NRL Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 16.59 | 14.26 | 2.30 |
Storm | 16.07 | 19.20 | -3.10 |
Rabbitohs | 6.81 | 15.81 | -9.00 |
Sea Eagles | 4.01 | 10.99 | -7.00 |
Eels | 3.44 | 2.54 | 0.90 |
Roosters | 1.99 | 2.23 | -0.20 |
Sharks | 0.99 | -1.10 | 2.10 |
Cowboys | 0.00 | -12.27 | 12.30 |
Raiders | -1.02 | -1.10 | 0.10 |
Broncos | -1.08 | -8.90 | 7.80 |
Titans | -4.06 | 1.05 | -5.10 |
Dragons | -7.42 | -7.99 | 0.60 |
Warriors | -7.53 | -8.99 | 1.50 |
Wests Tigers | -9.10 | -10.94 | 1.80 |
Knights | -10.35 | -6.54 | -3.80 |
Bulldogs | -11.36 | -10.25 | -1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 88 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Knights vs. Broncos | May 19 | 12 – 36 | -3.90 | TRUE |
2 | Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs | May 20 | 36 – 22 | 4.00 | TRUE |
3 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | May 20 | 22 – 20 | 2.50 | TRUE |
4 | Dragons vs. Warriors | May 21 | 24 – 18 | 5.50 | TRUE |
5 | Cowboys vs. Storm | May 21 | 36 – 6 | -18.30 | FALSE |
6 | Roosters vs. Panthers | May 21 | 12 – 32 | -10.40 | TRUE |
7 | Rabbitohs vs. Raiders | May 22 | 12 – 32 | 14.70 | FALSE |
8 | Titans vs. Sharks | May 22 | 18 – 25 | -1.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | May 26 | Storm | 15.10 |
2 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | May 27 | Panthers | 19.60 |
3 | Broncos vs. Titans | May 27 | Broncos | 6.00 |
4 | Warriors vs. Knights | May 28 | Warriors | 2.80 |
5 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | May 28 | Rabbitohs | 18.90 |
6 | Sharks vs. Roosters | May 28 | Sharks | 2.00 |
7 | Bulldogs vs. Dragons | May 29 | Dragons | -0.90 |
8 | Raiders vs. Eels | May 29 | Eels | -1.50 |
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