Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leicester Tigers | 5.14 | 7.93 | -2.80 |
Sale Sharks | 4.20 | 4.14 | 0.10 |
London Irish | 3.88 | -1.65 | 5.50 |
Saracens | 1.69 | -5.00 | 6.70 |
Harlequins | 0.78 | 3.92 | -3.10 |
Bristol | 0.49 | -2.43 | 2.90 |
Northampton Saints | -0.02 | 3.99 | -4.00 |
Exeter Chiefs | -0.03 | 3.67 | -3.70 |
Gloucester | -0.18 | 5.92 | -6.10 |
Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
Bath | -5.84 | -9.15 | 3.30 |
Newcastle Falcons | -7.17 | -8.76 | 1.60 |
Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 102 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester | Mar 25 | 17 – 12 | -3.50 | FALSE |
2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol | Mar 26 | 46 – 24 | 7.60 | TRUE |
3 | London Irish vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 26 | 37 – 22 | 7.50 | TRUE |
4 | Saracens vs. Harlequins | Mar 26 | 36 – 24 | 4.50 | TRUE |
5 | Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 27 | 36 – 19 | -3.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 16 | Bristol | 0.80 |
2 | Gloucester vs. Bath | Apr 16 | Gloucester | 10.20 |
3 | Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 16 | Harlequins | 12.50 |
4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 16 | Leicester Tigers | 9.70 |
5 | Northampton Saints vs. Saracens | Apr 16 | Northampton Saints | 2.80 |
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