Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Crusaders | 16.21 | 17.95 | -1.70 |
Blues | 13.66 | 12.34 | 1.30 |
Chiefs | 12.43 | 8.81 | 3.60 |
Hurricanes | 10.23 | 9.59 | 0.60 |
Brumbies | 7.51 | 6.64 | 0.90 |
Highlanders | 2.35 | 5.04 | -2.70 |
Reds | 0.83 | 1.89 | -1.10 |
Waratahs | -1.87 | -2.50 | 0.60 |
Western Force | -5.56 | -5.54 | -0.00 |
Rebels | -5.92 | -6.19 | 0.30 |
Fijian Drua | -9.51 | -10.50 | 1.00 |
Moana Pasifika | -11.73 | -8.91 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hurricanes vs. Brumbies | Apr 28 | 32 – 27 | 8.60 | TRUE |
2 | Waratahs vs. Highlanders | Apr 28 | 21 – 20 | 1.30 | TRUE |
3 | Fijian Drua vs. Blues | Apr 29 | 14 – 30 | -17.90 | TRUE |
4 | Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels | Apr 29 | 33 – 43 | 0.60 | FALSE |
5 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Apr 29 | 34 – 24 | -1.30 | FALSE |
6 | Reds vs. Western Force | Apr 29 | 31 – 17 | 9.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | May 05 | Chiefs | -6.60 |
2 | Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes | May 06 | Hurricanes | -14.20 |
3 | Crusaders vs. Western Force | May 06 | Crusaders | 27.30 |
4 | Blues vs. Moana Pasifika | May 06 | Blues | 28.90 |
5 | Reds vs. Waratahs | May 06 | Reds | 6.20 |
6 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | May 07 | Brumbies | -9.90 |
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