October 20, 2022

Bus cancellations

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The friendly StatsChat busbots have been tracking cancellations as well as delays: for the past month in Auckland and longer in Wellington.  Here’s a summary of the Auckland cancellations

They seem to be up again, which might not be entirely unconnected with the current increase in Covid cases. Perhaps more to the point, that’s a lot of missing buses.

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October 18, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.72 16.79 -0.10
Ulster 9.99 9.27 0.70
Stormers 7.49 7.14 0.40
Munster 7.33 9.78 -2.50
Bulls 6.39 7.84 -1.40
Sharks 6.07 6.95 -0.90
Edinburgh 5.10 3.58 1.50
Lions -0.21 -1.74 1.50
Ospreys -0.56 -0.83 0.30
Glasgow -0.66 -0.00 -0.70
Connacht -1.35 -1.60 0.20
Scarlets -2.73 -1.23 -1.50
Benetton -3.66 -3.68 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -6.80 -7.42 0.60
Dragons -11.95 -11.81 -0.10
Zebre -15.13 -16.99 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 15 0 – 10 -15.10 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Stormers Oct 15 16 – 16 -4.40 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Ulster Oct 15 37 – 39 -6.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Glasgow Oct 16 40 – 12 9.70 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Oct 16 31 – 14 8.20 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Oct 16 53 – 8 10.90 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Bulls Oct 16 31 – 17 4.50 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 16 36 – 12 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Bulls Oct 22 Bulls -5.50
2 Connacht vs. Scarlets Oct 22 Connacht 5.90
3 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 22 Edinburgh -15.70
4 Lions vs. Glasgow Oct 23 Lions 5.00
5 Sharks vs. Ulster Oct 23 Sharks 0.60
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers Oct 23 Stormers -9.80
7 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 23 Leinster 13.40
8 Dragons vs. Ospreys Oct 24 Ospreys -7.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.29 6.34 2.90
La Rochelle 6.91 6.88 0.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.36 5.27 -0.90
Clermont 4.31 4.05 0.30
Toulon 4.07 4.09 -0.00
Montpellier 3.93 4.18 -0.30
Racing 92 3.90 4.86 -1.00
Lyon 2.94 3.10 -0.20
Castres Olympique 2.77 2.87 -0.10
Stade Francais 1.14 -1.05 2.20
Aviron Bayonnais -2.95 -4.26 1.30
Section Paloise -3.01 -2.12 -0.90
USA Perpignan -4.78 -2.75 -2.00
Brive -5.63 -4.20 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Oct 16 29 – 17 6.40 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 16 7 – 45 -6.50 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais Oct 16 39 – 22 11.70 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Lyon Oct 16 26 – 33 8.50 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Oct 16 29 – 31 2.80 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Oct 16 10 – 20 -1.80 TRUE
7 La Rochelle vs. Toulon Oct 17 32 – 5 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. USA Perpignan Oct 23 Aviron Bayonnais 8.30
2 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 23 Clermont 6.50
3 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Oct 23 Lyon 12.40
4 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Oct 23 Racing 92 6.50
5 Stade Francais vs. Brive Oct 23 Stade Francais 13.30
6 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Oct 23 Toulon 7.80
7 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle Oct 24 Stade Toulousain 8.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 6.49 4.14 2.40
Leicester Tigers 6.23 7.93 -1.70
Exeter Chiefs 5.27 3.67 1.60
Gloucester 4.24 5.92 -1.70
Harlequins 2.92 3.92 -1.00
Northampton Saints 2.50 3.99 -1.50
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Saracens -1.32 -5.00 3.70
London Irish -2.14 -1.65 -0.50
Bristol -3.76 -2.43 -1.30
Bath -8.36 -9.15 0.80
Newcastle Falcons -9.12 -8.76 -0.40
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 33 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Oct 15 37 – 14 11.90 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Oct 16 31 – 28 13.70 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 16 32 – 31 17.90 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 16 37 – 31 12.30 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 17 19 – 27 2.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 London Irish vs. Gloucester Oct 22 Gloucester -1.90
2 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Oct 23 Northampton Saints -6.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Oct 23 Exeter Chiefs 11.10
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Oct 24 Leicester Tigers 10.90
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Oct 24 Sale Sharks 8.10

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.46 2.00 5.50
Wellington 7.15 3.58 3.60
North Harbour 6.08 2.31 3.80
Hawke’s Bay 5.09 5.87 -0.80
Bay of Plenty 4.05 0.10 4.00
Tasman 3.60 5.94 -2.30
Waikato 3.54 2.00 1.50
Auckland 3.05 4.50 -1.40
Otago -0.46 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -1.13 3.63 -4.80
Northland -5.08 -6.68 1.60
Counties Manukau -7.34 -6.32 -1.00
Southland -11.26 -7.01 -4.20
Manawatu -12.41 -5.97 -6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Auckland Oct 14 54 – 19 4.00 TRUE
2 Canterbury vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 24 – 10 4.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 22 Wellington 2.20

 

October 11, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.23 16.79 0.40
Ulster 10.46 9.27 1.20
Stormers 7.93 7.14 0.80
Bulls 6.87 7.84 -1.00
Munster 6.84 9.78 -2.90
Sharks 5.30 6.95 -1.70
Edinburgh 3.91 3.58 0.30
Glasgow 0.10 -0.00 0.10
Lions -0.67 -1.74 1.10
Ospreys -1.00 -0.83 -0.20
Connacht -1.86 -1.60 -0.30
Benetton -2.48 -3.68 1.20
Scarlets -3.16 -1.23 -1.90
Cardiff Rugby -7.25 -7.42 0.20
Dragons -11.49 -11.81 0.30
Zebre -14.70 -16.99 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Munster Oct 08 20 – 11 -6.00 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 08 19 – 22 10.30 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 09 20 – 37 -18.40 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 09 54 – 34 15.50 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 09 10 – 16 9.50 FALSE
6 Glasgow vs. Bulls Oct 09 35 – 21 -3.80 FALSE
7 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 09 47 – 17 14.60 TRUE
8 Benetton vs. Dragons Oct 09 34 – 14 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 15 Leinster -15.10
2 Ospreys vs. Stormers Oct 15 Stormers -4.40
3 Lions vs. Ulster Oct 15 Ulster -6.60
4 Sharks vs. Glasgow Oct 16 Sharks 9.70
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Oct 16 Cardiff Rugby 8.20
6 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Oct 16 Edinburgh 10.90
7 Munster vs. Bulls Oct 16 Munster 4.50
8 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 16 Scarlets 16.00

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.34 2.00
La Rochelle 6.30 6.88 -0.60
Toulon 4.68 4.09 0.60
Montpellier 4.44 4.18 0.30
Racing 92 4.18 4.86 -0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.08 5.27 -1.20
Clermont 3.90 4.05 -0.20
Castres Olympique 2.51 2.87 -0.40
Lyon 2.43 3.10 -0.70
Stade Francais 0.90 -1.05 2.00
Aviron Bayonnais -2.68 -4.26 1.60
Section Paloise -2.77 -2.12 -0.60
USA Perpignan -4.36 -2.75 -1.60
Brive -4.70 -4.20 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. La Rochelle Oct 08 29 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Oct 08 26 – 13 3.60 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 08 36 – 21 4.10 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Oct 08 26 – 13 13.50 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Oct 08 52 – 3 9.50 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Oct 08 46 – 10 9.30 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Brive Oct 08 47 – 0 13.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Oct 15 Bordeaux Begles 6.40
2 Brive vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 15 Stade Toulousain -6.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais Oct 15 Castres Olympique 11.70
4 La Rochelle vs. Toulon Oct 15 La Rochelle 8.10
5 Montpellier vs. Lyon Oct 15 Montpellier 8.50
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Oct 15 Section Paloise 2.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Oct 15 Clermont -1.80

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.87 4.14 1.70
Leicester Tigers 5.64 7.93 -2.30
Exeter Chiefs 5.27 3.67 1.60
Gloucester 4.84 5.92 -1.10
Harlequins 3.51 3.92 -0.40
Northampton Saints 3.38 3.99 -0.60
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Saracens -0.94 -5.00 4.10
London Irish -1.52 -1.65 0.10
Bristol -4.36 -2.43 -1.90
Bath -8.75 -9.15 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -10.01 -8.76 -1.30
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 08 14 – 50 -1.90 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Gloucester Oct 09 17 – 21 -9.80 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 09 16 – 26 6.00 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Oct 10 14 – 34 -2.80 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Oct 10 36 – 40 1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. London Irish Oct 15 Sale Sharks 11.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Oct 16 Exeter Chiefs 10.00
3 Gloucester vs. Bristol Oct 16 Gloucester 13.70
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 16 Northampton Saints 17.90
5 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 16 Saracens 12.30
6 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 17 Harlequins 2.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Finals

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Team Ratings for the Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 6.93 2.00 4.90
North Harbour 6.08 2.31 3.80
Wellington 5.83 3.58 2.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.09 5.87 -0.80
Bay of Plenty 4.58 0.10 4.50
Auckland 4.37 4.50 -0.10
Tasman 3.60 5.94 -2.30
Waikato 3.54 2.00 1.50
Otago -0.46 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -1.13 3.63 -4.80
Northland -5.08 -6.68 1.60
Counties Manukau -7.34 -6.32 -1.00
Southland -11.26 -7.01 -4.20
Manawatu -12.41 -5.97 -6.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Auckland Oct 07 18 – 21 5.20 FALSE
2 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 08 28 – 21 2.30 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Northland Oct 08 23 – 16 15.50 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 09 27 – 34 2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Finals

Here are the predictions for the Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Auckland Oct 14 Wellington 4.00
2 Canterbury vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 15 Canterbury 4.90

 

October 4, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.79 16.79 0.00
Ulster 9.78 9.27 0.50
Stormers 8.07 7.14 0.90
Bulls 7.62 7.84 -0.20
Munster 7.51 9.78 -2.30
Sharks 5.75 6.95 -1.20
Edinburgh 4.53 3.58 1.00
Ospreys -0.32 -0.83 0.50
Glasgow -0.65 -0.00 -0.60
Lions -1.29 -1.74 0.50
Scarlets -2.48 -1.23 -1.20
Connacht -2.53 -1.60 -0.90
Benetton -2.88 -3.68 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.93 -7.42 -0.50
Dragons -11.09 -11.81 0.70
Zebre -14.84 -16.99 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Connacht Oct 01 28 – 14 14.80 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Oct 01 18 – 31 -1.00 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Oct 01 13 – 20 -2.00 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Oct 01 34 – 18 7.10 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Oct 02 32 – 17 3.70 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Zebre Oct 02 21 – 5 28.00 TRUE
7 Benetton vs. Scarlets Oct 02 34 – 23 3.30 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 02 19 – 20 -13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Munster Oct 08 Munster -6.00
2 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 08 Edinburgh 10.30
3 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 09 Stormers -18.40
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 09 Leinster 15.50
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 09 Scarlets 9.50
6 Glasgow vs. Bulls Oct 09 Bulls -3.80
7 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 09 Ulster 14.60
8 Benetton vs. Dragons Oct 09 Benetton 12.70

 

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