May 24, 2022

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.66 7.25 0.40
Cheetahs 6.71 -2.70 9.40
Sharks 0.78 4.13 -3.40
Pumas -0.01 -3.31 3.30
Western Province -1.28 1.42 -2.70
Griquas -2.42 -4.92 2.50
Lions -11.44 -1.88 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Western Province May 14 17 – 23 8.00 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks May 14 44 – 15 7.10 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Lions May 15 43 – 37 26.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Pumas May 28 Bulls 12.20
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs May 28 Cheetahs -4.60
3 Lions vs. Western Province May 29 Western Province -5.70

 

May 20, 2022

Briefly

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  • The WHO has released new estimates of Covid mortality.  Here’s Jon Wakefield, a statistician at the University of Washington, talking about them on PBS Newshour, Radio New Zealand, BBC’s More or Less, and Checks and Balance, at The Wire in India
  • A nice new Australian electoral map, just in time for the election
  • Some interesting sound-based data display from NASA. I’m not sure how well it works as communication
  • The making of a data visualisation — all the plots that Georgios Karamanis made in the process of looking at some data and making a final graphic
  • Media Council ruling on a terrible graph accompanying a column by Shane Reti in the Northern Advocate: “Opinion pieces must be based on a foundation of fact, and should not contain clear errors of fact.  There is no doubt that the graphs presented by Dr Reti as justifying his headline and comment in his column were misleading in that they did not fairly show the trend in cases through the period.”
  • The sources of data for online panel surveys are more complicated and messy than many people expect: “We began wondering about survey data sourcing when we noticed that since 2018, the Cooperative Election Study  has included data from Dynata, Critical Mix, and Prodege. This was a shock to us because among academic researchers, the Cooperative Election Study is widely understood as a survey conducted by YouGov“
  • A Twitter thread about Tesco Clubcard, perhaps the first store loyalty programme to focus on data collection
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May 17, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 28

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.97 14.79 1.20
Munster 10.59 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.71 7.41 1.30
Stormers 6.90 0.00 6.90
Bulls 6.62 3.65 3.00
Sharks 6.19 -0.07 6.30
Edinburgh 3.03 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.39 3.69 -1.30
Ospreys -0.23 0.94 -1.20
Connacht -0.53 1.72 -2.20
Scarlets -0.90 -0.77 -0.10
Lions -2.45 -3.91 1.50
Benetton -5.45 -4.50 -1.00
Cardiff Rugby -5.66 -0.11 -5.60
Dragons -11.11 -6.92 -4.20
Zebre -18.06 -13.47 -4.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby May 14 18 – 19 -0.30 TRUE
2 Benetton vs. Zebre May 15 39 – 17 16.60 TRUE

Predictions for Week 28

Here are the predictions for Week 28. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby May 21 Benetton 6.70
2 Ulster vs. Sharks May 21 Ulster 9.00
3 Ospreys vs. Bulls May 21 Bulls -0.30
4 Dragons vs. Lions May 22 Lions -2.20
5 Connacht vs. Zebre May 22 Connacht 24.00
6 Scarlets vs. Stormers May 22 Stormers -1.30
7 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow May 22 Edinburgh 5.60
8 Leinster vs. Munster May 22 Leinster 10.40

NRL Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.70 19.20 -0.50
Panthers 15.98 14.26 1.70
Rabbitohs 8.76 15.81 -7.10
Sea Eagles 3.97 10.99 -7.00
Eels 3.48 2.54 0.90
Roosters 2.61 2.23 0.40
Sharks 0.52 -1.10 1.60
Broncos -2.27 -8.90 6.60
Cowboys -2.62 -12.27 9.60
Raiders -2.97 -1.10 -1.90
Titans -3.59 1.05 -4.60
Dragons -7.45 -7.99 0.50
Warriors -7.49 -8.99 1.50
Knights -9.16 -6.54 -2.60
Wests Tigers -9.74 -10.94 1.20
Bulldogs -10.72 -10.25 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 13 6 – 16 -0.30 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 13 0 – 38 8.30 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs May 14 30 – 32 -18.20 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Dragons May 14 20 – 16 3.80 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Panthers May 14 6 – 32 6.40 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Raiders May 15 10 – 30 6.50 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Eels May 15 31 – 24 -2.00 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 15 12 – 36 -4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Broncos May 19 Broncos -3.90
2 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 20 Wests Tigers 4.00
3 Eels vs. Sea Eagles May 20 Eels 2.50
4 Dragons vs. Warriors May 21 Dragons 5.50
5 Cowboys vs. Storm May 21 Storm -18.30
6 Roosters vs. Panthers May 21 Panthers -10.40
7 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 22 Rabbitohs 14.70
8 Titans vs. Sharks May 22 Sharks -1.10

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.79 13.43 1.40
Blues 12.25 9.26 3.00
Hurricanes 9.06 8.28 0.80
Chiefs 7.25 5.56 1.70
Highlanders 5.99 6.54 -0.60
Brumbies 5.58 3.61 2.00
Reds 0.35 1.37 -1.00
Waratahs -3.90 -9.00 5.10
Western Force -8.00 -4.96 -3.00
Rebels -8.83 -5.79 -3.00
Moana Pasifika -12.42 -10.00 -2.40
Fijian Drua -13.82 -10.00 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Western Force May 13 61 – 10 16.80 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 13 26 – 37 -2.20 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika May 14 34 – 19 3.30 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Reds May 14 53 – 26 16.70 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes May 14 18 – 22 -7.50 TRUE
6 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 15 30 – 33 -11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Fijian Drua May 20 Crusaders 34.60
2 Reds vs. Moana Pasifika May 20 Reds 18.80
3 Chiefs vs. Western Force May 21 Chiefs 21.30
4 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 21 Hurricanes 23.90
5 Brumbies vs. Blues May 21 Blues -0.70
6 Highlanders vs. Waratahs May 22 Highlanders 15.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.66 7.25 0.40
Cheetahs 6.71 -2.70 9.40
Sharks 0.78 4.13 -3.40
Pumas -0.01 -3.31 3.30
Western Province -1.28 1.42 -2.70
Griquas -2.42 -4.92 2.50
Lions -11.44 -1.88 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Western Province May 14 17 – 23 8.00 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks May 14 44 – 15 7.10 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Lions May 15 43 – 37 26.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Pumas May 28 Bulls 12.20
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs May 28 Cheetahs -4.60
3 Lions vs. Western Province May 29 Western Province -5.70

 

May 10, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.53 19.20 1.30
Panthers 14.15 14.26 -0.10
Rabbitohs 9.74 15.81 -6.10
Sea Eagles 6.49 10.99 -4.50
Eels 4.06 2.54 1.50
Sharks 2.05 -1.10 3.20
Roosters 2.03 2.23 -0.20
Titans -3.61 1.05 -4.70
Cowboys -3.76 -12.27 8.50
Raiders -4.50 -1.10 -3.40
Broncos -4.79 -8.90 4.10
Dragons -7.44 -7.99 0.60
Warriors -8.47 -8.99 0.50
Wests Tigers -8.60 -10.94 2.30
Knights -9.78 -6.54 -3.20
Bulldogs -10.10 -10.25 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 05 12 – 32 22.20 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 06 14 – 4 8.30 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels May 06 20 – 22 15.20 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers May 07 36 – 22 18.90 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Titans May 07 44 – 16 6.10 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Knights May 07 36 – 16 7.50 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Dragons May 08 42 – 6 30.00 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Warriors May 08 29 – 10 15.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 13 Knights -0.30
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 13 Sea Eagles 8.30
3 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs May 14 Rabbitohs -18.20
4 Titans vs. Dragons May 14 Titans 3.80
5 Storm vs. Panthers May 14 Storm 6.40
6 Sharks vs. Raiders May 15 Sharks 6.50
7 Roosters vs. Eels May 15 Eels -2.00
8 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 15 Cowboys -4.80

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 27

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Team Ratings for Week 27

There was one rescheduled game last week which I didn’t pick up so wasn’t in my forecast. I have added it in the results below.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.97 14.79 1.20
Munster 10.59 10.69 -0.10
Ulster 8.71 7.41 1.30
Stormers 6.90 0.00 6.90
Bulls 6.62 3.65 3.00
Sharks 6.19 -0.07 6.30
Edinburgh 3.03 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.39 3.69 -1.30
Ospreys -0.23 0.94 -1.20
Connacht -0.53 1.72 -2.20
Scarlets -0.90 -0.77 -0.10
Lions -2.45 -3.91 1.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.72 -0.11 -5.60
Benetton -5.93 -4.50 -1.40
Dragons -11.05 -6.92 -4.10
Zebre -17.57 -13.47 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 134 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre May 07 42 – 14 17.10 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Dragons May 09 50 – 31 15.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 27

Here are the predictions for Week 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby May 14 Cardiff Rugby -0.30
2 Benetton vs. Zebre May 15 Benetton 16.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.29 13.43 0.90
Blues 11.67 9.26 2.40
Hurricanes 9.35 8.28 1.10
Chiefs 7.72 5.56 2.20
Brumbies 6.09 3.61 2.50
Highlanders 4.37 6.54 -2.20
Reds 0.93 1.37 -0.40
Waratahs -4.19 -9.00 4.80
Western Force -6.39 -4.96 -1.40
Rebels -9.30 -5.79 -3.50
Moana Pasifika -11.77 -10.00 -1.80
Fijian Drua -14.46 -10.00 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Rebels May 06 71 – 28 25.10 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders May 06 19 – 27 3.90 FALSE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs May 07 20 – 26 -0.70 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Brumbies May 07 28 – 38 9.60 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Crusaders May 07 15 – 53 -12.10 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua May 08 67 – 5 26.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Western Force May 13 Highlanders 16.80
2 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 13 Crusaders -2.20
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika May 14 Fijian Drua 3.30
4 Blues vs. Reds May 14 Blues 16.70
5 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes May 14 Hurricanes -7.50
6 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 15 Chiefs -11.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 9.24 7.25 2.00
Cheetahs 5.06 -2.70 7.80
Sharks 2.43 4.13 -1.70
Pumas 1.13 -3.31 4.40
Griquas -2.42 -4.92 2.50
Western Province -2.42 1.42 -3.80
Lions -13.02 -1.88 -11.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Cheetahs May 07 26 – 35 -14.60 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Pumas May 07 10 – 20 8.70 FALSE
3 Bulls vs. Griquas May 08 48 – 38 17.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Western Province May 14 Pumas 8.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks May 14 Cheetahs 7.10
3 Bulls vs. Lions May 15 Bulls 26.80

 

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