Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Saracens | 8.43 | 6.82 | 1.60 |
Bristol | 6.08 | 1.00 | 5.10 |
Leicester Tigers | 4.13 | 6.13 | -2.00 |
Northampton Saints | 3.21 | 2.66 | 0.60 |
Bath | 2.42 | -1.26 | 3.70 |
Sale Sharks | 1.66 | 6.46 | -4.80 |
Harlequins | 0.83 | 1.93 | -1.10 |
Exeter Chiefs | -0.97 | -0.89 | -0.10 |
Gloucester | -2.84 | -1.45 | -1.40 |
Newcastle Falcons | -12.21 | -10.63 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gloucester vs. Bristol | Mar 31 | 24 – 33 | -1.60 | TRUE |
2 | Harlequins vs. Bath | Mar 31 | 40 – 36 | 4.50 | TRUE |
3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 31 | 13 – 19 | -11.30 | TRUE |
4 | Northampton Saints vs. Saracens | Mar 31 | 41 – 30 | -1.40 | FALSE |
5 | Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 31 | 41 – 5 | 3.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 21 | Bristol | 24.30 |
2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Apr 21 | Exeter Chiefs | 2.60 |
3 | Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers | Apr 21 | Northampton Saints | 5.10 |
4 | Saracens vs. Gloucester | Apr 21 | Saracens | 17.30 |
5 | Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins | Apr 22 | Sale Sharks | 6.80 |
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