NRL Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 12.80 | 14.26 | -1.50 |
Storm | 10.75 | 19.20 | -8.50 |
Rabbitohs | 7.23 | 15.81 | -8.60 |
Roosters | 4.04 | 2.23 | 1.80 |
Cowboys | 3.86 | -12.27 | 16.10 |
Sharks | 3.05 | -1.10 | 4.20 |
Eels | 2.60 | 2.54 | 0.10 |
Sea Eagles | 0.17 | 10.99 | -10.80 |
Raiders | -1.56 | -1.10 | -0.50 |
Broncos | -1.60 | -8.90 | 7.30 |
Dragons | -3.94 | -7.99 | 4.10 |
Bulldogs | -5.68 | -10.25 | 4.60 |
Titans | -7.46 | 1.05 | -8.50 |
Knights | -7.63 | -6.54 | -1.10 |
Wests Tigers | -8.32 | -10.94 | 2.60 |
Warriors | -10.30 | -8.99 | -1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Aug 04 | 34 – 16 | 7.30 | TRUE |
2 | Storm vs. Titans | Aug 05 | 32 – 14 | 21.80 | TRUE |
3 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Aug 05 | 20 – 36 | 2.80 | FALSE |
4 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Aug 06 | 48 – 10 | 21.00 | TRUE |
5 | Raiders vs. Panthers | Aug 06 | 6 – 26 | -10.10 | TRUE |
6 | Sharks vs. Dragons | Aug 06 | 24 – 18 | 10.70 | TRUE |
7 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | Aug 07 | 14 – 28 | -5.40 | TRUE |
8 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | Aug 07 | 10 – 14 | 3.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Panthers vs. Storm | Aug 11 | Panthers | 5.10 |
2 | Warriors vs. Bulldogs | Aug 12 | Warriors | 0.90 |
3 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 12 | Rabbitohs | -1.60 |
4 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | Aug 13 | Roosters | 3.20 |
5 | Wests Tigers vs. Sharks | Aug 13 | Sharks | -11.40 |
6 | Broncos vs. Knights | Aug 13 | Broncos | 9.00 |
7 | Raiders vs. Dragons | Aug 14 | Raiders | 5.40 |
8 | Titans vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 14 | Sea Eagles | -4.60 |
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