Team Ratings for Week 27
There was one rescheduled game last week which I didn’t pick up so wasn’t in my forecast. I have added it in the results below.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|
Current Rating |
Rating at Season Start |
Difference |
Leinster |
15.97 |
14.79 |
1.20 |
Munster |
10.59 |
10.69 |
-0.10 |
Ulster |
8.71 |
7.41 |
1.30 |
Stormers |
6.90 |
0.00 |
6.90 |
Bulls |
6.62 |
3.65 |
3.00 |
Sharks |
6.19 |
-0.07 |
6.30 |
Edinburgh |
3.03 |
2.90 |
0.10 |
Glasgow |
2.39 |
3.69 |
-1.30 |
Ospreys |
-0.23 |
0.94 |
-1.20 |
Connacht |
-0.53 |
1.72 |
-2.20 |
Scarlets |
-0.90 |
-0.77 |
-0.10 |
Lions |
-2.45 |
-3.91 |
1.50 |
Cardiff Rugby |
-5.72 |
-0.11 |
-5.60 |
Benetton |
-5.93 |
-4.50 |
-1.40 |
Dragons |
-11.05 |
-6.92 |
-4.10 |
Zebre |
-17.57 |
-13.47 |
-4.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 134 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
|
Game |
Date |
Score |
Prediction |
Correct |
1 |
Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre |
May 07 |
42 – 14 |
17.10 |
TRUE |
2 |
Ospreys vs. Dragons |
May 09 |
50 – 31 |
15.10 |
TRUE |
Predictions for Week 27
Here are the predictions for Week 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|
Game |
Date |
Winner |
Prediction |
1 |
Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby |
May 14 |
Cardiff Rugby |
-0.30 |
2 |
Benetton vs. Zebre |
May 15 |
Benetton |
16.60 |
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