February 5, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

Sorry I missed round 14 predictions. I have been overseas and a bit out of contact.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.04 7.24 -0.20
Stade Rochelais 5.66 6.40 -0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.97 4.07 0.90
Racing 92 4.51 3.42 1.10
Toulon 3.64 3.11 0.50
Stade Francais 2.82 2.62 0.20
Clermont 2.00 1.47 0.50
Castres Olympique 1.15 -0.39 1.50
Montpellier 0.30 2.09 -1.80
Section Paloise -0.24 -0.44 0.20
Lyon -1.09 2.97 -4.10
Bayonne -1.28 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -3.83 -3.64 -0.20
US Oyonnax -8.03 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Lyon Feb 04 38 – 21 8.80 TRUE
2 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Feb 04 33 – 44 6.20 FALSE
3 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier Feb 04 18 – 10 12.30 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 04 46 – 26 14.20 TRUE
5 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Francais Feb 04 19 – 23 -4.40 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Feb 04 26 – 5 -3.40 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 05 32 – 37 5.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Clermont Feb 18 Bayonne 3.20
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Feb 18 Bordeaux Begles 11.70
3 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 18 Stade Rochelais -0.30
4 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Feb 18 Racing 92 10.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Feb 18 Stade Francais 13.20
6 Stade Toulousain vs. US Oyonnax Feb 18 Stade Toulousain 21.60
7 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Feb 19 Castres Olympique 4.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.48 6.82 -0.30
Leicester Tigers 6.17 6.13 0.00
Northampton Saints 4.34 2.66 1.70
Harlequins 3.93 1.93 2.00
Bristol 3.19 1.00 2.20
Exeter Chiefs 3.02 -0.89 3.90
Bath 1.44 -1.26 2.70
Sale Sharks -0.18 6.46 -6.60
Gloucester -3.72 -1.45 -2.30
Newcastle Falcons -13.92 -10.63 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 27 19 – 20 4.80 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 28 57 – 44 6.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 28 38 – 13 24.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 28 40 – 22 7.60 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 29 32 – 20 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 Bristol 4.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Mar 23 Leicester Tigers 15.90
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 24 Exeter Chiefs 22.90
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 24 Saracens 8.60
5 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 25 Bath 7.60

 

January 8, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.31 7.24 -0.90
Stade Rochelais 5.73 6.40 -0.70
Racing 92 5.71 3.42 2.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.03 4.07 1.00
Toulon 4.17 3.11 1.10
Stade Francais 2.40 2.62 -0.20
Clermont 1.12 1.47 -0.40
Castres Olympique 1.06 -0.39 1.50
Section Paloise 0.25 -0.44 0.70
Montpellier 0.15 2.09 -1.90
Bayonne -0.63 -1.32 0.70
Lyon -0.77 2.97 -3.70
USA Perpignan -4.50 -3.64 -0.90
US Oyonnax -8.41 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Jan 06 24 – 23 13.00 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Toulon Jan 06 27 – 17 1.60 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 06 34 – 30 11.90 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 06 20 – 29 1.80 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Jan 06 14 – 14 8.60 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jan 06 45 – 0 11.60 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. US Oyonnax Jan 06 27 – 12 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. US Oyonnax Jan 28 Bayonne 14.30
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Jan 28 Bordeaux Begles 9.10
3 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Jan 28 Castres Olympique 6.40
4 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Jan 28 Lyon 10.20
5 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Jan 28 Montpellier 6.40
6 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 28 Toulon 4.90
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 29 Racing 92 5.90

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.64 6.13 -0.50
Saracens 5.56 6.82 -1.30
Harlequins 4.47 1.93 2.50
Northampton Saints 4.24 2.66 1.60
Exeter Chiefs 3.94 -0.89 4.80
Bristol 2.61 1.00 1.60
Bath 2.03 -1.26 3.30
Sale Sharks 0.85 6.46 -5.60
Gloucester -4.74 -1.45 -3.30
Newcastle Falcons -13.83 -10.63 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 06 3 – 24 -10.40 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jan 06 14 – 22 6.80 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 07 36 – 42 8.20 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 07 19 – 10 5.30 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Jan 08 17 – 10 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 27 Harlequins 4.80
2 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 28 Bristol 6.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 28 Northampton Saints 24.10
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 28 Saracens 7.60
5 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 29 Gloucester 0.40

 

January 3, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.23 10.73 0.50
Bulls 10.75 9.00 1.80
Munster 8.10 10.54 -2.40
Stormers 6.44 8.93 -2.50
Glasgow 5.98 4.19 1.80
Ulster 5.32 7.80 -2.50
Connacht 4.13 3.17 1.00
Edinburgh 0.65 -2.26 2.90
Lions 0.26 -4.26 4.50
Sharks -0.17 0.85 -1.00
Benetton -2.39 -5.12 2.70
Cardiff Rugby -4.23 -5.16 0.90
Ospreys -4.52 -7.79 3.30
Scarlets -9.96 -2.23 -7.70
Dragons -14.27 -8.14 -6.10
Zebre -17.33 -20.25 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 30 36 – 14 15.70 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 31 19 – 14 -4.90 FALSE
3 Stormers vs. Sharks Dec 31 16 – 15 10.10 TRUE
4 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 01 22 – 9 -4.60 FALSE
5 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 27 – 21 0.60 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 13 – 12 -3.10 FALSE
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 02 21 – 22 9.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 07 Sharks 1.60
2 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 28 Bulls 12.50

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing 92 6.10 3.42 2.70
Bordeaux Begles 5.45 4.07 1.40
Stade Rochelais 5.35 6.40 -1.10
Stade Toulousain 5.33 7.24 -1.90
Toulon 4.59 3.11 1.50
Stade Francais 2.83 2.62 0.20
Clermont 0.68 1.47 -0.80
Castres Olympique 0.66 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.63 -0.44 1.10
Lyon 0.22 2.97 -2.70
Montpellier -0.26 2.09 -2.40
Bayonne -1.05 -1.32 0.30
USA Perpignan -4.75 -3.64 -1.10
US Oyonnax -8.16 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 30 35 – 40 2.50 FALSE
2 US Oyonnax vs. Section Paloise Dec 30 34 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
3 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Dec 31 27 – 23 -1.20 FALSE
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Dec 31 20 – 18 7.50 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 31 29 – 8 5.50 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Dec 31 19 – 5 7.60 TRUE
7 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Jan 01 13 – 17 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Jan 06 Bordeaux Begles 13.00
2 Montpellier vs. Toulon Jan 06 Montpellier 1.60
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 06 Racing 92 11.90
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 06 Section Paloise 1.80
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Jan 06 Stade Francais 8.60
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jan 06 Stade Toulousain 11.60
7 USA Perpignan vs. US Oyonnax Jan 06 USA Perpignan 9.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 5.93 6.82 -0.90
Leicester Tigers 5.27 6.13 -0.90
Exeter Chiefs 5.18 -0.89 6.10
Harlequins 3.52 1.93 1.60
Northampton Saints 3.00 2.66 0.30
Bath 2.67 -1.26 3.90
Sale Sharks 2.14 6.46 -4.30
Bristol 1.31 1.00 0.30
Gloucester -5.38 -1.45 -3.90
Newcastle Falcons -12.89 -10.63 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 50 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 30 14 – 24 4.70 FALSE
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 31 37 – 19 26.30 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 31 21 – 17 7.60 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 31 32 – 26 16.80 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 01 35 – 22 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 06 Harlequins -10.40
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jan 06 Sale Sharks 6.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 07 Exeter Chiefs 8.20
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 07 Leicester Tigers 5.30
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Jan 08 Bath 14.00

 

December 28, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.06 10.73 1.30
Bulls 10.75 9.00 1.80
Munster 9.42 10.54 -1.10
Stormers 7.17 8.93 -1.80
Glasgow 6.76 4.19 2.60
Ulster 4.49 7.80 -3.30
Connacht 2.81 3.17 -0.40
Lions 0.26 -4.26 4.50
Edinburgh -0.14 -2.26 2.10
Sharks -0.89 0.85 -1.70
Benetton -3.02 -5.12 2.10
Cardiff Rugby -3.70 -5.16 1.50
Ospreys -5.05 -7.79 2.70
Scarlets -9.54 -2.23 -7.30
Dragons -14.69 -8.14 -6.60
Zebre -16.69 -20.25 3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 23 22 – 10 8.10 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 23 20 – 19 4.30 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 23 24 – 31 -12.80 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Bulls Dec 24 26 – 20 -3.00 FALSE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 55 – 21 9.40 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 11 – 25 -0.40 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 3 – 9 0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 30 Benetton 15.70
2 Bulls vs. Lions Dec 31 Bulls 12.50
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 31 Glasgow -4.90
4 Stormers vs. Sharks Dec 31 Stormers 10.10
5 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 01 Munster -4.60
6 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 Ospreys 0.60
7 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 Scarlets -3.10
8 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 02 Leinster 9.60

 

December 24, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing 92 6.36 3.42 2.90
Stade Toulousain 5.84 7.24 -1.40
Bordeaux Begles 5.07 4.07 1.00
Stade Rochelais 4.83 6.40 -1.60
Toulon 4.27 3.11 1.20
Stade Francais 3.15 2.62 0.50
Section Paloise 1.39 -0.44 1.80
Castres Olympique 1.22 -0.39 1.60
Clermont 1.06 1.47 -0.40
Lyon 0.49 2.97 -2.50
Montpellier -0.54 2.09 -2.60
Bayonne -1.30 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.31 -3.64 -1.70
US Oyonnax -8.92 -10.00 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Dec 23 46 – 10 9.50 TRUE
2 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Dec 23 36 – 10 0.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Dec 24 30 – 21 4.30 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. US Oyonnax Dec 24 66 – 10 19.70 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Dec 24 22 – 11 6.40 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 24 18 – 13 4.80 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Dec 24 25 – 17 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 30 Clermont 2.50
2 US Oyonnax vs. Section Paloise Dec 30 Section Paloise -3.80
3 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Dec 31 Racing 92 -1.20
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Dec 31 Lyon 7.50
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 31 Stade Rochelais 5.50
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Dec 31 Toulon 7.60
7 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Jan 01 Castres Olympique 13.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.67 6.82 -0.10
Leicester Tigers 4.78 6.13 -1.30
Harlequins 4.49 1.93 2.60
Exeter Chiefs 3.90 -0.89 4.80
Northampton Saints 3.36 2.66 0.70
Bath 3.16 -1.26 4.40
Bristol 2.60 1.00 1.60
Sale Sharks 1.78 6.46 -4.70
Gloucester -6.35 -1.45 -4.90
Newcastle Falcons -13.64 -10.63 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 45 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Dec 23 13 – 21 -10.80 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Dec 23 22 – 20 0.90 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 24 29 – 10 2.20 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Dec 24 29 – 31 -4.10 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Harlequins Dec 24 25 – 17 3.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 30 Bristol 4.70
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 31 Saracens 26.30
3 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 31 Northampton Saints 7.60
4 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 31 Harlequins 16.80
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 01 Leicester Tigers 7.60

 

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