United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final
Team Ratings for the Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 16.79 | 14.79 | 2.00 |
Munster | 9.78 | 10.69 | -0.90 |
Ulster | 9.27 | 7.41 | 1.90 |
Bulls | 7.91 | 3.65 | 4.30 |
Stormers | 7.06 | 0.00 | 7.10 |
Sharks | 6.95 | -0.07 | 7.00 |
Edinburgh | 3.58 | 2.90 | 0.70 |
Glasgow | -0.00 | 3.69 | -3.70 |
Ospreys | -0.83 | 0.94 | -1.80 |
Scarlets | -1.23 | -0.77 | -0.50 |
Connacht | -1.60 | 1.72 | -3.30 |
Lions | -1.74 | -3.91 | 2.20 |
Benetton | -3.68 | -4.50 | 0.80 |
Cardiff Rugby | -7.42 | -0.11 | -7.30 |
Dragons | -11.81 | -6.92 | -4.90 |
Zebre | -16.99 | -13.47 | -3.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 150 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Leinster vs. Bulls | Jun 11 | 26 – 27 | 17.20 | FALSE |
2 | Stormers vs. Ulster | Jun 12 | 17 – 15 | 4.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Final
Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Jun 19 | Stormers | 4.20 |
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