Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leicester Tigers | 6.71 | 7.93 | -1.20 |
Sale Sharks | 5.08 | 4.14 | 0.90 |
London Irish | 3.88 | -1.65 | 5.50 |
Harlequins | 1.61 | 3.92 | -2.30 |
Saracens | 1.31 | -5.00 | 6.30 |
Northampton Saints | 0.36 | 3.99 | -3.60 |
Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
Bristol | -0.39 | -2.43 | 2.00 |
Gloucester | -1.16 | 5.92 | -7.10 |
Exeter Chiefs | -1.61 | 3.67 | -5.30 |
Bath | -4.85 | -9.15 | 4.30 |
Newcastle Falcons | -8.00 | -8.76 | 0.80 |
Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 107 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 16 | 20 – 36 | 0.80 | FALSE |
2 | Gloucester vs. Bath | Apr 16 | 24 – 33 | 10.20 | FALSE |
3 | Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 16 | 48 – 20 | 12.50 | TRUE |
4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 16 | 62 – 19 | 9.70 | TRUE |
5 | Northampton Saints vs. Saracens | Apr 16 | 38 – 29 | 2.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol | Apr 23 | Exeter Chiefs | 3.30 |
2 | Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 23 | Sale Sharks | -1.70 |
3 | Harlequins vs. Bath | Apr 23 | Harlequins | 11.00 |
4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 23 | Northampton Saints | -3.90 |
5 | Saracens vs. London Irish | Apr 23 | Saracens | 1.90 |
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