May 16, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 6.54 4.14 2.40
Leicester Tigers 5.72 7.93 -2.20
London Irish 2.40 -1.65 4.00
Saracens 1.87 -5.00 6.90
Northampton Saints 1.81 3.99 -2.20
Harlequins 1.28 3.92 -2.60
Bristol 0.33 -2.43 2.80
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Exeter Chiefs -1.42 3.67 -5.10
Gloucester -1.80 5.92 -7.70
Bath -2.20 -9.15 6.90
Newcastle Falcons -11.59 -8.76 -2.80
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints May 14 38 – 15 2.50 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 15 21 – 13 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens May 28 Sale Sharks 4.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 6.03 2.84 3.20
Cheetahs 4.50 4.67 -0.20
Sharks 2.81 -1.30 4.10
Western Province -0.43 -3.24 2.80
Bulls -0.71 3.43 -4.10
Griquas -3.96 1.39 -5.40
Lions -4.68 -7.79 3.10
Griffons -13.56 -10.00 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griffons vs. Western Province May 13 21 – 25 -10.00 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks May 13 22 – 24 8.70 FALSE
3 Griquas vs. Bulls May 14 20 – 40 3.90 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Lions May 14 26 – 33 16.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Pumas May 20 Pumas -2.50
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs May 20 Sharks 2.30
3 Griffons vs. Griquas May 21 Griquas -5.60
4 Lions vs. Bulls May 21 Lions 0.00

 

May 9, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 12.18 9.35 2.80
Panthers 11.03 12.99 -2.00
Storm 5.97 11.21 -5.20
Eels 3.42 6.78 -3.40
Roosters 3.31 7.64 -4.30
Sharks 2.86 4.50 -1.60
Raiders 1.01 1.98 -1.00
Broncos 0.46 -5.92 6.40
Cowboys -0.19 6.23 -6.40
Dragons -2.20 -2.73 0.50
Dolphins -4.58 -10.00 5.40
Titans -4.79 -6.32 1.50
Sea Eagles -5.74 -5.26 -0.50
Warriors -6.50 -11.12 4.60
Bulldogs -8.07 -8.29 0.20
Knights -10.04 -9.53 -0.50
Wests Tigers -10.12 -13.52 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Raiders May 05 30 – 34 -10.00 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 05 6 – 32 -6.90 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Panthers May 06 6 – 18 -18.50 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Dolphins May 06 16 – 36 7.60 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs May 06 12 – 28 -4.70 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 07 18 – 16 -9.50 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 07 6 – 20 5.90 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Eels May 07 26 – 24 -9.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos May 11 Storm 8.50
2 Bulldogs vs. Warriors May 12 Bulldogs 4.40
3 Panthers vs. Roosters May 12 Panthers 10.70
4 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 13 Rabbitohs 25.30
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons May 13 Cowboys 5.00
6 Raiders vs. Eels May 13 Raiders 0.60
7 Knights vs. Titans May 14 Titans -2.20
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks May 14 Sharks -5.60

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.73 16.79 -2.10
Munster 10.35 9.78 0.60
Ulster 8.99 9.27 -0.30
Stormers 8.73 7.14 1.60
Bulls 7.91 7.84 0.10
Connacht 3.92 -1.60 5.50
Glasgow 3.79 -0.00 3.80
Sharks 3.79 6.95 -3.20
Edinburgh 0.38 3.58 -3.20
Scarlets -1.88 -1.23 -0.60
Lions -3.38 -1.74 -1.60
Benetton -3.61 -3.68 0.10
Ospreys -4.69 -0.83 -3.90
Cardiff Rugby -5.53 -7.42 1.90
Dragons -9.05 -11.81 2.80
Zebre -18.42 -16.99 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Munster May 07 5 – 14 -1.20 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Sharks May 07 35 – 5 14.00 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Bulls May 07 33 – 21 4.00 TRUE
4 Ulster vs. Connacht May 07 10 – 15 10.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Connacht May 14 Stormers 9.30
2 Leinster vs. Munster May 14 Leinster 8.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.74 6.88 0.90
Stade Toulousain 7.08 6.34 0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.65 5.27 -0.60
Toulon 4.36 4.09 0.30
Racing 92 3.68 4.86 -1.20
Stade Francais 3.38 -1.05 4.40
Montpellier 2.91 4.18 -1.30
Lyon 2.78 3.10 -0.30
Clermont 1.82 4.05 -2.20
Castres Olympique -0.14 2.87 -3.00
Section Paloise -0.39 -2.12 1.70
Aviron Bayonnais -0.62 -4.26 3.60
USA Perpignan -4.09 -2.75 -1.30
Brive -5.90 -4.20 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Stade Francais May 07 32 – 16 4.10 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan May 07 41 – 31 13.70 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Brive May 07 26 – 27 16.40 FALSE
4 Racing 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 07 55 – 14 8.90 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique May 07 40 – 3 4.30 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. La Rochelle May 07 8 – 23 4.40 FALSE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles May 08 31 – 17 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Clermont May 13 Aviron Bayonnais 4.10
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise May 13 Bordeaux Begles 11.50
3 Brive vs. Castres Olympique May 13 Brive 0.70
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 13 Montpellier 1.70
5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon May 13 Racing 92 5.80
6 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 13 Stade Francais 7.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain May 13 Stade Toulousain -4.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.57 17.95 -1.40
Chiefs 13.12 8.81 4.30
Blues 12.65 12.34 0.30
Hurricanes 9.54 9.59 -0.10
Brumbies 7.31 6.64 0.70
Highlanders 1.66 5.04 -3.40
Reds 0.25 1.89 -1.60
Waratahs -1.28 -2.50 1.20
Rebels -5.71 -6.19 0.50
Western Force -5.92 -5.54 -0.40
Fijian Drua -8.83 -10.50 1.70
Moana Pasifika -10.73 -8.91 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 05 28 – 52 -6.60 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes May 06 27 – 24 -14.20 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force May 06 48 – 13 27.30 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika May 06 31 – 30 28.90 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs May 06 24 – 32 6.20 FALSE
6 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 07 26 – 33 -9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 12 Chiefs 18.40
2 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 12 Western Force 6.40
3 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 13 Hurricanes 23.80
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 13 Crusaders 7.40
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 13 Waratahs 7.90
6 Brumbies vs. Highlanders May 14 Brumbies 11.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 6.28 4.14 2.10
Leicester Tigers 5.97 7.93 -2.00
Northampton Saints 2.85 3.99 -1.10
London Irish 2.40 -1.65 4.00
Harlequins 1.28 3.92 -2.60
Saracens 0.83 -5.00 5.80
Bristol 0.33 -2.43 2.80
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Exeter Chiefs -1.42 3.67 -5.10
Gloucester -1.80 5.92 -7.70
Bath -2.20 -9.15 6.90
Newcastle Falcons -11.59 -8.76 -2.80
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 117 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Saracens May 07 61 – 29 -1.70 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester May 07 36 – 21 5.60 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins May 07 17 – 20 10.70 FALSE
4 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs May 07 17 – 14 9.10 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons May 07 54 – 12 20.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints May 14 Saracens 2.50
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 15 Sale Sharks 4.80

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 6.79 2.84 3.90
Cheetahs 6.02 4.67 1.30
Sharks 2.05 -1.30 3.40
Western Province 0.02 -3.24 3.30
Bulls -2.27 3.43 -5.70
Griquas -2.39 1.39 -3.80
Lions -6.20 -7.79 1.60
Griffons -14.02 -10.00 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions May 06 25 – 21 8.50 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Griffons May 06 45 – 25 25.70 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province May 07 26 – 21 10.90 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Sharks May 07 27 – 41 1.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griffons vs. Western Province May 13 Western Province -10.00
2 Pumas vs. Sharks May 13 Pumas 8.70
3 Griquas vs. Bulls May 14 Griquas 3.90
4 Cheetahs vs. Lions May 14 Cheetahs 16.20

 

May 5, 2023

Old people live longer?

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From Ars Technica

An analysis of 2,007 damaged or defective hard disk drives (HDDs) has led a data recovery firm to conclude that “in general, old drives seem more durable and resilient than new drives.”

If you go out and lo0k at human deaths over a period of years, you will also find that Baby Boomers are much more likely die over age 70 than Gen X, and Gen X are more likely to die after 50 than millennials.  It’s too late for Boomers to die young.

Going on, we see that

backup and cloud storage company Backblaze uses hard drives that surpass the average life span Secure Data Recovery saw among the HDDs clients sent it last year. At the end of 2022, Backblaze’s 230,921 hard drives had an average age of 3.6 years versus the 2-year, 10-month average time before failure among the drives Secure Data Recovery worked on last year.

Again, if you look at an older group of people, the average age at death will be older than if you use a younger group.

This all wouldn’t matter so much, except that they are also trying to draw conclusions about novel disk drive technologies being less reliable.  There are statistical techniques to account for the different follow-up time of different groups of drives, but it’s quite possible those techniques would just tell you “nope, too soon to tell”.

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May 2, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

I have had to update the predictions for this round since I just became aware the games are all being played at Suncorp.

I have to say that this arrangement is blatantly unfair to the non-Brisbane teams which lose a home game advantage but particularly the Sea Eagles, the Sharks and the Warriors on this occasion. The first two teams get to play their home game at the home stadium of their opponents so are doubly disadvantaged regarding home ground advantage. The Warriors have to play their home game across the Tasman and the home ground advantage they lose is greater for them according to my statistical analysis.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.52 12.99 -1.50
Rabbitohs 11.41 9.35 2.10
Storm 6.74 11.21 -4.50
Roosters 4.51 7.64 -3.10
Sharks 4.42 4.50 -0.10
Eels 4.22 6.78 -2.60
Raiders 1.47 1.98 -0.50
Broncos -0.71 -5.92 5.20
Cowboys -1.39 6.23 -7.60
Dragons -1.42 -2.73 1.30
Sea Eagles -4.58 -5.26 0.70
Titans -5.58 -6.32 0.70
Dolphins -6.14 -10.00 3.90
Warriors -6.99 -11.12 4.10
Bulldogs -8.54 -8.29 -0.30
Knights -10.04 -9.53 -0.50
Wests Tigers -10.89 -13.52 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 27 44 – 6 5.20 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Knights Apr 28 43 – 12 15.30 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Apr 28 6 – 32 -6.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Dolphins Apr 29 31 – 30 12.10 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 29 10 – 26 6.70 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 8 – 12 29.00 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Roosters Apr 30 0 – 14 -4.10 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 30 16 – 18 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Raiders May 05 Raiders -10.00
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 05 Broncos -6.90
3 Warriors vs. Panthers May 06 Panthers -18.50
4 Sharks vs. Dolphins May 06 Sharks 7.60
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs May 06 Rabbitohs -4.70
6 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 07 Dragons -9.50
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 07 Roosters 5.90
8 Titans vs. Eels May 07 Eels -9.80

 

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