Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3
Team Ratings for Week 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Wellington | 10.46 | 10.63 | -0.20 |
Hawke’s Bay | 5.48 | 6.09 | -0.60 |
Taranaki | 5.38 | 5.21 | 0.20 |
Waikato | 5.12 | 5.30 | -0.20 |
Canterbury | 4.92 | 6.01 | -1.10 |
Bay of Plenty | 3.59 | 3.52 | 0.10 |
Tasman | 3.26 | 2.17 | 1.10 |
North Harbour | 3.00 | 3.06 | -0.10 |
Auckland | 2.37 | 3.00 | -0.60 |
Otago | -2.62 | -3.26 | 0.60 |
Northland | -4.34 | -4.29 | -0.10 |
Counties Manukau | -5.04 | -5.22 | 0.20 |
Southland | -9.43 | -10.05 | 0.60 |
Manawatu | -18.68 | -18.73 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Otago vs. Auckland | Aug 16 | 27 – 25 | -3.30 | FALSE |
2 | Northland vs. Manawatu | Aug 17 | 35 – 18 | 17.40 | TRUE |
3 | Tasman vs. Canterbury | Aug 17 | 22 – 7 | -0.80 | FALSE |
4 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland | Aug 17 | 31 – 17 | 19.10 | TRUE |
5 | Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour | Aug 18 | 24 – 20 | 3.50 | TRUE |
6 | Wellington vs. Taranaki | Aug 18 | 26 – 19 | 8.40 | TRUE |
7 | Counties Manukau vs. Waikato | Aug 18 | 20 – 26 | -7.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 3
Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland | Aug 23 | Hawke’s Bay | 12.80 |
2 | Counties Manukau vs. Tasman | Aug 24 | Tasman | -5.30 |
3 | Auckland vs. Canterbury | Aug 24 | Auckland | 0.50 |
4 | Southland vs. Taranaki | Aug 24 | Taranaki | -11.80 |
5 | Otago vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 25 | Bay of Plenty | -3.20 |
6 | Wellington vs. Manawatu | Aug 25 | Wellington | 32.10 |
7 | North Harbour vs. Waikato | Aug 25 | North Harbour | 0.90 |
8 | Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 28 | Canterbury | 2.40 |
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