March 29, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 6.92 6.78 0.10
Bordeaux-Begles 6.40 5.42 1.00
Stade Toulousain 6.16 6.83 -0.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.91 5.09 -0.20
Lyon Rugby 4.91 4.15 0.80
Racing-Metro 92 4.87 6.13 -1.30
Montpellier 3.35 -0.01 3.40
RC Toulonnais 2.14 1.82 0.30
Castres Olympique 0.95 0.94 0.00
Stade Francais Paris 0.91 1.20 -0.30
Section Paloise -1.43 -2.25 0.80
Brive -3.08 -3.19 0.10
USA Perpignan -3.15 -2.78 -0.40
Biarritz -6.51 -2.78 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 146 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Castres Olympique Mar 27 28 – 12 1.50 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 27 19 – 0 7.80 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Biarritz Mar 27 37 – 22 16.50 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Mar 27 27 – 22 8.60 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles Mar 27 18 – 31 2.00 FALSE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 27 32 – 22 3.00 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 28 27 – 19 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Section Paloise Apr 03 Biarritz 1.40
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle Apr 03 Bordeaux-Begles 6.00
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 03 Castres Olympique 1.30
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive Apr 03 Clermont Auvergne 14.50
5 Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais Apr 03 Lyon Rugby 9.30
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Apr 03 Montpellier -0.00
7 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Apr 04 Racing-Metro 92 10.50

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Postponed Game

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

There is one postponed game tonight. I will give predictions for the weekend games tomorrow.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.59 13.43 1.20
Blues 9.42 9.26 0.20
Chiefs 8.22 5.56 2.70
Hurricanes 6.98 8.28 -1.30
Highlanders 4.40 6.54 -2.10
Brumbies 3.81 3.61 0.20
Reds 1.83 1.37 0.50
Western Force -3.91 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -6.95 -9.00 2.00
Rebels -7.92 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -10.53 -10.00 -0.50
Fijian Drua -11.63 -10.00 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 24 – 19 -14.00 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 42 – 27 8.10 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 26 25 – 32 1.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Mar 26 19 – 34 0.80 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 26 32 – 20 14.70 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Mar 27 38 – 39 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 29 Blues -20.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.45 -5.00 9.40
Leicester Tigers 3.93 -6.14 10.10
Exeter Chiefs 2.72 7.35 -4.60
Sale Sharks 2.21 4.96 -2.80
Gloucester 1.33 -1.02 2.40
Harlequins 1.10 -1.08 2.20
Northampton Saints 1.04 -2.48 3.50
Wasps 0.77 5.66 -4.90
Bristol -2.63 1.28 -3.90
London Irish -2.73 -8.05 5.30
Bath -5.52 2.14 -7.70
Newcastle Falcons -7.65 -3.52 -4.10
Worcester Warriors -10.61 -5.71 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 123 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 27 24 – 24 -3.80 FALSE
2 London Irish vs. Northampton Saints Mar 27 22 – 42 3.00 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Mar 27 27 – 23 12.60 TRUE
4 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 27 27 – 24 14.20 TRUE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 28 17 – 22 4.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 02 Sale Sharks 2.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 03 Exeter Chiefs 12.70
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Apr 03 Gloucester 5.10
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 03 Northampton Saints 8.20
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 03 Worcester Warriors 1.50
6 London Irish vs. Harlequins Apr 04 London Irish 0.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.37 19.20 -2.80
Rabbitohs 14.35 15.81 -1.50
Panthers 14.01 14.26 -0.30
Sea Eagles 7.58 10.99 -3.40
Eels 3.59 2.54 1.10
Roosters 2.24 2.23 0.00
Sharks 0.25 -1.10 1.40
Titans 0.05 1.05 -1.00
Raiders -2.43 -1.10 -1.30
Knights -3.91 -6.54 2.60
Dragons -7.36 -7.99 0.60
Warriors -8.47 -8.99 0.50
Broncos -8.62 -8.90 0.30
Cowboys -9.01 -12.27 3.30
Bulldogs -9.25 -10.25 1.00
Wests Tigers -11.40 -10.94 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 24 12 – 36 -2.00 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 25 12 – 16 3.80 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 25 28 – 16 15.70 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Knights Mar 26 38 – 20 21.50 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Eels Mar 26 24 – 28 18.40 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 26 24 – 22 0.20 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 27 12 – 38 7.10 FALSE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 13 – 12 22.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 31 Titans 14.50
2 Sharks vs. Knights Apr 01 Sharks 7.20
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 01 Panthers 2.70
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 02 Warriors 5.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 02 Sea Eagles 13.00
6 Cowboys vs. Roosters Apr 02 Roosters -8.20
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 03 Storm 28.60
8 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 03 Eels 14.00

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 10.49 7.25 3.20
Cheetahs 5.03 -2.70 7.70
Sharks 3.36 4.13 -0.80
Pumas -1.87 -3.31 1.40
Western Province -2.45 1.42 -3.90
Griquas -2.58 -4.92 2.30
Lions -11.98 -1.88 -10.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Mar 24 11 – 37 8.80 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Mar 24 15 – 29 5.90 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Mar 24 10 – 40 -15.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Apr 07 Pumas 14.60
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Apr 07 Sharks -1.40
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Apr 07 Bulls 17.40

 

March 23, 2022

Briefly

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  • BBC’s More or Less on the actual evidence for mask use. Probably not 53% reduction in risk. But is it worthwhile? Yes, they say.
  • I’m the The Conversation on the benefits of vaccines: modest against infection but pretty good against serious illness
  • People are (quantatively) bad at estimating the population income distribution — and everything else
  • The USA may be about to stop daylight saving time changes. The Washington Post shows where the impact will fall if they do.  It’s probably a good idea, but it’s going to be a pain for some people.
  • Trip planning for Ancient Rome
  • The problem with caring too much about university rankings is that it may be easier to improve the ranking than to improve the university. Columbia University allegedly submitted dodgy data to US News & World Report to get a better ranking.  Now, there are differences between universities, on lots of metrics, and it’s good for people outside the academic or social elites to be able to learn about these differences. The problem is folding them into a ranking and then treating the ranking as the important thing.  And if you’re running a ranking system as valuable as that one, you should probably be doing a bit of data checking.
  • “When covid testing flipped to home RATs, there was a big drop in the children reported as having covid relative to parents compared to professional tests. Then came people sharing advice on how to swab kids, then easier reporting, and now we seem to be back where we were.” @thoughtfulnz on Twitter
  • Phrasing of poll questions is important. Here’s one from the UK about a “no-fly zone in Ukraine” that lays out some of the risks and gets different results from polls that didn’t. (I’m also glad to see a high “Don’t Know” proportion reported.)
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March 22, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 20

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Team Ratings for Week 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.15 14.79 0.40
Munster 10.44 10.69 -0.20
Ulster 9.37 7.41 2.00
Stormers 5.42 0.00 5.40
Bulls 4.95 3.65 1.30
Edinburgh 4.56 2.90 1.70
Glasgow 3.91 3.69 0.20
Sharks 3.64 -0.07 3.70
Connacht 0.19 1.72 -1.50
Ospreys -0.86 0.94 -1.80
Lions -2.31 -3.91 1.60
Scarlets -2.88 -0.77 -2.10
Cardiff Rugby -3.74 -0.11 -3.60
Benetton -5.26 -4.50 -0.80
Dragons -8.48 -6.92 -1.60
Zebre -18.08 -13.47 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Scarlets Mar 19 57 – 12 11.30 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Mar 19 30 – 17 3.20 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Zebre Mar 20 38 – 6 27.40 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Munster Mar 20 23 – 21 -7.30 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 21 40 – 3 13.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Ospreys Mar 26 Lions 5.00
2 Munster vs. Benetton Mar 26 Munster 22.20
3 Stormers vs. Ulster Mar 27 Stormers 2.50
4 Zebre vs. Scarlets Mar 27 Scarlets -8.70
5 Sharks vs. Edinburgh Mar 27 Sharks 5.60
6 Bulls vs. Dragons Mar 27 Bulls 19.90
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Mar 27 Glasgow -1.20
8 Connacht vs. Leinster Mar 27 Leinster -10.00

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 6.53 6.78 -0.30
Stade Toulousain 6.15 6.83 -0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 5.90 5.42 0.50
Clermont Auvergne 5.26 5.09 0.20
Racing-Metro 92 5.26 6.13 -0.90
Lyon Rugby 4.92 4.15 0.80
Montpellier 3.43 -0.01 3.40
RC Toulonnais 1.79 1.82 -0.00
Castres Olympique 1.44 0.94 0.50
Stade Francais Paris 1.41 1.20 0.20
Section Paloise -1.25 -2.25 1.00
USA Perpignan -3.33 -2.78 -0.60
Brive -3.56 -3.19 -0.40
Biarritz -6.58 -2.78 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 139 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Mar 20 41 – 11 -0.00 FALSE
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Mar 21 35 – 10 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Castres Olympique Mar 27 Brive 1.50
2 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Mar 27 La Rochelle 7.80
3 Montpellier vs. Biarritz Mar 27 Montpellier 16.50
4 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Mar 27 Section Paloise 8.60
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles Mar 27 Stade Francais Paris 2.00
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Mar 27 RC Toulonnais 3.00
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Rugby Mar 28 Stade Toulousain 7.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

I have just updated the prediction for the Force vs Brumbies which is to be played in Perth. The locations of the games between these two teams were swapped around because of the difficulty of travel to WA.

I have included a post hoc prediction for the rescheduled Round 2 game between the Chiefs and Moana Pasifika, which hadn’t been decided on when I posted last week. I will try and update later this week if there are cancelled games or rescheduled games because of Covid.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.75 13.43 0.30
Chiefs 9.05 5.56 3.50
Blues 8.93 9.26 -0.30
Hurricanes 7.95 8.28 -0.30
Highlanders 4.89 6.54 -1.70
Brumbies 3.93 3.61 0.30
Reds 2.05 1.37 0.70
Western Force -4.03 -4.96 0.90
Waratahs -7.17 -9.00 1.80
Rebels -8.47 -5.79 -2.70
Fijian Drua -11.08 -10.00 -1.10
Moana Pasifika -11.51 -10.00 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 25 59 – 12 16.40 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 18 16 – 12 8.00 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 19 18 – 20 -1.50 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 19 24 – 19 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 Hurricanes -14.00
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 Rebels 8.10
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 26 Highlanders 1.50
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Mar 26 Chiefs 0.80
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 26 Reds 14.70
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Mar 27 Brumbies -2.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

Unfortunately I entered my updating parameter incorrectly when preparing the predictions for the NRL, which I only realised when looking over the predictions for this round. I misplaced the decimal point so the parameter was out by a factor of 10. The predictions for Round 1 were not affected but those for Round 2 are. The updated values for those predictions are below. If you check the posted predictions for Round 2 you will see that there were extreme changes in the ratings from Round 1 to Round 2, which should not happen.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 17.69 19.20 -1.50
Rabbitohs 14.65 15.81 -1.20
Panthers 14.29 14.26 0.00
Sea Eagles 8.83 10.99 -2.20
Eels 2.28 2.54 -0.30
Roosters 1.95 2.23 -0.30
Titans 0.20 1.05 -0.80
Sharks -1.04 -1.10 0.10
Raiders -2.58 -1.10 -1.50
Knights -4.18 -6.54 2.40
Dragons -6.07 -7.99 1.90
Broncos -6.76 -8.90 2.10
Warriors -9.09 -8.99 -0.10
Bulldogs -10.51 -10.25 -0.30
Wests Tigers -10.77 -10.94 0.20
Cowboys -10.87 -12.27 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Mar 17 15 – 14 7.00 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Mar 18 16 – 20 -19.20 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Mar 18 26 – 12 -6.30 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Mar 19 20 – 18 16.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Eels Mar 19 18 – 16 -0.80 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 19 26 – 6 -8.60 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Mar 20 26 – 4 7.90 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Mar 20 10 – 16 0.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 24 Sharks -2.00
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 25 Wests Tigers 3.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 25 Rabbitohs 15.70
4 Panthers vs. Knights Mar 26 Panthers 21.50
5 Storm vs. Eels Mar 26 Storm 18.40
6 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 26 Raiders 0.20
7 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 27 Broncos 7.10
8 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 Sea Eagles 22.30

 

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