May 3, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 26

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Team Ratings for Week 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.97 14.79 1.20
Munster 10.59 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.71 7.41 1.30
Stormers 6.90 0.00 6.90
Bulls 6.62 3.65 3.00
Sharks 6.19 -0.07 6.30
Edinburgh 3.03 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.39 3.69 -1.30
Connacht -0.53 1.72 -2.20
Ospreys -0.58 0.94 -1.50
Scarlets -0.90 -0.77 -0.10
Lions -2.45 -3.91 1.50
Benetton -5.93 -4.50 -1.40
Cardiff Rugby -6.32 -0.11 -6.20
Dragons -10.70 -6.92 -3.80
Zebre -16.97 -13.47 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 132 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Glasgow Apr 30 29 – 17 10.40 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 30 42 – 21 23.90 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Benetton May 01 37 – 29 10.40 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Connacht May 01 41 – 21 11.70 TRUE
5 Zebre vs. Dragons May 01 23 – 18 -0.80 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Scarlets May 01 54 – 36 3.80 TRUE
7 Stormers vs. Leinster May 01 20 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
8 Edinburgh vs. Ulster May 01 10 – 16 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 26

Here are the predictions for Week 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Dragons May 09 Ospreys 15.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.11 6.78 0.30
Racing-Metro 92 6.70 6.13 0.60
Stade Toulousain 6.01 6.83 -0.80
Bordeaux-Begles 5.61 5.42 0.20
Lyon Rugby 4.67 4.15 0.50
Clermont Auvergne 4.54 5.09 -0.60
RC Toulonnais 4.05 1.82 2.20
Montpellier 3.06 -0.01 3.10
Castres Olympique 2.63 0.94 1.70
Stade Francais Paris 0.41 1.20 -0.80
Section Paloise -1.12 -2.25 1.10
USA Perpignan -3.23 -2.78 -0.50
Brive -4.42 -3.19 -1.20
Biarritz -8.68 -2.78 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 167 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Castres Olympique May 01 13 – 48 -2.90 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais May 01 16 – 29 9.50 FALSE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Francais Paris May 01 29 – 26 11.50 TRUE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Montpellier May 01 43 – 20 7.10 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 01 21 – 42 0.00 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle May 01 23 – 16 5.20 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Brive May 01 27 – 10 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Clermont Auvergne May 22 Clermont Auvergne -6.70
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Lyon Rugby May 22 Bordeaux-Begles 7.40
3 Brive vs. Stade Toulousain May 22 Stade Toulousain -3.90
4 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan May 22 Castres Olympique 12.40
5 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris May 22 La Rochelle 13.20
6 Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 22 Montpellier 2.90
7 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise May 22 RC Toulonnais 11.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.02 13.43 -0.40
Blues 10.74 9.26 1.50
Chiefs 8.73 5.56 3.20
Hurricanes 7.68 8.28 -0.60
Brumbies 5.09 3.61 1.50
Highlanders 3.72 6.54 -2.80
Reds 1.58 1.37 0.20
Waratahs -4.61 -9.00 4.40
Western Force -5.12 -4.96 -0.20
Rebels -8.37 -5.79 -2.60
Moana Pasifika -11.35 -10.00 -1.30
Fijian Drua -12.80 -10.00 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 29 25 – 27 -1.00 TRUE
2 Western Force vs. Blues Apr 29 18 – 22 -11.00 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Highlanders Apr 30 24 – 27 -11.50 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 30 24 – 21 -13.30 FALSE
5 Rebels vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 30 26 – 22 9.90 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes May 01 42 – 25 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Rebels May 06 Blues 25.10
2 Reds vs. Highlanders May 06 Reds 3.90
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs May 07 Waratahs -0.70
4 Chiefs vs. Brumbies May 07 Chiefs 9.60
5 Western Force vs. Crusaders May 07 Crusaders -12.10
6 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua May 08 Hurricanes 26.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 5.95 -5.00 10.90
Leicester Tigers 4.66 -6.14 10.80
Gloucester 3.01 -1.02 4.00
Harlequins 2.88 -1.08 4.00
Exeter Chiefs 2.60 7.35 -4.70
Wasps 1.98 5.66 -3.70
Northampton Saints 1.50 -2.48 4.00
Sale Sharks 1.38 4.96 -3.60
London Irish -2.60 -8.05 5.40
Bristol -4.08 1.28 -5.40
Newcastle Falcons -7.07 -3.52 -3.60
Bath -8.44 2.14 -10.60
Worcester Warriors -13.39 -5.71 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 141 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Apr 30 32 – 31 3.50 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 30 35 – 27 13.60 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Bath May 01 64 – 0 11.30 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol May 01 56 – 26 11.30 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens May 01 16 – 38 -13.90 TRUE
6 London Irish vs. Wasps May 02 42 – 42 -0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. London Irish May 22 London Irish -1.30
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs May 22 Exeter Chiefs -2.20
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester May 22 Harlequins 4.40
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers May 22 Leicester Tigers -7.20
5 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints May 22 Saracens 8.90
6 Wasps vs. Sale Sharks May 22 Wasps 5.10

 

April 26, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.61 19.20 -0.60
Panthers 15.23 14.26 1.00
Rabbitohs 11.36 15.81 -4.50
Sea Eagles 7.59 10.99 -3.40
Eels 5.57 2.54 3.00
Sharks 2.79 -1.10 3.90
Roosters 1.56 2.23 -0.70
Titans -2.37 1.05 -3.40
Raiders -4.19 -1.10 -3.10
Dragons -7.05 -7.99 0.90
Cowboys -7.08 -12.27 5.20
Knights -7.56 -6.54 -1.00
Broncos -8.14 -8.90 0.80
Warriors -8.62 -8.99 0.40
Wests Tigers -8.89 -10.94 2.00
Bulldogs -10.79 -10.25 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Apr 21 34 – 22 -3.70 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 22 34 – 14 3.70 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 23 30 – 4 -5.30 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 23 23 – 22 -19.70 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Eels Apr 24 2 – 39 -6.70 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Raiders Apr 24 36 – 6 21.30 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Roosters Apr 25 14 – 12 -6.70 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 70 – 10 29.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 28 Sharks -7.90
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 29 Panthers -14.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 29 Rabbitohs 6.80
4 Warriors vs. Raiders Apr 30 Raiders -4.40
5 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 30 Roosters -9.40
6 Eels vs. Cowboys Apr 30 Eels 15.60
7 Knights vs. Storm May 01 Storm -23.20
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 01 Dragons 4.80

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 25

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Team Ratings for Week 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.58 14.79 1.80
Munster 10.86 10.69 0.20
Ulster 7.96 7.41 0.50
Bulls 6.48 3.65 2.80
Stormers 6.30 0.00 6.30
Sharks 5.44 -0.07 5.50
Edinburgh 3.78 2.90 0.90
Glasgow 2.53 3.69 -1.20
Connacht 0.22 1.72 -1.50
Scarlets -0.15 -0.77 0.60
Ospreys -1.33 0.94 -2.30
Lions -2.23 -3.91 1.70
Benetton -6.15 -4.50 -1.70
Cardiff Rugby -6.59 -0.11 -6.50
Dragons -10.18 -6.92 -3.30
Zebre -17.49 -13.47 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Glasgow Apr 23 32 – 7 8.60 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Munster Apr 23 17 – 24 3.30 FALSE
3 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Apr 23 29 – 26 30.30 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Benetton Apr 24 46 – 29 19.60 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 24 19 – 38 -3.40 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Connacht Apr 24 30 – 33 5.60 FALSE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Apr 24 6 – 22 1.50 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Leinster Apr 24 28 – 23 -5.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 25

Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Glasgow Apr 30 Bulls 10.40
2 Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 30 Munster 23.90
3 Lions vs. Benetton May 01 Lions 10.40
4 Sharks vs. Connacht May 01 Sharks 11.70
5 Zebre vs. Dragons May 01 Dragons -0.80
6 Ospreys vs. Scarlets May 01 Ospreys 3.80
7 Stormers vs. Leinster May 01 Leinster -3.80
8 Edinburgh vs. Ulster May 01 Edinburgh 2.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.20 6.78 0.40
Bordeaux-Begles 6.32 5.42 0.90
Racing-Metro 92 6.03 6.13 -0.10
Stade Toulousain 5.92 6.83 -0.90
Clermont Auvergne 4.96 5.09 -0.10
Lyon Rugby 4.15 4.15 -0.00
Montpellier 3.59 -0.01 3.60
RC Toulonnais 3.35 1.82 1.50
Castres Olympique 1.68 0.94 0.70
Stade Francais Paris -0.01 1.20 -1.20
Section Paloise -0.45 -2.25 1.80
USA Perpignan -3.58 -2.78 -0.80
Brive -4.07 -3.19 -0.90
Biarritz -7.72 -2.78 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Apr 24 17 – 31 -0.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 24 12 – 0 2.20 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan Apr 24 32 – 16 17.40 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Biarritz Apr 24 40 – 7 19.30 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 24 21 – 18 7.40 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 24 19 – 15 3.90 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Apr 25 22 – 23 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Castres Olympique May 01 Castres Olympique -2.90
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. RC Toulonnais May 01 Bordeaux-Begles 9.50
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Francais Paris May 01 Clermont Auvergne 11.50
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Montpellier May 01 Lyon Rugby 7.10
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 01 Section Paloise 0.00
6 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle May 01 Stade Toulousain 5.20
7 USA Perpignan vs. Brive May 01 USA Perpignan 7.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.88 13.43 0.50
Blues 11.30 9.26 2.00
Chiefs 8.64 5.56 3.10
Hurricanes 8.49 8.28 0.20
Brumbies 4.28 3.61 0.70
Highlanders 4.21 6.54 -2.30
Reds 1.67 1.37 0.30
Waratahs -5.47 -9.00 3.50
Western Force -5.68 -4.96 -0.70
Rebels -7.89 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -11.83 -10.00 -1.80
Fijian Drua -13.29 -10.00 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Apr 22 51 – 27 6.30 TRUE
2 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Apr 23 35 – 18 18.90 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Reds Apr 23 30 – 17 -0.60 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Apr 24 17 – 28 -5.10 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 24 42 – 17 14.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Reds vs. Chiefs Apr 29 Chiefs -1.00
2 Western Force vs. Blues Apr 29 Blues -11.00
3 Fijian Drua vs. Highlanders Apr 30 Highlanders -11.50
4 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 30 Crusaders -13.30
5 Rebels vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 30 Rebels 9.90
6 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes May 01 Brumbies 1.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 5.48 -5.00 10.50
Leicester Tigers 3.69 -6.14 9.80
Harlequins 2.68 -1.08 3.80
Exeter Chiefs 2.60 7.35 -4.70
Wasps 1.99 5.66 -3.70
Sale Sharks 1.73 4.96 -3.20
Northampton Saints 1.71 -2.48 4.20
Gloucester 0.69 -1.02 1.70
London Irish -2.61 -8.05 5.40
Bristol -3.11 1.28 -4.40
Bath -6.11 2.14 -8.20
Newcastle Falcons -7.41 -3.52 -3.90
Worcester Warriors -12.92 -5.71 -7.20

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Apr 23 29 – 28 0.60 TRUE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish Apr 23 14 – 42 2.60 FALSE
3 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Apr 24 31 – 36 -3.00 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 24 26 – 20 3.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 24 41 – 12 18.20 TRUE
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 25 38 – 22 6.30 TRUE

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Apr 30 Northampton Saints 3.50
2 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 30 Sale Sharks 13.60
3 Gloucester vs. Bath May 01 Gloucester 11.30
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol May 01 Leicester Tigers 11.30
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Saracens May 01 Saracens -13.90
6 London Irish vs. Wasps May 02 Wasps -0.10
April 19, 2022

Briefly

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  • The Herald has a story on a penis size ‘survey’ from a UK online pharmacy specialising in men’s health, who “used Google data to rank the average penis size of 86 countries – and New Zealand has placed 50th”. That’s not an indication of worrying privacy leaks in Android phones; it seems they did just Google for the results. The pharmacy obviously wants to get publicity because being unknown will be its biggest business problem. In the UK, they did well and got a mention in The Sun. Being in the Herald doesn’t do them much good, though.
  • ESR is now publishing detailed wastewater Covid data, which is great — the big advantage of wastewater data is that the sampling is independent of Covid prevalence, in contrast to data on testing, where you tend to miss more cases as the prevalence goes up.
  • One thing I don’t like about the current ESR graphs is that they use a log scale for viral load and a linear scale for cases, which is one reason the peak for wastewater looks so much broader than the peak for cases (the other reason is that wastewater measures total active cases, not daily new cases)
  • Ben Schmidt has made an interactive map of ethnicity in the US, based on Census data — in the sense that it has a dot for each of the 300-odd million people recorded in the Census
  • Interesting Twitter thread about the case against the continued existence of Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in the US.  Not precisely statistical, but definitely statistics-adjacent.
  • Somewhat dodgy graphic from Labour about housing consents. If this is an area graph, the axis should go down to zero.  It’s not as bad as some I’ve covered in the past, but it’s annoying. The second graph is an edited version where the axis does go down to zero and the areas are meaningful
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