.00 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 138 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 22 39 – 23 1.80 TRUE
2 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 23 20 – 22 -3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 29 Stade Toulousain 9.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 17

By

Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 27.06 9.23 17.80
Brisbane Lions 19.93 17.47 2.50
Carlton Blues 15.97 9.73 6.20
Western Bulldogs 11.55 6.04 5.50
Collingwood 9.36 14.87 -5.50
GWS Giants 8.67 12.60 -3.90
Fremantle Dockers 6.67 0.40 6.30
Geelong Cats 4.86 10.50 -5.60
Adelaide Crows 3.22 9.56 -6.30
Melbourne Demons 2.91 13.91 -11.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.03 -4.60 3.60
Port Adelaide Power -1.62 8.83 -10.40
Hawthorn Hawks -3.14 -11.08 7.90
St Kilda Saints -3.74 -0.63 -3.10
Essendon Bombers -8.00 -17.70 9.70
Richmond Tigers -21.33 -6.13 -15.20
North Melbourne -33.38 -25.73 -7.70
West Coast Eagles -33.82 -43.10 9.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats Jun 21 138 – 75 14.10 TRUE
2 Port Adelaide Power vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 22 73 – 152 -3.90 TRUE
3 GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans Jun 22 75 – 102 -6.50 TRUE
4 Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne Jun 22 70 – 67 51.20 TRUE
5 Essendon Bombers vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 23 122 – 92 36.20 TRUE
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 23 85 – 65 15.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 28 Brisbane Lions 26.00
2 North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 29 Western Bulldogs -35.90
3 Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 29 Sydney Swans 29.40
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jun 29 Collingwood -1.40
5 Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants Jun 29 Adelaide Crows 3.60
6 Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 29 Geelong Cats 21.90
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 30 St Kilda Saints 6.90
8 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 30 Carlton Blues -28.30
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 30 Hawthorn Hawks -21.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.72 14.73 -4.00
Roosters 8.14 3.08 5.10
Storm 7.06 6.15 0.90
Broncos 4.28 9.07 -4.80
Sharks 3.61 2.94 0.70
Sea Eagles 1.39 -0.48 1.90
Cowboys -0.90 2.47 -3.40
Dolphins -1.59 -7.09 5.50
Knights -2.58 1.84 -4.40
Rabbitohs -2.66 0.87 -3.50
Bulldogs -2.71 -13.35 10.60
Warriors -2.85 -0.07 -2.80
Dragons -4.88 -6.93 2.00
Eels -5.25 0.14 -5.40
Titans -5.91 -7.89 2.00
Raiders -7.18 -4.31 -2.90
Wests Tigers -10.68 -13.15 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 121 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Storm Jun 21 24 – 30 -5.60 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 22 66 – 6 -3.30 FALSE
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 22 26 – 8 13.20 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 22 14 – 0 -3.10 FALSE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 23 48 – 24 -3.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 28 Sharks -3.30
2 Warriors vs. Broncos Jun 29 Broncos -0.10
3 Knights vs. Eels Jun 29 Knights 5.70
4 Storm vs. Raiders Jun 29 Storm 17.20
5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Jun 30 Dolphins -0.30
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Jun 30 Panthers 14.60
7 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jun 30 Roosters 21.80

 

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June 18, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.35 10.73 1.60
Bulls 10.47 9.00 1.50
Munster 9.61 10.54 -0.90
Glasgow 8.07 4.19 3.90
Stormers 6.83 8.93 -2.10
Lions 6.20 -4.26 10.50
Ulster 2.58 7.80 -5.20
Benetton -0.09 -5.12 5.00
Edinburgh -0.60 -2.26 1.70
Connacht -1.10 3.17 -4.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.75 -5.16 2.40
Sharks -3.31 0.85 -4.20
Ospreys -3.65 -7.79 4.10
Scarlets -11.01 -2.23 -8.80
Dragons -15.77 -8.14 -7.60
Zebre -17.83 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Leinster Jun 16 25 – 20 1.40 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Glasgow Jun 16 10 – 17 7.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Glasgow Jun 23 Bulls 6.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.58 7.24 0.30
Stade Rochelais 5.82 6.40 -0.60
Bordeaux Begles 5.52 4.07 1.40
Toulon 5.42 3.11 2.30
Racing 92 3.00 3.42 -0.40
Stade Francais 1.69 2.62 -0.90
Section Paloise 1.32 -0.44 1.80
Clermont 0.44 1.47 -1.00
Castres Olympique -0.14 -0.39 0.30
Lyon -0.14 2.97 -3.10
Montpellier -0.97 2.09 -3.10
USA Perpignan -1.07 -3.64 2.60
Bayonne -1.83 -1.32 -0.50
US Oyonnax -9.02 -10.00 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 136 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 16 29 – 34 6.90 FALSE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jun 17 31 – 17 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 22 Stade Toulousain 1.80
2 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 23 Bordeaux Begles -3.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

By

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.94 12.20 3.70
Chiefs 14.78 13.21 1.60
Hurricanes 12.98 9.73 3.30
Crusaders 12.76 18.86 -6.10
Brumbies 7.38 6.52 0.90
Reds 2.58 0.07 2.50
Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20
Waratahs -4.20 -1.90 -2.30
Rebels -6.09 -4.59 -1.50
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.21 -9.21 1.00
Moana Pasifika -11.62 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Jun 14 34 – 20 13.50 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 15 19 – 30 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 22 Blues 4.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.72 14.73 -4.00
Roosters 7.83 3.08 4.70
Storm 7.03 6.15 0.90
Broncos 4.28 9.07 -4.80
Sharks 3.61 2.94 0.70
Sea Eagles 2.44 -0.48 2.90
Warriors 0.74 -0.07 0.80
Cowboys -0.90 2.47 -3.40
Dolphins -1.56 -7.09 5.50
Bulldogs -2.40 -13.35 11.00
Knights -2.58 1.84 -4.40
Rabbitohs -3.70 0.87 -4.60
Dragons -4.88 -6.93 2.00
Eels -5.25 0.14 -5.40
Raiders -5.53 -4.31 -1.20
Titans -9.51 -7.89 -1.60
Wests Tigers -12.33 -13.15 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dolphins Jun 13 28 – 30 9.60 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 14 16 – 34 0.60 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jun 14 22 – 12 -7.10 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 15 18 – 10 -0.90 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 15 24 – 38 2.80 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 15 18 – 28 -10.10 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 16 30 – 14 9.50 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Panthers Jun 16 18 – 26 -10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Storm Jun 21 Storm -5.60
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 22 Warriors -3.30
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 22 Roosters 13.20
4 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 22 Sea Eagles -3.10
5 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 23 Raiders -3.80

 

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