May 23, 2023

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 5.28 2.84 2.40
Cheetahs 3.80 4.67 -0.90
Sharks 3.50 -1.30 4.80
Western Province 0.31 -3.24 3.60
Bulls -0.61 3.43 -4.00
Griquas -2.60 1.39 -4.00
Lions -4.77 -7.79 3.00
Griffons -14.92 -10.00 -4.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas May 20 22 – 14 -2.50 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs May 20 35 – 23 2.30 TRUE
3 Griffons vs. Griquas May 21 21 – 47 -5.60 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Bulls May 21 32 – 33 0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griffons vs. Sharks May 27 Sharks -14.40
2 Western Province vs. Lions May 27 Western Province 9.10
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas May 28 Cheetahs 10.40
4 Pumas vs. Bulls May 28 Pumas 9.90

 

May 22, 2023

Sniffing out Covid accuracy?

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This research, reported at Newshub, is pretty good: dogs are being evaluated for detecting Covid in reasonably large numbers of people at schools, and the results are actually published in a respectable peer-reviewed journal.  The numbers are still getting oversold a bit:

The study said [the dogs] were 83 percent accurate at identifying COVID-19-positive students, and 90 percent on the mark at picking out virus-negative students.

There are two issues here. First, 90% accuracy on virus-negative students is not at all good.  The current prevalence of Covid in NZ is maybe 1%, and the idea of dog-based-testing is for the subset of people who are possibly infected but apparently healthy, which will cut the numbers further.  Most of the people who test positive will be false positives, who will then need to be isolated for further testing.   Antigen tests have an accuracy in uninfected people (specificity) more like 99%.

Achieving 83% accuracy for identifying actual infections sounds good, and I’ve seen social media comments that it’s better than the antigen tests. It isn’t really: as the story says, the accuracy figure measures how well the dogs agree with the antigen tests.  83% accuracy means that the dogs are missing 17% of the infections that the antigen tests pick up.

If your school was doing regular testing of all students, this study suggests that you could reduce the amount of testing by using dogs to screen people first and only testing the kids who the dogs select. The accuracy would be lower than testing everyone, but it might be cheaper.   The study doesn’t really argue that dogs would be good on their own.

The story goes on to say

Dogs have also been using their powerful noses to detect other diseases such as cancer with shockingly high accuracy. 

Again, this is true (at least in a sense). Research studies, mostly small, have reported results of this sort for years. The fact that we aren’t currently using dogs to screen for any of these diseases suggests either that there are practical barriers to implementation, or that it doesn’t actually work all that well in practice.

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May 16, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.84 12.99 -0.20
Rabbitohs 11.59 9.35 2.20
Storm 5.92 11.21 -5.30
Sharks 2.90 4.50 -1.60
Eels 2.88 6.78 -3.90
Raiders 1.56 1.98 -0.40
Roosters 1.49 7.64 -6.20
Cowboys 0.77 6.23 -5.50
Broncos 0.51 -5.92 6.40
Dragons -3.16 -2.73 -0.40
Dolphins -4.58 -10.00 5.40
Warriors -5.46 -11.12 5.70
Sea Eagles -5.79 -5.26 -0.50
Titans -6.10 -6.32 0.20
Knights -8.72 -9.53 0.80
Bulldogs -9.11 -8.29 -0.80
Wests Tigers -9.54 -13.52 4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos May 11 24 – 16 8.50 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Warriors May 12 12 – 24 4.40 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters May 12 48 – 4 10.70 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 13 20 – 0 25.30 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons May 13 42 – 22 5.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Eels May 13 26 – 18 0.60 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Titans May 14 46 – 26 -2.20 FALSE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks May 14 14 – 20 -5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers May 18 Panthers -9.30
2 Dragons vs. Roosters May 19 Roosters -1.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 19 Rabbitohs 11.70
4 Sharks vs. Knights May 20 Sharks 14.60
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 20 Cowboys -7.30
6 Dolphins vs. Storm May 20 Storm -7.50
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans May 21 Titans -0.00
8 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles May 21 Raiders 10.30

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.25 16.79 -2.50
Munster 10.83 9.78 1.00
Stormers 9.18 7.14 2.00
Ulster 8.99 9.27 -0.30
Bulls 7.91 7.84 0.10
Glasgow 3.79 -0.00 3.80
Sharks 3.79 6.95 -3.20
Connacht 3.47 -1.60 5.10
Edinburgh 0.38 3.58 -3.20
Scarlets -1.88 -1.23 -0.60
Lions -3.38 -1.74 -1.60
Benetton -3.61 -3.68 0.10
Ospreys -4.69 -0.83 -3.90
Cardiff Rugby -5.53 -7.42 1.90
Dragons -9.05 -11.81 2.80
Zebre -18.42 -16.99 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Connacht May 14 43 – 25 9.30 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Munster May 14 15 – 16 8.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Munster May 28 Stormers 2.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.27 6.88 0.40
Stade Toulousain 6.59 6.34 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 5.19 5.27 -0.10
Racing 92 4.59 4.86 -0.30
Toulon 3.45 4.09 -0.60
Montpellier 3.38 4.18 -0.80
Lyon 3.13 3.10 0.00
Stade Francais 3.02 -1.05 4.10
Clermont 1.87 4.05 -2.20
Castres Olympique 0.05 2.87 -2.80
Aviron Bayonnais -0.67 -4.26 3.60
Section Paloise -0.93 -2.12 1.20
USA Perpignan -3.61 -2.75 -0.90
Brive -6.08 -4.20 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Clermont May 13 21 – 18 4.10 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise May 13 28 – 0 11.50 TRUE
3 Brive vs. Castres Olympique May 13 13 – 16 0.70 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 13 42 – 31 1.70 TRUE
5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon May 13 43 – 7 5.80 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 13 31 – 31 7.10 FALSE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain May 13 26 – 21 -4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan May 27 Castres Olympique 10.20
2 Clermont vs. Racing 92 May 27 Clermont 3.80
3 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais May 27 La Rochelle 10.70
4 Lyon vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 27 Lyon 10.30
5 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier May 27 Section Paloise 2.20
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive May 27 Stade Toulousain 19.20
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles May 27 Toulon 4.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.81 17.95 -1.10
Blues 12.42 12.34 0.10
Chiefs 12.31 8.81 3.50
Hurricanes 10.47 9.59 0.90
Brumbies 7.55 6.64 0.90
Highlanders 1.42 5.04 -3.60
Reds 1.06 1.89 -0.80
Waratahs -0.84 -2.50 1.70
Western Force -5.35 -5.54 0.20
Rebels -6.16 -6.19 0.00
Fijian Drua -9.39 -10.50 1.10
Moana Pasifika -11.66 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 12 22 – 25 18.40 FALSE
2 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 12 34 – 14 6.40 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 13 71 – 22 23.80 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 13 15 – 3 7.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 13 38 – 20 7.90 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Highlanders May 14 48 – 32 11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders May 19 Crusaders -25.00
2 Reds vs. Blues May 19 Blues -5.90
3 Highlanders vs. Rebels May 20 Highlanders 13.10
4 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 20 Chiefs 5.30
5 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua May 20 Waratahs 12.10
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies May 20 Brumbies -9.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 6.54 4.14 2.40
Leicester Tigers 5.72 7.93 -2.20
London Irish 2.40 -1.65 4.00
Saracens 1.87 -5.00 6.90
Northampton Saints 1.81 3.99 -2.20
Harlequins 1.28 3.92 -2.60
Bristol 0.33 -2.43 2.80
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Exeter Chiefs -1.42 3.67 -5.10
Gloucester -1.80 5.92 -7.70
Bath -2.20 -9.15 6.90
Newcastle Falcons -11.59 -8.76 -2.80
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints May 14 38 – 15 2.50 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 15 21 – 13 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens May 28 Sale Sharks 4.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 6.03 2.84 3.20
Cheetahs 4.50 4.67 -0.20
Sharks 2.81 -1.30 4.10
Western Province -0.43 -3.24 2.80
Bulls -0.71 3.43 -4.10
Griquas -3.96 1.39 -5.40
Lions -4.68 -7.79 3.10
Griffons -13.56 -10.00 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griffons vs. Western Province May 13 21 – 25 -10.00 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks May 13 22 – 24 8.70 FALSE
3 Griquas vs. Bulls May 14 20 – 40 3.90 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Lions May 14 26 – 33 16.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Pumas May 20 Pumas -2.50
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs May 20 Sharks 2.30
3 Griffons vs. Griquas May 21 Griquas -5.60
4 Lions vs. Bulls May 21 Lions 0.00

 

May 9, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 12.18 9.35 2.80
Panthers 11.03 12.99 -2.00
Storm 5.97 11.21 -5.20
Eels 3.42 6.78 -3.40
Roosters 3.31 7.64 -4.30
Sharks 2.86 4.50 -1.60
Raiders 1.01 1.98 -1.00
Broncos 0.46 -5.92 6.40
Cowboys -0.19 6.23 -6.40
Dragons -2.20 -2.73 0.50
Dolphins -4.58 -10.00 5.40
Titans -4.79 -6.32 1.50
Sea Eagles -5.74 -5.26 -0.50
Warriors -6.50 -11.12 4.60
Bulldogs -8.07 -8.29 0.20
Knights -10.04 -9.53 -0.50
Wests Tigers -10.12 -13.52 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Raiders May 05 30 – 34 -10.00 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 05 6 – 32 -6.90 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Panthers May 06 6 – 18 -18.50 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Dolphins May 06 16 – 36 7.60 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs May 06 12 – 28 -4.70 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 07 18 – 16 -9.50 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 07 6 – 20 5.90 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Eels May 07 26 – 24 -9.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos May 11 Storm 8.50
2 Bulldogs vs. Warriors May 12 Bulldogs 4.40
3 Panthers vs. Roosters May 12 Panthers 10.70
4 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 13 Rabbitohs 25.30
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons May 13 Cowboys 5.00
6 Raiders vs. Eels May 13 Raiders 0.60
7 Knights vs. Titans May 14 Titans -2.20
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks May 14 Sharks -5.60

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.73 16.79 -2.10
Munster 10.35 9.78 0.60
Ulster 8.99 9.27 -0.30
Stormers 8.73 7.14 1.60
Bulls 7.91 7.84 0.10
Connacht 3.92 -1.60 5.50
Glasgow 3.79 -0.00 3.80
Sharks 3.79 6.95 -3.20
Edinburgh 0.38 3.58 -3.20
Scarlets -1.88 -1.23 -0.60
Lions -3.38 -1.74 -1.60
Benetton -3.61 -3.68 0.10
Ospreys -4.69 -0.83 -3.90
Cardiff Rugby -5.53 -7.42 1.90
Dragons -9.05 -11.81 2.80
Zebre -18.42 -16.99 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Munster May 07 5 – 14 -1.20 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Sharks May 07 35 – 5 14.00 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Bulls May 07 33 – 21 4.00 TRUE
4 Ulster vs. Connacht May 07 10 – 15 10.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Connacht May 14 Stormers 9.30
2 Leinster vs. Munster May 14 Leinster 8.40

 

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