Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Exeter Chiefs | 6.01 | 7.35 | -1.30 |
Bristol | 3.75 | 1.28 | 2.50 |
Sale Sharks | 3.27 | 4.96 | -1.70 |
Harlequins | 1.51 | -1.08 | 2.60 |
Wasps | 0.48 | 5.66 | -5.20 |
Northampton Saints | -0.75 | -2.48 | 1.70 |
Bath | -1.85 | 2.14 | -4.00 |
Gloucester | -2.86 | -1.02 | -1.80 |
Leicester Tigers | -4.58 | -6.14 | 1.60 |
London Irish | -5.03 | -8.05 | 3.00 |
Newcastle Falcons | -5.78 | -10.00 | 4.20 |
Worcester Warriors | -7.27 | -5.71 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 59 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 28 | 17 – 3 | 12.60 | TRUE |
2 | Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors | Feb 28 | 22 – 14 | 9.10 | TRUE |
3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins | Feb 28 | 25 – 22 | -3.60 | FALSE |
4 | Northampton Saints vs. Bath | Mar 01 | 22 – 23 | 6.50 | FALSE |
5 | Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 27 | 25 – 20 | 1.20 | TRUE |
6 | Wasps vs. London Irish | Feb 28 | 10 – 16 | 11.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 07 | Exeter Chiefs | -3.40 |
2 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 08 | Harlequins | 6.80 |
3 | Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish | Mar 06 | Leicester Tigers | 4.90 |
4 | Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 06 | Sale Sharks | 13.60 |
5 | Wasps vs. Gloucester | Mar 07 | Wasps | 7.80 |
6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol | Mar 07 | Bristol | -6.50 |
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