United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15
Team Ratings for Week 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 16.51 | 16.79 | -0.30 |
Munster | 10.87 | 9.78 | 1.10 |
Ulster | 9.48 | 9.27 | 0.20 |
Stormers | 8.47 | 7.14 | 1.30 |
Bulls | 6.05 | 7.84 | -1.80 |
Sharks | 5.22 | 6.95 | -1.70 |
Glasgow | 3.48 | -0.00 | 3.50 |
Connacht | 2.32 | -1.60 | 3.90 |
Edinburgh | 0.61 | 3.58 | -3.00 |
Scarlets | -2.64 | -1.23 | -1.40 |
Ospreys | -2.82 | -0.83 | -2.00 |
Benetton | -4.20 | -3.68 | -0.50 |
Lions | -4.63 | -1.74 | -2.90 |
Cardiff Rugby | -4.78 | -7.42 | 2.60 |
Dragons | -10.48 | -11.81 | 1.30 |
Zebre | -17.41 | -16.99 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 112 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Lions vs. Glasgow | Feb 26 | 35 – 41 | -3.00 | TRUE |
2 | Sharks vs. Ulster | Feb 26 | 24 – 31 | 1.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Glasgow vs. Zebre | Mar 04 | Glasgow | 25.40 |
2 | Munster vs. Scarlets | Mar 04 | Munster | 18.00 |
3 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Mar 05 | Stormers | 7.20 |
4 | Bulls vs. Lions | Mar 05 | Bulls | 14.70 |
5 | Edinburgh vs. Leinster | Mar 05 | Leinster | -11.40 |
6 | Ospreys vs. Benetton | Mar 05 | Ospreys | 5.90 |
7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster | Mar 05 | Ulster | -9.80 |
8 | Dragons vs. Connacht | Mar 05 | Connacht | -8.30 |
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