June 7, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.71 14.79 2.90
Munster 9.78 10.69 -0.90
Ulster 9.02 7.41 1.60
Stormers 7.32 0.00 7.30
Bulls 6.99 3.65 3.30
Sharks 6.95 -0.07 7.00
Edinburgh 3.58 2.90 0.70
Glasgow -0.00 3.69 -3.70
Ospreys -0.83 0.94 -1.80
Scarlets -1.23 -0.77 -0.50
Connacht -1.60 1.72 -3.30
Lions -1.74 -3.91 2.20
Benetton -3.68 -4.50 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.42 -0.11 -7.30
Dragons -11.81 -6.92 -4.90
Zebre -16.99 -13.47 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 04 30 – 27 5.50 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Munster Jun 04 36 – 17 2.50 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 05 76 – 14 20.70 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Jun 05 28 – 17 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Bulls Jun 11 Leinster 17.20
2 Stormers vs. Ulster Jun 12 Stormers 4.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.90 6.83 1.10
La Rochelle 7.70 6.78 0.90
Racing-Metro 92 6.21 6.13 0.10
Bordeaux-Begles 6.01 5.42 0.60
Clermont Auvergne 4.78 5.09 -0.30
RC Toulonnais 4.50 1.82 2.70
Lyon Rugby 3.61 4.15 -0.50
Montpellier 3.52 -0.01 3.50
Castres Olympique 3.23 0.94 2.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.71 1.20 -1.90
Section Paloise -1.81 -2.25 0.40
USA Perpignan -3.05 -2.78 -0.30
Brive -4.06 -3.19 -0.90
Biarritz -10.48 -2.78 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 181 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier Jun 06 20 – 15 8.10 TRUE
2 Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle Jun 06 26 – 29 3.00 FALSE
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. RC Toulonnais Jun 06 21 – 16 8.60 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Jun 06 16 – 26 2.30 FALSE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive Jun 06 17 – 33 11.50 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Biarritz Jun 06 80 – 7 22.10 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 06 22 – 15 -3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle Jun 12 Stade Toulousain 6.70
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 13 Bordeaux-Begles 6.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.51 13.43 2.10
Blues 12.72 9.26 3.50
Hurricanes 7.70 8.28 -0.60
Chiefs 7.57 5.56 2.00
Brumbies 4.82 3.61 1.20
Highlanders 3.31 6.54 -3.20
Reds 0.26 1.37 -1.10
Waratahs -2.59 -9.00 6.40
Western Force -6.94 -4.96 -2.00
Rebels -8.27 -5.79 -2.50
Moana Pasifika -11.64 -10.00 -1.60
Fijian Drua -14.14 -10.00 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jun 03 37 – 15 21.10 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 04 39 – 15 15.10 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 04 35 – 6 13.20 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 35 – 25 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jun 10 Crusaders 13.40
2 Blues vs. Brumbies Jun 11 Blues 13.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.55 -6.14 11.70
Gloucester 5.08 -1.02 6.10
Saracens 3.60 -5.00 8.60
Northampton Saints 3.04 -2.48 5.50
Sale Sharks 2.83 4.96 -2.10
Harlequins 2.52 -1.08 3.60
Exeter Chiefs 2.40 7.35 -4.90
Wasps 1.12 5.66 -4.50
London Irish -2.88 -8.05 5.20
Bristol -4.25 1.28 -5.50
Bath -9.04 2.14 -11.20
Newcastle Falcons -9.08 -3.52 -5.60
Worcester Warriors -12.51 -5.71 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Jun 05 47 – 38 3.70 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Saracens Jun 05 54 – 7 1.90 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Jun 05 20 – 10 8.70 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 05 65 – 26 14.20 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 05 42 – 19 10.20 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Jun 05 43 – 27 -0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Saracens vs. Harlequins Jun 12 Saracens 5.60
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Jun 12 Leicester Tigers 7.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.02 7.25 -0.20
Cheetahs 3.60 -2.70 6.30
Pumas 1.43 -3.31 4.70
Griquas 0.29 -4.92 5.20
Sharks -0.79 4.13 -4.90
Western Province -3.75 1.42 -5.20
Lions -7.79 -1.88 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jun 04 28 – 29 8.30 FALSE
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Jun 04 41 – 43 1.20 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 05 32 – 38 14.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Jun 11 Pumas 5.60
2 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 11 Cheetahs 1.10
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jun 12 Western Province 1.50

 

May 31, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 16.79 14.26 2.50
Storm 16.47 19.20 -2.70
Rabbitohs 7.38 15.81 -8.40
Eels 3.96 2.54 1.40
Sea Eagles 3.62 10.99 -7.40
Roosters 3.29 2.23 1.10
Cowboys -0.19 -12.27 12.10
Sharks -0.30 -1.10 0.80
Broncos -0.68 -8.90 8.20
Raiders -1.54 -1.10 -0.40
Titans -4.47 1.05 -5.50
Dragons -6.83 -7.99 1.20
Warriors -8.21 -8.99 0.80
Knights -9.67 -6.54 -3.10
Wests Tigers -9.67 -10.94 1.30
Bulldogs -11.94 -10.25 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 26 28 – 8 15.10 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Cowboys May 27 22 – 0 19.60 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Titans May 27 35 – 24 6.00 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Knights May 28 16 – 24 2.80 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 28 44 – 18 18.90 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters May 28 16 – 36 2.00 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 29 24 – 34 -0.90 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Eels May 29 20 – 28 -1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 02 Cowboys -1.30
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jun 03 Panthers 31.70
3 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jun 04 Sea Eagles 17.30
4 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 Roosters -1.80

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 29

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Team Ratings for Week 29

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.94 14.79 1.10
Munster 10.63 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.17 7.41 0.80
Stormers 7.23 0.00 7.20
Bulls 7.22 3.65 3.60
Sharks 6.73 -0.07 6.80
Edinburgh 3.66 2.90 0.80
Glasgow 1.76 3.69 -1.90
Ospreys -0.83 0.94 -1.80
Scarlets -1.23 -0.77 -0.50
Connacht -1.60 1.72 -3.30
Lions -1.74 -3.91 2.20
Benetton -3.68 -4.50 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.42 -0.11 -7.30
Dragons -11.81 -6.92 -4.90
Zebre -16.99 -13.47 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby May 21 69 – 21 6.70 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Sharks May 21 24 – 21 9.00 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Bulls May 21 31 – 38 -0.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Lions May 22 11 – 21 -2.20 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Zebre May 22 22 – 20 24.00 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Stormers May 22 21 – 26 -1.30 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow May 22 28 – 11 5.60 TRUE
8 Leinster vs. Munster May 22 35 – 25 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 29

Here are the predictions for Week 29. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 04 Bulls 5.50
2 Ulster vs. Munster Jun 04 Ulster 2.50
3 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 05 Leinster 20.70
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Jun 05 Stormers 10.10

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.43 13.43 2.00
Blues 11.88 9.26 2.60
Hurricanes 8.16 8.28 -0.10
Chiefs 7.06 5.56 1.50
Brumbies 4.36 3.61 0.70
Highlanders 4.14 6.54 -2.40
Reds 0.33 1.37 -1.00
Waratahs -2.08 -9.00 6.90
Western Force -6.94 -4.96 -2.00
Rebels -8.27 -5.79 -2.50
Moana Pasifika -11.64 -10.00 -1.60
Fijian Drua -14.14 -10.00 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 27 28 – 15 22.20 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Chiefs May 27 34 – 35 -16.90 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Brumbies May 28 32 – 22 -12.20 FALSE
4 Waratahs vs. Blues May 28 17 – 20 -8.90 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Hurricanes May 28 27 – 22 -10.80 FALSE
6 Rebels vs. Highlanders May 29 31 – 30 -7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jun 03 Crusaders 21.10
2 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 04 Chiefs 15.10
3 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 04 Blues 13.20
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 Brumbies 2.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.02 7.25 -0.20
Cheetahs 4.39 -2.70 7.10
Sharks 0.78 4.13 -3.40
Pumas 0.63 -3.31 3.90
Griquas -0.10 -4.92 4.80
Western Province -3.36 1.42 -4.80
Lions -9.36 -1.88 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Pumas May 28 31 – 26 12.20 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs May 28 46 – 18 -4.60 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Western Province May 29 33 – 10 -5.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jun 04 Cheetahs 8.30
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Jun 04 Western Province 1.20
3 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 05 Sharks 14.60

 

May 26, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.96 13.43 2.50
Blues 12.35 9.26 3.10
Hurricanes 8.99 8.28 0.70
Chiefs 7.90 5.56 2.30
Brumbies 5.48 3.61 1.90
Highlanders 4.63 6.54 -1.90
Reds -0.19 1.37 -1.60
Waratahs -2.55 -9.00 6.40
Western Force -7.77 -4.96 -2.80
Rebels -8.76 -5.79 -3.00
Moana Pasifika -12.76 -10.00 -2.80
Fijian Drua -14.98 -10.00 -5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force May 24 28 – 48 -3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 27 Crusaders 22.20
2 Fijian Drua vs. Chiefs May 27 Chiefs -16.90
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Brumbies May 28 Brumbies -12.20
4 Waratahs vs. Blues May 28 Blues -8.90
5 Western Force vs. Hurricanes May 28 Hurricanes -10.80
6 Rebels vs. Highlanders May 29 Highlanders -7.40

 

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