Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Stade Toulousain | 8.91 | 4.80 | 4.10 |
Clermont Auvergne | 6.67 | 3.22 | 3.50 |
Racing-Metro 92 | 6.08 | 6.21 | -0.10 |
La Rochelle | 5.71 | 2.32 | 3.40 |
Bordeaux-Begles | 4.06 | 2.83 | 1.20 |
Lyon Rugby | 3.98 | 5.61 | -1.60 |
RC Toulonnais | 3.41 | 3.56 | -0.20 |
Montpellier | 1.38 | 2.30 | -0.90 |
Stade Francais Paris | -0.64 | -3.22 | 2.60 |
Castres Olympique | -1.06 | -0.47 | -0.60 |
Brive | -3.11 | -3.26 | 0.20 |
Section Paloise | -3.69 | -4.48 | 0.80 |
Aviron Bayonnais | -7.19 | -4.13 | -3.10 |
SU Agen | -13.96 | -4.72 | -9.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 132 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Rugby | Mar 07 | 20 – 28 | -4.10 | TRUE |
2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Section Paloise | Mar 07 | 29 – 23 | 13.50 | TRUE |
3 | Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle | Mar 07 | 22 – 15 | -0.80 | FALSE |
4 | Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne | Mar 06 | 22 – 16 | 0.70 | TRUE |
5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Mar 07 | 25 – 21 | 1.60 | TRUE |
6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. SU Agen | Mar 07 | 40 – 21 | 18.00 | TRUE |
7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Brive | Mar 07 | 42 – 17 | 16.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen | Mar 14 | Aviron Bayonnais | 12.20 |
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