Top 14 Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
La Rochelle | 7.47 | 6.88 | 0.60 |
Stade Toulousain | 6.61 | 6.34 | 0.30 |
Bordeaux Begles | 5.18 | 5.27 | -0.10 |
Montpellier | 4.80 | 4.18 | 0.60 |
Racing 92 | 4.57 | 4.86 | -0.30 |
Clermont | 3.92 | 4.05 | -0.10 |
Toulon | 3.44 | 4.09 | -0.70 |
Lyon | 2.74 | 3.10 | -0.40 |
Castres Olympique | 2.54 | 2.87 | -0.30 |
Stade Francais | -0.78 | -1.05 | 0.30 |
Section Paloise | -1.76 | -2.12 | 0.40 |
USA Perpignan | -3.71 | -2.75 | -1.00 |
Aviron Bayonnais | -3.87 | -4.26 | 0.40 |
Brive | -3.89 | -4.20 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique | Sep 17 | 33 – 12 | 8.30 | TRUE |
2 | Brive vs. Montpellier | Sep 18 | 26 – 31 | -1.90 | TRUE |
3 | La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan | Sep 18 | 43 – 8 | 16.50 | TRUE |
4 | Racing 92 vs. Lyon | Sep 18 | 32 – 19 | 7.80 | TRUE |
5 | Stade Francais vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Sep 18 | 26 – 16 | 9.50 | TRUE |
6 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Sep 18 | 26 – 16 | -2.70 | FALSE |
7 | Toulon vs. Clermont | Sep 19 | 30 – 29 | 6.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | USA Perpignan vs. Toulon | Sep 24 | Toulon | -0.70 |
2 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Sep 25 | Bordeaux Begles | -2.50 |
3 | Castres Olympique vs. Brive | Sep 25 | Castres Olympique | 12.90 |
4 | Lyon vs. Stade Francais | Sep 25 | Lyon | 10.00 |
5 | Montpellier vs. Section Paloise | Sep 25 | Montpellier | 13.10 |
6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 | Sep 25 | Stade Toulousain | 8.50 |
7 | Clermont vs. La Rochelle | Sep 26 | Clermont | 2.90 |
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