September 20, 2022

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.21 19.20 -8.00
Panthers 11.14 14.26 -3.10
Rabbitohs 10.51 15.81 -5.30
Roosters 7.64 2.23 5.40
Eels 6.93 2.54 4.40
Cowboys 6.78 -12.27 19.00
Sharks 4.50 -1.10 5.60
Raiders 1.98 -1.10 3.10
Dragons -2.73 -7.99 5.30
Sea Eagles -5.26 10.99 -16.30
Broncos -5.92 -8.90 3.00
Titans -6.32 1.05 -7.40
Bulldogs -8.29 -10.25 2.00
Knights -9.53 -6.54 -3.00
Warriors -11.12 -8.99 -2.10
Wests Tigers -13.52 -10.94 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 135 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Raiders Sep 16 40 – 4 4.40 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Sep 17 12 – 38 -3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Eels Sep 23 Cowboys 2.80
2 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 24 Panthers 0.60

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.83 16.79 -1.00
Ulster 9.81 9.27 0.50
Munster 8.98 9.78 -0.80
Bulls 8.35 7.84 0.50
Stormers 7.14 7.14 0.00
Sharks 6.95 6.95 -0.00
Edinburgh 4.34 3.58 0.80
Ospreys -0.47 -0.83 0.40
Glasgow -0.85 -0.00 -0.80
Scarlets -1.59 -1.23 -0.40
Connacht -2.14 -1.60 -0.50
Lions -2.26 -1.74 -0.50
Benetton -2.84 -3.68 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -6.62 -7.42 0.80
Dragons -12.57 -11.81 -0.80
Zebre -16.03 -16.99 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Glasgow Sep 17 33 – 11 0.80 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster Sep 17 20 – 13 -12.70 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Leinster Sep 17 29 – 33 -29.30 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Bulls Sep 18 15 – 31 -5.60 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Sep 18 23 – 23 3.60 FALSE
6 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Sep 18 44 – 6 19.90 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Connacht Sep 18 36 – 10 14.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Sep 24 Sharks -18.50
2 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 24 Glasgow 10.30
3 Leinster vs. Benetton Sep 24 Leinster 23.20
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster Sep 24 Ulster -6.90
5 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 24 Bulls 8.50
6 Stormers vs. Connacht Sep 25 Stormers 13.80
7 Ospreys vs. Lions Sep 25 Ospreys 6.30
8 Dragons vs. Munster Sep 26 Munster -17.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.47 6.88 0.60
Stade Toulousain 6.61 6.34 0.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.18 5.27 -0.10
Montpellier 4.80 4.18 0.60
Racing 92 4.57 4.86 -0.30
Clermont 3.92 4.05 -0.10
Toulon 3.44 4.09 -0.70
Lyon 2.74 3.10 -0.40
Castres Olympique 2.54 2.87 -0.30
Stade Francais -0.78 -1.05 0.30
Section Paloise -1.76 -2.12 0.40
USA Perpignan -3.71 -2.75 -1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -3.87 -4.26 0.40
Brive -3.89 -4.20 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Sep 17 33 – 12 8.30 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Montpellier Sep 18 26 – 31 -1.90 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan Sep 18 43 – 8 16.50 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Sep 18 32 – 19 7.80 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Sep 18 26 – 16 9.50 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 18 26 – 16 -2.70 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Clermont Sep 19 30 – 29 6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Sep 24 Toulon -0.70
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 25 Bordeaux Begles -2.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Sep 25 Castres Olympique 12.90
4 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Sep 25 Lyon 10.00
5 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Sep 25 Montpellier 13.10
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Sep 25 Stade Toulousain 8.50
7 Clermont vs. La Rochelle Sep 26 Clermont 2.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 7.55 7.93 -0.40
Gloucester 5.92 5.92 0.00
Sale Sharks 4.61 4.14 0.50
Northampton Saints 4.35 3.99 0.40
Exeter Chiefs 3.95 3.67 0.30
Harlequins 3.06 3.92 -0.90
Wasps -0.37 0.77 -1.10
Bristol -1.30 -2.43 1.10
London Irish -2.01 -1.65 -0.40
Saracens -4.14 -5.00 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -8.38 -8.76 0.40
Bath -9.63 -9.15 -0.50
Worcester Warriors -12.56 -12.27 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Sep 17 38 – 22 10.10 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Sep 18 20 – 37 -8.80 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Saracens Sep 18 27 – 30 13.40 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 18 36 – 21 21.20 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 18 8 – 23 7.70 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 19 21 – 36 -11.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 24 Wasps -4.80
2 Bristol vs. London Irish Sep 25 Bristol 5.20
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 25 Northampton Saints 1.30
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Sep 25 Gloucester -5.60
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 25 Worcester Warriors 0.30
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Sep 26 Exeter Chiefs 5.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 6.67 2.00 4.70
Hawke’s Bay 5.62 5.87 -0.20
Waikato 5.49 2.00 3.50
North Harbour 4.26 2.31 1.90
Bay of Plenty 4.15 0.10 4.10
Auckland 4.12 4.50 -0.40
Wellington 3.03 3.58 -0.50
Tasman 2.97 5.94 -3.00
Taranaki -0.54 3.63 -4.20
Otago -1.00 -1.63 0.60
Counties Manukau -5.25 -6.32 1.10
Northland -5.81 -6.68 0.90
Southland -10.09 -7.01 -3.10
Manawatu -11.29 -5.97 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 16 34 – 24 14.10 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 17 39 – 44 -10.50 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Tasman Sep 17 30 – 27 3.80 TRUE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Sep 17 12 – 19 6.50 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 18 54 – 21 15.00 TRUE
6 Otago vs. Waikato Sep 18 27 – 20 -5.30 FALSE
7 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 18 21 – 48 -5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 21 Taranaki 7.20

 

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September 19, 2022

After the Great Resignation

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This story is a month old now, but Stuff served it up to me again, and I didn’t write about it earlier. The headline is Workers are discovering the ‘Great Regret’ of quitting their jobs, and the key data-based line is

In the United States, a survey of more than 15,000 workers by job-search platform Joblist found 26 percent of workers who quit during the Great Resignation regret their decision.

I’ve edited that quote so that the link works, which it doesn’t on Stuff or newsroom. If you follow the link, you find that is basically what Joblist says in its writeup of the survey.  If you are naturally suspicious or nerdy enough to read the Methodology section at the bottom of the page, though, it looks a bit different

We surveyed 628 job seekers who quit their previous job about why they quit and whether they regret their decision.

So, the 26% is of 628 people, not more than 15,000.  More specifically, it’s 628 job-seekers. The target population doesn’t appear to include people who already had a new job or who weren’t looking for one — two groups that you’d expect to have fewer regrets.

The Methodology section doesn’t say how they chose the people to survey, though it does say This data has not been weighted, and it comes with some limitations. At best, that suggests a survey with no attempt to compensate for non-response. At worst, it could be a bogus self-selected straw poll.

September 17, 2022

Briefly

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  • From Radio NZ’s series on the lotto: “When contacted by RNZ, Lotto said it would now no longer claim that there were lucky stores. “We recently carried out a piece of work looking at the use of the word ‘luck’ in relation to our products and as a result of this work have decided we will not in the future put ‘lucky stores’ or ‘lucky regions’ in press releases,” head of corporate communications Lucy Fullarton said.”.  As StatsChat readers will remember, we’ve been attacking this use of “lucky” for a while.
  • On the other hand, Lotto doesn’t need to specifically make these claims any more, since they’re already  well known. For example, see today’s Herald, “Kiwis are rushing into lucky Lotto stores ahead of tonight’s $20 million jackpot draw”, naming the same Hastings pharmacy as the Radio NZ story did.
  • Good article by Jamie Morton in the Herald on interesting clinical trials in New Zealand.
  • The UK Office of National Statistics has a life expectancy calculator — if, to pick an example almost at random, you wanted to find out how long a 73-year old man would be expected to live
  • There’s a claim out there that the median book only sells twelve copies.  As you’d expect, it’s more complicated than that
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September 14, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.22 2.00 5.20
Hawke’s Bay 6.32 5.87 0.50
Waikato 6.15 2.00 4.20
Auckland 4.20 4.50 -0.30
Bay of Plenty 3.27 0.10 3.20
North Harbour 3.27 2.31 1.00
Tasman 2.89 5.94 -3.10
Wellington 2.32 3.58 -1.30
Taranaki -0.14 3.63 -3.80
Otago -1.66 -1.63 -0.00
Northland -4.82 -6.68 1.90
Counties Manukau -5.80 -6.32 0.50
Southland -9.21 -7.01 -2.20
Manawatu -11.69 -5.97 -5.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 47 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Southland Sep 14 54 – 24 16.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 16 Taranaki 14.10
2 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 17 Canterbury -10.50
3 Auckland vs. Tasman Sep 17 Auckland 3.80
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Sep 17 Hawke’s Bay 6.50
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 18 Bay of Plenty 15.00
6 Otago vs. Waikato Sep 18 Waikato -5.30
7 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 18 North Harbour -5.60

 

September 13, 2022

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.21 19.20 -8.00
Panthers 11.14 14.26 -3.10
Rabbitohs 9.18 15.81 -6.60
Roosters 7.64 2.23 5.40
Cowboys 6.78 -12.27 19.00
Sharks 5.83 -1.10 6.90
Eels 5.14 2.54 2.60
Raiders 3.77 -1.10 4.90
Dragons -2.73 -7.99 5.30
Sea Eagles -5.26 10.99 -16.30
Broncos -5.92 -8.90 3.00
Titans -6.32 1.05 -7.40
Bulldogs -8.29 -10.25 2.00
Knights -9.53 -6.54 -3.00
Warriors -11.12 -8.99 -2.10
Wests Tigers -13.52 -10.94 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 09 27 – 8 7.60 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 10 20 – 28 12.90 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 10 30 – 32 2.80 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sep 11 14 – 30 3.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Raiders Sep 16 Eels 4.40
2 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Sep 17 Rabbitohs -3.40

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.79 16.79 0.00
Munster 9.78 9.78 -0.00
Ulster 9.27 9.27 0.00
Bulls 7.84 7.84 0.00
Stormers 7.14 7.14 0.00
Sharks 6.95 6.95 -0.00
Edinburgh 3.58 3.58 0.00
Glasgow -0.00 -0.00 0.00
Ospreys -0.83 -0.83 -0.00
Scarlets -1.23 -1.23 0.00
Connacht -1.60 -1.60 -0.00
Lions -1.74 -1.74 0.00
Benetton -3.68 -3.68 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -7.42 -7.42 0.00
Dragons -11.81 -11.81 0.00
Zebre -16.99 -16.99 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Glasgow Sep 17 Benetton 0.80
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster Sep 17 Munster -12.70
3 Zebre vs. Leinster Sep 17 Leinster -29.30
4 Lions vs. Bulls Sep 18 Bulls -5.60
5 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Sep 18 Scarlets 3.60
6 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Sep 18 Edinburgh 19.90
7 Ulster vs. Connacht Sep 18 Ulster 14.90

 

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