Stats Chat

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

It’s time for NZ’s Bird of the Year.  There are two important things to remember about Bird of the Year. First, if you’re going to talk about it on social media use the appropriate hashtag so normal people can mute you.  Second, Bird of the Year is a popularity contest driven by who votes and by last minute social influences; it doesn’t tell us anything new about the birds themselves or really even anything about their popularity in other settings. That’s not the thing you need to remember. The thing you need to remember is that all other online bogus clicky polls work the same way.

I’m campaigning for kākāpō because Zoe Luo, who is doing a PhD with me, is working on ways to model the genetics of rare species, using kākāpō as an example.  The entire kākāpō species had full genome sequencing done.  You usually can’t do that; Zoe is looking at how to use genome sequencing on a sample of the population together with other information on the rest of the birds to fit similar statistical models to the ones you would fit with full genome sequencing.  We can do this with the kākāpō because it’s easy to see what how well your models would work if you had less data than you really do — you can just ignore some of it — but it’s harder to see how well your models would work if you had more data than you really do.

Today is the NZ Vaxathon! I had my second dose last week. All the statisticians I’ve talked to on the issue have had either one or two doses depending on when they became eligible.  For fans of anecdata, our experience varied from no adverse effects at all to a day or so feeling pretty bloody average, consistent with what the randomised trial reported.

In the spirit of StatsChat, here are some links to primary sources for anyone who wants to do their own reading rather than getting clinicians and scientists to translate it

• Official guidance from the US Food and Drug Administration on what sort of evidence they would need to approve a Covid vaccine (June 2020)
• The protocol (plan) for the Pfizer vaccine trial. It’s unusual for these to be public, but it was reassuring when this one was published last year (PDF)
• The meeting briefings for the external expert advisory committee meeting that recommended authorisation of the vaccine. You want ‘Briefing Document -FDA’ and ‘Briefing Document -Sponsor’. And if you’re really dedicated, the transcript of the discussion.  This is where you get all the detailed information that doesn’t fit into a published research paper, plus discussion from the medical and scientific experts
• Real-world effectiveness assessment of the vaccine in Israel. Authors include Miguel Hernán, who is a leading expert on causal inference from observational data
• What we know about heart inflammation after vaccination: an adverse reaction in about one person per 100,000 aged under 40.  Most recover fully, but there has been one death in New Zealand that was probably due to this.
• A summary on vaccine effectiveness with links to primary sources, covering effectiveness against Delta, prevention of infection, and prevention of symptomatic disease
• Vaccination of health care workers in the UK reduced infection rates for their household members
• A recent study in China (with different vaccines) found vaccinated people were less likely to pass on the virus even with Delta
• An even more recent UK study looking at the Pfizer and AZ vaccines found the same

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.