NRL Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 12.17 | 14.26 | -2.10 |
Storm | 11.06 | 19.20 | -8.10 |
Rabbitohs | 6.21 | 15.81 | -9.60 |
Sharks | 3.42 | -1.10 | 4.50 |
Roosters | 3.36 | 2.23 | 1.10 |
Cowboys | 3.31 | -12.27 | 15.60 |
Eels | 1.48 | 2.54 | -1.10 |
Sea Eagles | 1.29 | 10.99 | -9.70 |
Broncos | -0.93 | -8.90 | 8.00 |
Raiders | -0.93 | -1.10 | 0.20 |
Dragons | -4.32 | -7.99 | 3.70 |
Bulldogs | -5.13 | -10.25 | 5.10 |
Wests Tigers | -7.72 | -10.94 | 3.20 |
Titans | -7.76 | 1.05 | -8.80 |
Knights | -8.23 | -6.54 | -1.70 |
Warriors | -9.27 | -8.99 | -0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 152 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Jul 28 | 10 – 20 | 2.50 | FALSE |
2 | Warriors vs. Storm | Jul 29 | 12 – 24 | -15.40 | TRUE |
3 | Eels vs. Panthers | Jul 29 | 34 – 10 | -11.70 | FALSE |
4 | Titans vs. Raiders | Jul 30 | 24 – 36 | -2.60 | TRUE |
5 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 30 | 21 – 20 | 0.10 | TRUE |
6 | Broncos vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 30 | 18 – 32 | 12.90 | FALSE |
7 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Jul 31 | 10 – 24 | 1.80 | FALSE |
8 | Dragons vs. Cowboys | Jul 31 | 8 – 34 | -1.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Aug 04 | Roosters | 7.30 |
2 | Storm vs. Titans | Aug 05 | Storm | 21.80 |
3 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Aug 05 | Sea Eagles | 2.80 |
4 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Aug 06 | Rabbitohs | 21.00 |
5 | Raiders vs. Panthers | Aug 06 | Panthers | -10.10 |
6 | Sharks vs. Dragons | Aug 06 | Sharks | 10.70 |
7 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | Aug 07 | Cowboys | -5.40 |
8 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | Aug 07 | Wests Tigers | 3.50 |
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