Pro14 Predictions for the Final and Postponed Matches
Team Ratings for the Final and Postponed Matches
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 15.68 | 16.52 | -0.80 |
Munster | 9.76 | 9.90 | -0.10 |
Ulster | 8.80 | 4.58 | 4.20 |
Edinburgh | 3.92 | 5.49 | -1.60 |
Connacht | 2.47 | 0.70 | 1.80 |
Glasgow Warriors | 2.11 | 5.66 | -3.60 |
Cardiff Blues | 0.72 | 0.08 | 0.60 |
Scarlets | 0.59 | 1.98 | -1.40 |
Cheetahs | -0.46 | -0.46 | 0.00 |
Ospreys | -0.76 | -2.82 | 2.10 |
Dragons | -6.69 | -7.85 | 1.20 |
Treviso | -6.70 | -3.50 | -3.20 |
Zebre | -14.52 | -15.37 | 0.80 |
Southern Kings | -14.92 | -14.92 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 94 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Munster vs. Treviso | Mar 20 | 31 – 17 | 23.90 | TRUE |
2 | Leinster vs. Ospreys | Mar 20 | 19 – 24 | 24.90 | FALSE |
3 | Ulster vs. Zebre | Mar 20 | 49 – 3 | 28.50 | TRUE |
4 | Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors | Mar 22 | 26 – 17 | -3.30 | FALSE |
5 | Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh | Mar 23 | 34 – 15 | 2.00 | TRUE |
6 | Scarlets vs. Connacht | Mar 23 | 41 – 36 | 4.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Final and Postponed Matches
Here are the predictions for the Final and Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dragons vs. Edinburgh | Mar 29 | Edinburgh | -6.90 |
2 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Treviso | Mar 28 | Glasgow Warriors | 14.90 |
3 | Leinster vs. Munster | Mar 28 | Leinster | 10.90 |
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