United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15
Team Ratings for Week 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 14.84 | 14.79 | 0.00 |
Munster | 9.87 | 10.69 | -0.80 |
Ulster | 7.71 | 7.41 | 0.30 |
Glasgow | 4.92 | 3.69 | 1.20 |
Edinburgh | 3.53 | 2.90 | 0.60 |
Stormers | 2.89 | 0.00 | 2.90 |
Connacht | 1.71 | 1.72 | -0.00 |
Bulls | 1.55 | 3.65 | -2.10 |
Sharks | 1.42 | -0.07 | 1.50 |
Ospreys | 0.18 | 0.94 | -0.80 |
Cardiff Rugby | -0.93 | -0.11 | -0.80 |
Scarlets | -1.39 | -0.77 | -0.60 |
Benetton | -3.05 | -4.50 | 1.40 |
Lions | -4.43 | -3.91 | -0.50 |
Dragons | -6.46 | -6.92 | 0.50 |
Zebre | -16.31 | -13.47 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 71 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Leinster vs. Edinburgh | Feb 12 | 26 – 7 | 17.50 | TRUE |
2 | Glasgow vs. Munster | Feb 12 | 13 – 11 | 1.40 | TRUE |
3 | Lions vs. Stormers | Feb 13 | 10 – 32 | -0.20 | TRUE |
4 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Feb 13 | 22 – 29 | 6.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre | Feb 19 | Cardiff Rugby | 21.90 |
2 | Munster vs. Edinburgh | Feb 19 | Munster | 12.80 |
3 | Glasgow vs. Benetton | Feb 20 | Glasgow | 14.50 |
4 | Leinster vs. Ospreys | Feb 20 | Leinster | 21.20 |
5 | Scarlets vs. Connacht | Feb 20 | Scarlets | 3.40 |
6 | Dragons vs. Ulster | Feb 21 | Ulster | -7.70 |
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