June 14, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.91 -6.14 12.00
Gloucester 5.08 -1.02 6.10
Saracens 4.24 -5.00 9.20
Sale Sharks 2.83 4.96 -2.10
Northampton Saints 2.68 -2.48 5.20
Exeter Chiefs 2.40 7.35 -4.90
Harlequins 1.89 -1.08 3.00
Wasps 1.12 5.66 -4.50
London Irish -2.88 -8.05 5.20
Bristol -4.25 1.28 -5.50
Bath -9.04 2.14 -11.20
Newcastle Falcons -9.08 -3.52 -5.60
Worcester Warriors -12.51 -5.71 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 155 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Saracens vs. Harlequins Jun 12 34 – 17 5.60 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Jun 12 27 – 14 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jun 19 Leicester Tigers 1.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.69 -2.70 8.40
Bulls 4.93 7.25 -2.30
Griquas 0.89 -4.92 5.80
Pumas 0.83 -3.31 4.10
Sharks -1.30 4.13 -5.40
Western Province -3.24 1.42 -4.70
Lions -7.79 -1.88 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Jun 11 44 – 45 5.60 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 11 35 – 5 1.10 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jun 12 28 – 21 1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Jun 19 Bulls 8.50
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jun 19 Cheetahs 9.40

 

June 8, 2022

Briefly

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Remember Pheidippides

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From the Herald today (from the Daily Telegraph)

The story is somewhat better than the headline — for a start, it mentions in the second sentence that this is unpublished research being presented at a conference, so it’s really just a press release and there won’t be much further information available.  There’s a slightly more detailed story at Yahoo, from the Evening Standard.

You might think from the the headline that the research studied men who ran marathons after the age of 40, and that it came with recommendations not to do this.  Not quite. These were people aged over 40 who had taken part in more than 10 endurance events and had exercised regularly for at least 10 years, but quite a lot of their excessive exercise could have taken place when they were under 40.  More importantly, there wasn’t a “warning”:  the Yahoo piece quotes the researchers as saying

“In non-athletes, aortic stiffening is associated with heart and circulatory diseases.

“How this finding applies to potential risk in athletes is not yet fully understood, so more work will be needed to help identify who could be more at risk.”

As usual, this isn’t the first piece of research on the topic.

Earlier research of endurance athletes over 50, from 2020 (press release, paper) supports the current findings. It did find enlargement of the aorta in male but not female athletes, and like the current research it came with vague concerns rather than dire warnings

The first option is that aortic enlargement among masters athletes is a benign adaptation and another feature of the so-called athlete’s heart, where big is good. “The alternative is that being a lifelong exerciser may cause dilation of the aorta with the sort of attendant risk seen in nonathletes.”

A 2021 paper looked at the ‘aortic age’ in people doing their first marathon, at ages ranging from 21 to 69. It found

… a reduction in “aortic age” by 3.9 years (95% CI: 1.1 to 7.6 years) and 4.0 years (95% CI: 1.7 to 8.0 years) (Ao-P and Ao-D, respectively). Benefit was greater in older, male participants with slower running times (p < 0.05 for all).

That is, if these measurements have the same interpretation in athletes as in normal people, running a single marathon seems to be good for men over 40.

It might turn out that overindulgence in marathon running is bad for your cardiovascular system, but we’re not there yet.  If you’re running for fitness, you might be better off not going the full 42km. But if you enjoy it, go in (hopefully) good health.

June 7, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.47 19.20 -2.70
Panthers 15.62 14.26 1.40
Rabbitohs 7.38 15.81 -8.40
Sea Eagles 4.51 10.99 -6.50
Eels 3.96 2.54 1.40
Roosters 2.66 2.23 0.40
Cowboys 1.24 -12.27 13.50
Sharks -0.30 -1.10 0.80
Broncos -0.68 -8.90 8.20
Raiders -0.91 -1.10 0.20
Titans -5.90 1.05 -6.90
Dragons -6.83 -7.99 1.20
Warriors -9.11 -8.99 -0.10
Knights -9.67 -6.54 -3.10
Wests Tigers -9.67 -10.94 1.30
Bulldogs -10.77 -10.25 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 02 6 – 32 -1.30 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jun 03 30 – 18 31.70 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jun 04 44 – 12 17.30 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 22 – 16 -1.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Dragons Jun 10 Cowboys 11.10
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 11 Rabbitohs -10.30
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 11 Storm -10.80
4 Broncos vs. Raiders Jun 11 Broncos 3.20
5 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 12 Sea Eagles -11.20
6 Knights vs. Panthers Jun 12 Panthers -22.30
7 Warriors vs. Sharks Jun 12 Sharks -8.80
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 13 Eels -11.70

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.71 14.79 2.90
Munster 9.78 10.69 -0.90
Ulster 9.02 7.41 1.60
Stormers 7.32 0.00 7.30
Bulls 6.99 3.65 3.30
Sharks 6.95 -0.07 7.00
Edinburgh 3.58 2.90 0.70
Glasgow -0.00 3.69 -3.70
Ospreys -0.83 0.94 -1.80
Scarlets -1.23 -0.77 -0.50
Connacht -1.60 1.72 -3.30
Lions -1.74 -3.91 2.20
Benetton -3.68 -4.50 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -7.42 -0.11 -7.30
Dragons -11.81 -6.92 -4.90
Zebre -16.99 -13.47 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 04 30 – 27 5.50 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Munster Jun 04 36 – 17 2.50 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 05 76 – 14 20.70 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Jun 05 28 – 17 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Bulls Jun 11 Leinster 17.20
2 Stormers vs. Ulster Jun 12 Stormers 4.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.90 6.83 1.10
La Rochelle 7.70 6.78 0.90
Racing-Metro 92 6.21 6.13 0.10
Bordeaux-Begles 6.01 5.42 0.60
Clermont Auvergne 4.78 5.09 -0.30
RC Toulonnais 4.50 1.82 2.70
Lyon Rugby 3.61 4.15 -0.50
Montpellier 3.52 -0.01 3.50
Castres Olympique 3.23 0.94 2.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.71 1.20 -1.90
Section Paloise -1.81 -2.25 0.40
USA Perpignan -3.05 -2.78 -0.30
Brive -4.06 -3.19 -0.90
Biarritz -10.48 -2.78 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 181 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier Jun 06 20 – 15 8.10 TRUE
2 Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle Jun 06 26 – 29 3.00 FALSE
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. RC Toulonnais Jun 06 21 – 16 8.60 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Jun 06 16 – 26 2.30 FALSE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Brive Jun 06 17 – 33 11.50 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Biarritz Jun 06 80 – 7 22.10 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 06 22 – 15 -3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle Jun 12 Stade Toulousain 6.70
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 13 Bordeaux-Begles 6.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.51 13.43 2.10
Blues 12.72 9.26 3.50
Hurricanes 7.70 8.28 -0.60
Chiefs 7.57 5.56 2.00
Brumbies 4.82 3.61 1.20
Highlanders 3.31 6.54 -3.20
Reds 0.26 1.37 -1.10
Waratahs -2.59 -9.00 6.40
Western Force -6.94 -4.96 -2.00
Rebels -8.27 -5.79 -2.50
Moana Pasifika -11.64 -10.00 -1.60
Fijian Drua -14.14 -10.00 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jun 03 37 – 15 21.10 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 04 39 – 15 15.10 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 04 35 – 6 13.20 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 35 – 25 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jun 10 Crusaders 13.40
2 Blues vs. Brumbies Jun 11 Blues 13.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.55 -6.14 11.70
Gloucester 5.08 -1.02 6.10
Saracens 3.60 -5.00 8.60
Northampton Saints 3.04 -2.48 5.50
Sale Sharks 2.83 4.96 -2.10
Harlequins 2.52 -1.08 3.60
Exeter Chiefs 2.40 7.35 -4.90
Wasps 1.12 5.66 -4.50
London Irish -2.88 -8.05 5.20
Bristol -4.25 1.28 -5.50
Bath -9.04 2.14 -11.20
Newcastle Falcons -9.08 -3.52 -5.60
Worcester Warriors -12.51 -5.71 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Jun 05 47 – 38 3.70 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Saracens Jun 05 54 – 7 1.90 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Jun 05 20 – 10 8.70 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 05 65 – 26 14.20 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 05 42 – 19 10.20 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Jun 05 43 – 27 -0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Saracens vs. Harlequins Jun 12 Saracens 5.60
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Jun 12 Leicester Tigers 7.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.02 7.25 -0.20
Cheetahs 3.60 -2.70 6.30
Pumas 1.43 -3.31 4.70
Griquas 0.29 -4.92 5.20
Sharks -0.79 4.13 -4.90
Western Province -3.75 1.42 -5.20
Lions -7.79 -1.88 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jun 04 28 – 29 8.30 FALSE
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Jun 04 41 – 43 1.20 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Lions Jun 05 32 – 38 14.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Jun 11 Pumas 5.60
2 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jun 11 Cheetahs 1.10
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jun 12 Western Province 1.50

 

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