Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Saracens | 4.93 | -5.00 | 9.90 |
Leicester Tigers | 3.93 | -6.14 | 10.10 |
Exeter Chiefs | 3.15 | 7.35 | -4.20 |
Harlequins | 2.44 | -1.08 | 3.50 |
Sale Sharks | 1.73 | 4.96 | -3.20 |
Northampton Saints | 1.55 | -2.48 | 4.00 |
Wasps | 1.39 | 5.66 | -4.30 |
Gloucester | 0.72 | -1.02 | 1.70 |
Bristol | -3.14 | 1.28 | -4.40 |
London Irish | -4.08 | -8.05 | 4.00 |
Bath | -5.95 | 2.14 | -8.10 |
Newcastle Falcons | -5.95 | -3.52 | -2.40 |
Worcester Warriors | -12.31 | -5.71 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 129 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sale Sharks vs. Saracens | Apr 02 | 12 – 18 | 2.30 | FALSE |
2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Apr 03 | 42 – 22 | 12.70 | TRUE |
3 | Gloucester vs. Wasps | Apr 03 | 21 – 27 | 5.10 | FALSE |
4 | Northampton Saints vs. Bristol | Apr 03 | 39 – 22 | 8.20 | TRUE |
5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 03 | 10 – 45 | 1.50 | FALSE |
6 | London Irish vs. Harlequins | Apr 04 | 14 – 41 | 0.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bristol vs. Gloucester | Apr 23 | Bristol | 0.60 |
2 | Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish | Apr 23 | Newcastle Falcons | 2.60 |
3 | Bath vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 24 | Northampton Saints | -3.00 |
4 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | Apr 24 | Harlequins | 3.00 |
5 | Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors | Apr 24 | Wasps | 18.20 |
6 | Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 25 | Saracens | 6.30 |
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