Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8
Team Ratings for Week 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Crusaders | 16.83 | 17.95 | -1.10 |
Blues | 13.21 | 12.34 | 0.90 |
Hurricanes | 11.18 | 9.59 | 1.60 |
Chiefs | 10.87 | 8.81 | 2.10 |
Brumbies | 7.60 | 6.64 | 1.00 |
Highlanders | 2.99 | 5.04 | -2.10 |
Reds | 0.29 | 1.89 | -1.60 |
Waratahs | -1.81 | -2.50 | 0.70 |
Western Force | -5.44 | -5.54 | 0.10 |
Rebels | -6.51 | -6.19 | -0.30 |
Fijian Drua | -9.62 | -10.50 | 0.90 |
Moana Pasifika | -10.97 | -8.91 | -2.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika | Apr 07 | 38 – 21 | 32.60 | TRUE |
2 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Apr 07 | 24 – 52 | -1.90 | TRUE |
3 | Highlanders vs. Hurricanes | Apr 08 | 14 – 29 | -3.70 | TRUE |
4 | Rebels vs. Blues | Apr 08 | 17 – 54 | -12.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 8
Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Reds | Apr 14 | Reds | -5.80 |
2 | Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua | Apr 14 | Brumbies | 20.70 |
3 | Hurricanes vs. Chiefs | Apr 15 | Hurricanes | 3.80 |
4 | Waratahs vs. Western Force | Apr 15 | Waratahs | 7.10 |
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