United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 29
Team Ratings for Week 29
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 15.94 | 14.79 | 1.10 |
Munster | 10.63 | 10.69 | -0.10 |
Ulster | 8.17 | 7.41 | 0.80 |
Stormers | 7.23 | 0.00 | 7.20 |
Bulls | 7.22 | 3.65 | 3.60 |
Sharks | 6.73 | -0.07 | 6.80 |
Edinburgh | 3.66 | 2.90 | 0.80 |
Glasgow | 1.76 | 3.69 | -1.90 |
Ospreys | -0.83 | 0.94 | -1.80 |
Scarlets | -1.23 | -0.77 | -0.50 |
Connacht | -1.60 | 1.72 | -3.30 |
Lions | -1.74 | -3.91 | 2.20 |
Benetton | -3.68 | -4.50 | 0.80 |
Cardiff Rugby | -7.42 | -0.11 | -7.30 |
Dragons | -11.81 | -6.92 | -4.90 |
Zebre | -16.99 | -13.47 | -3.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby | May 21 | 69 – 21 | 6.70 | TRUE |
2 | Ulster vs. Sharks | May 21 | 24 – 21 | 9.00 | TRUE |
3 | Ospreys vs. Bulls | May 21 | 31 – 38 | -0.30 | TRUE |
4 | Dragons vs. Lions | May 22 | 11 – 21 | -2.20 | TRUE |
5 | Connacht vs. Zebre | May 22 | 22 – 20 | 24.00 | TRUE |
6 | Scarlets vs. Stormers | May 22 | 21 – 26 | -1.30 | TRUE |
7 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow | May 22 | 28 – 11 | 5.60 | TRUE |
8 | Leinster vs. Munster | May 22 | 35 – 25 | 10.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 29
Here are the predictions for Week 29. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Jun 04 | Bulls | 5.50 |
2 | Ulster vs. Munster | Jun 04 | Ulster | 2.50 |
3 | Leinster vs. Glasgow | Jun 05 | Leinster | 20.70 |
4 | Stormers vs. Edinburgh | Jun 05 | Stormers | 10.10 |
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