May 6, 2025

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.62 11.43 0.20
Crusaders 10.88 8.99 1.90
Blues 10.73 14.92 -4.20
Hurricanes 9.76 10.97 -1.20
Brumbies 5.92 6.19 -0.30
Reds 1.60 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -3.82 -2.50 -1.30
Western Force -5.21 -6.41 1.20
Waratahs -6.21 -5.17 -1.00
Moana Pasifika -6.89 -11.25 4.40
Fijian Drua -7.87 -7.98 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Western Force May 02 40 – 19 19.80 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Reds May 03 36 – 33 -6.80 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 03 35 – 17 0.20 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 03 40 – 17 14.90 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika May 04 29 – 34 7.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fijian Drua vs. Blues May 09 Blues -14.60
2 Waratahs vs. Reds May 09 Reds -4.30
3 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 10 Crusaders 2.80
4 Western Force vs. Brumbies May 10 Brumbies -7.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.81 9.29 -0.50
Panthers 6.75 8.50 -1.80
Sharks 4.79 5.10 -0.30
Roosters 4.42 7.44 -3.00
Sea Eagles 3.48 2.97 0.50
Bulldogs 3.27 0.07 3.20
Cowboys 3.01 4.11 -1.10
Broncos 0.28 -1.82 2.10
Raiders 0.18 -3.61 3.80
Warriors -0.88 -1.68 0.80
Dolphins -1.26 -1.96 0.70
Knights -2.73 -0.05 -2.70
Dragons -4.25 -4.55 0.30
Rabbitohs -4.80 -4.35 -0.50
Eels -6.36 -3.02 -3.30
Wests Tigers -7.21 -10.97 3.80
Titans -7.50 -5.50 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Eels May 02 28 – 18 11.40 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Dolphins May 02 36 – 26 1.80 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights May 03 4 – 30 0.10 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 03 30 – 26 -4.80 FALSE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 03 34 – 28 -4.00 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 04 18 – 38 -9.70 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Broncos May 04 32 – 8 1.50 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Raiders May 04 18 – 20 9.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Dolphins May 08 Dolphins -2.10
2 Knights vs. Titans May 09 Knights 7.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 09 Broncos -2.10
4 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 10 Bulldogs -0.10
5 Dragons vs. Warriors May 10 Dragons 0.10
6 Cowboys vs. Panthers May 10 Panthers -0.70
7 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 11 Storm 19.00
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks May 11 Sea Eagles 1.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 10

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 21.39 18.20 3.20
Collingwood 19.59 5.39 14.20
Brisbane Lions 17.35 22.65 -5.30
Hawthorn Hawks 17.32 21.95 -4.60
Geelong Cats 16.22 15.04 1.20
Adelaide Crows 13.25 2.69 10.60
GWS Giants 7.74 9.08 -1.30
Sydney Swans 7.69 12.60 -4.90
Carlton Blues 2.70 5.01 -2.30
Fremantle Dockers 1.97 5.99 -4.00
Gold Coast Suns 1.03 -6.41 7.40
St Kilda Saints 0.44 0.89 -0.40
Port Adelaide Power -1.83 7.63 -9.50
Melbourne Demons -6.55 -0.21 -6.30
Essendon Bombers -12.43 -10.15 -2.30
North Melbourne -30.73 -37.08 6.40
Richmond Tigers -32.25 -31.00 -1.20
West Coast Eagles -35.29 -34.67 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne May 01 65 – 62 21.10 TRUE
2 St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers May 02 94 – 33 1.80 TRUE
3 Western Bulldogs vs. Port Adelaide Power May 03 131 – 41 26.00 TRUE
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues May 03 110 – 50 15.50 TRUE
5 Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats May 03 87 – 90 17.50 FALSE
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons May 03 76 – 108 -15.10 TRUE
7 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants May 04 87 – 73 2.00 TRUE
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers May 04 109 – 44 46.70 TRUE
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns May 04 66 – 49 21.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood May 08 Collingwood -6.60
2 St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues May 09 Carlton Blues -2.30
3 Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 10 Hawthorn Hawks -23.90
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans May 10 Sydney Swans -9.10
5 Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs May 10 Western Bulldogs -20.40
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows May 10 Adelaide Crows -15.10
7 Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles May 11 Richmond Tigers 14.00
8 Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants May 11 Geelong Cats 19.50
9 North Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions May 11 Brisbane Lions -37.10

 

May 4, 2025

Lucky lotto stores

There’s a Herald story about lotto wins.  It has a sub-headline ‘Luckiest’ Lotto stores in New Zealand

The story admits that Lotto has stopped pretending ‘lucky’ stores exist:

Certain Lotto stores have long been tipped as being “luckier” than others, although Lotto previously stopped promoting this in its press releases after it was criticised by academics for misleading customers.

As you’ll know, other academics (ahem)  also criticised them for misleading consumers.

The Herald then goes on to give us a list of ‘luckiest’ stores.

April 29, 2025

Comparative ultra-processed reports

Q: Did you see  Every bite of ultraprocessed food will increase your chance of an early death.

A: How could they possibly have shown this?

Q: New study says

A: But think about it. How do they measure people’s consumption of ultraprocessed food down to the single bite level? How do they find a comparison group with just one bite less consumption? What does it even mean?

Q: Don’t I get to ask those questions?

A: <sigh>

Q: Where is the new research? And how many people or mice did they study?

A: It’s in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, and it doesn’t involve any new data collection.  It’s a combination of a bunch of existing studies that looked at correlations between diet and health

Q: Does the claim about “every bite” appear in the journal paper?

A: No.

Q: Where does it come from?

A: As text, I’m not sure.  As an idea I think it comes from a claim in the paper for a “linear dose-response relationship”, ie, that risk goes up in a straight line with consumption of ultra-processed foods

Q: Does it?

A: That’s the model they assumed. They don’t really seem to have assessed the evidence for non-linearity in the paper, and they certainly can’t say anything meaningful about the “single bite” dose. The combined estimate is that groups of people whose consumption of these foods was higher by about 10% of their diet had a risk of premature death that was about 3% higher.

Q: But what would the risk from “one bite” be?

A:  You mean if the relationship was exactly linear extrapolated way down to that level and perfectly causal?

Q: Yes, just for fun

A: One bite of what? Different bites have different calorie levels

Q: Just work with me here. Make something up, ok?

A: Ok. So if one bite was 2% of one day’s energy intake it would be  0.0055% of one year’s energy intake, or 0.00055% of ten years’. At a increase of 3% per 10 percentage points, that’s an increased risk of premature death by a factor of 1.000016.  Which would be quite hard to detect.

Q: We were promised comparisons

A: Ah, yes. The BBC also wrote about this study, with the perfectly reasonable headline Ultra-processed foods may be linked to early death

Q: “May be“?

A: As one expert they quoted said “It’s still far from clear whether consumption of just any UPF at all is bad for health, or what aspect of UPFs might be involved. This all means that it’s impossible for any one study to be sure whether differences in mortality between people who consume different UPF amounts are actually caused by differences in their UPF consumption. You still can’t be sure from any study of this kind exactly what’s causing what.”

Q: He’s not saying ultra-processed food is good, though?

A: No, I think the most negative opinion you’ll see is just that it’s not necessarily a helpful way to categorise food

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.71 5.55 7.20
Leicester Tigers 8.29 3.27 5.00
Sale Sharks 6.88 4.73 2.20
Gloucester 6.71 -9.04 15.70
Saracens 2.37 9.68 -7.30
Northampton Saints 1.94 7.50 -5.60
Bristol -0.23 9.58 -9.80
Harlequins -2.17 -2.73 0.60
Exeter Chiefs -8.54 1.23 -9.80
Newcastle Falcons -17.20 -19.02 1.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 26 25 – 7 9.30 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 55 – 19 36.50 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Apr 27 40 – 7 12.90 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 27 48 – 31 6.60 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 79 – 17 11.70 TRUE

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks May 10 Leicester Tigers 7.90
2 Bristol vs. Bath May 11 Bath -6.40
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester May 11 Gloucester -2.40
4 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons May 11 Saracens 26.10
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 12 Northampton Saints -4.00

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.24 12.09 0.10
Bulls 10.33 8.83 1.50
Glasgow 8.00 9.39 -1.40
Stormers 6.51 6.75 -0.20
Munster 4.01 9.28 -5.30
Sharks 2.50 -2.94 5.40
Lions 0.85 6.73 -5.90
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Edinburgh 0.76 0.09 0.70
Connacht -1.65 -0.76 -0.90
Scarlets -1.76 -10.65 8.90
Cardiff Rugby -1.92 -2.55 0.60
Ospreys -1.93 -2.51 0.60
Ulster -2.01 2.52 -4.50
Benetton -4.95 1.02 -6.00
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -8.57 -16.17 7.60
Dragons -16.70 -15.41 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster Apr 26 26 – 21 -2.00 FALSE
2 Glasgow vs. Bulls Apr 26 19 – 26 5.00 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Connacht Apr 27 26 – 7 6.10 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons Apr 27 57 – 24 14.70 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Leinster Apr 27 35 – 22 -11.90 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Benetton Apr 27 56 – 5 12.00 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Sharks Apr 27 19 – 22 2.10 FALSE
8 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Apr 27 25 – 25 -4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Ospreys May 10 Sharks 9.90
2 Munster vs. Ulster May 10 Munster 8.50
3 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby May 11 Bulls 17.80
4 Benetton vs. Glasgow May 11 Glasgow -7.50
5 Leinster vs. Zebre May 11 Leinster 26.30
6 Stormers vs. Dragons May 11 Stormers 28.70
7 Connacht vs. Edinburgh May 11 Connacht 3.10
8 Lions vs. Scarlets May 12 Lions 8.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.57 8.76 4.80
Toulon 5.86 5.32 0.50
Bordeaux Begles 5.37 3.96 1.40
Stade Rochelais 1.22 4.85 -3.60
Clermont 1.19 0.41 0.80
Montpellier 0.93 -0.96 1.90
Racing 92 0.64 2.75 -2.10
Bayonne 0.48 -1.69 2.20
Lyon 0.47 -0.18 0.60
Castres Olympique -0.07 -0.09 0.00
Section Paloise -0.65 1.38 -2.00
Stade Francais -2.05 1.86 -3.90
USA Perpignan -3.55 -0.66 -2.90
Vannes -7.69 -10.00 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 154 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Section Paloise Apr 27 27 – 22 7.50 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 27 10 – 21 13.10 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Lyon Apr 27 39 – 31 5.30 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 27 19 – 13 10.50 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Apr 27 52 – 6 18.20 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. Toulon Apr 27 29 – 19 -7.50 FALSE
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Apr 28 49 – 24 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont May 11 Castres Olympique 5.60
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise May 11 Lyon 7.40
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 11 Racing 92 6.80
4 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain May 11 Stade Toulousain -1.30
5 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais May 11 USA Perpignan 5.30
6 Vannes vs. Stade Rochelais May 11 Stade Rochelais -1.60
7 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles May 12 Montpellier 1.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.32 11.43 0.90
Crusaders 10.88 8.99 1.90
Blues 10.65 14.92 -4.30
Hurricanes 9.06 10.97 -1.90
Brumbies 5.55 6.19 -0.60
Reds 2.04 1.35 0.70
Highlanders -3.28 -2.50 -0.80
Western Force -5.13 -6.41 1.30
Waratahs -5.83 -5.17 -0.70
Moana Pasifika -7.42 -11.25 3.80
Fijian Drua -8.30 -7.98 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Western Force Apr 25 56 – 22 20.30 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Blues Apr 25 35 – 21 -6.20 FALSE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Apr 26 34 – 15 3.60 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Apr 26 10 – 43 -8.90 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 26 29 – 35 1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Western Force May 02 Blues 19.80
2 Fijian Drua vs. Reds May 03 Reds -6.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 03 Hurricanes 0.20
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 03 Brumbies 14.90
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika May 04 Highlanders 7.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.39 9.29 0.10
Panthers 5.79 8.50 -2.70
Sharks 4.90 5.10 -0.20
Roosters 3.99 7.44 -3.50
Sea Eagles 3.48 2.97 0.50
Cowboys 3.46 4.11 -0.70
Bulldogs 2.76 0.07 2.70
Broncos 1.24 -1.82 3.10
Raiders -0.40 -3.61 3.20
Dolphins -0.83 -1.96 1.10
Warriors -1.34 -1.68 0.30
Rabbitohs -3.71 -4.35 0.60
Dragons -3.75 -4.55 0.80
Knights -3.82 -0.05 -3.80
Eels -6.47 -3.02 -3.50
Titans -6.99 -5.50 -1.50
Wests Tigers -7.71 -10.97 3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 42 – 18 -0.60 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 46 – 18 9.10 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Knights Apr 25 26 – 12 5.10 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 24 – 16 17.00 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 26 50 – 18 11.70 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 26 10 – 26 7.30 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Dolphins Apr 27 40 – 28 2.50 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 27 20 – 18 -10.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Eels May 02 Sharks 11.40
2 Roosters vs. Dolphins May 02 Roosters 1.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights May 03 Rabbitohs 0.10
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 03 Cowboys -4.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 03 Dragons -4.00
6 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 04 Bulldogs -9.70
7 Panthers vs. Broncos May 04 Panthers 1.50
8 Storm vs. Raiders May 04 Storm 9.80