November 21, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 5.90 7.24 -1.30
Racing 92 4.93 3.42 1.50
Stade Rochelais 4.93 6.40 -1.50
Bordeaux Begles 3.82 4.07 -0.30
Stade Francais 3.36 2.62 0.70
Toulon 3.32 3.11 0.20
Lyon 1.56 2.97 -1.40
Clermont 1.51 1.47 0.00
Castres Olympique 1.45 -0.39 1.80
Section Paloise 1.01 -0.44 1.40
Montpellier 0.33 2.09 -1.80
Bayonne -0.78 -1.32 0.50
USA Perpignan -5.23 -3.64 -1.60
US Oyonnax -8.49 -10.00 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Section Paloise Nov 18 35 – 16 3.70 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 18 31 – 23 1.40 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Toulon Nov 18 27 – 30 5.50 FALSE
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Nov 18 9 – 13 5.90 FALSE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 18 25 – 21 8.00 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Lyon Nov 18 38 – 20 -5.00 FALSE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Nov 18 23 – 16 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan Nov 25 Bordeaux Begles 15.60
2 Lyon vs. Bayonne Nov 25 Lyon 8.80
3 Montpellier vs. US Oyonnax Nov 25 Montpellier 15.30
4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 25 Racing 92 6.50
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Nov 25 Section Paloise 4.20
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Nov 25 Stade Toulousain 10.90
7 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Nov 25 Toulon 8.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.88 6.82 2.10
Sale Sharks 4.80 6.46 -1.70
Exeter Chiefs 3.99 -0.89 4.90
Leicester Tigers 2.91 6.13 -3.20
Northampton Saints 2.30 2.66 -0.40
Harlequins 2.13 1.93 0.20
Bristol 1.34 1.00 0.30
Bath 0.93 -1.26 2.20
Gloucester -4.05 -1.45 -2.60
Newcastle Falcons -12.49 -10.63 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Bristol Nov 18 20 – 19 6.60 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 18 40 – 22 24.50 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Nov 19 26 – 17 6.00 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Nov 19 10 – 38 4.70 FALSE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Nov 20 25 – 24 16.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 25 Northampton Saints 6.20
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Nov 25 Sale Sharks 9.90
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Nov 26 Saracens 13.50
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 26 Leicester Tigers -1.00
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 27 Exeter Chiefs -10.50

 

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November 18, 2023

Bird of the Century

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For years, Bird of the Year has been the only self-selected (‘bogus’, ‘straw-poll’, ‘unscientific’) survey endorsed by StatsChat.  The unique feature of Bird of the Year as a bogus poll is that no-one pretends it is anything else. The pūteketeke won Bird of the Century fair and square, due to John Oliver’s marketing efforts, and no-one seriously thinks this says anything real about the relative popularity of New Zealand birds.

The key takeaway from Bird of the Century is this is what bogus polls are like. All of them. When a bogus poll agrees with population opinion, it’s just an accident.  When someone claims to have information from a survey result, it’s always good to ask whether it’s the type of survey that’s more accurate than just pulling a number out of your arse, or not.

A couple of weeks ago, there was a widely–reported claim made by a spokesperson for AA Insurance that 53% of people in New Zealand wanted a ban on domestic use of fireworks. None of the media outlets asked (or reported asking) anything about how he got that number.  When a news report says something that’s attributed to an anonymous source like that, you want to know who is vouching for the credibility of the source.

I happened to see a post on social media by someone who had been in a survey that could have been the one quoted, which was run by my2cents.  I don’t know how good their surveys are, but they at least qualify as trying to get the right answer.  If that survey was actually the one reported by AA Insurance, it would be good to know.

In some contexts, such as election polling or policy decisions, you might want to know more about the methods used and the reputation of the pollsters.  Even in simple news reporting, though, it’s important to ask if this is the sort of survey that gives you information or the sort of survey that just gives you grebes.

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November 14, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.84 10.73 -0.90
Bulls 9.69 9.00 0.70
Munster 9.58 10.54 -1.00
Stormers 8.36 8.93 -0.60
Ulster 7.38 7.80 -0.40
Glasgow 5.87 4.19 1.70
Connacht 3.16 3.17 -0.00
Edinburgh -1.25 -2.26 1.00
Sharks -2.27 0.85 -3.10
Benetton -2.65 -5.12 2.50
Lions -2.98 -4.26 1.30
Cardiff Rugby -4.97 -5.16 0.20
Scarlets -5.94 -2.23 -3.70
Ospreys -6.65 -7.79 1.10
Dragons -10.40 -8.14 -2.30
Zebre -16.76 -20.25 3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Nov 11 12 – 10 -12.70 FALSE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Bulls Nov 11 12 – 18 -11.80 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Munster Nov 11 21 – 14 -1.60 FALSE
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Nov 12 20 – 17 -8.90 FALSE
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Nov 12 23 – 31 -8.70 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Lions Nov 12 23 – 24 1.50 FALSE
7 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Nov 12 25 – 22 -1.30 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Leinster Nov 12 10 – 33 -14.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Bulls Nov 18 Bulls -6.90
2 Ulster vs. Lions Nov 18 Ulster 14.40
3 Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 18 Cardiff Rugby -7.80
4 Sharks vs. Connacht Nov 19 Connacht -1.40
5 Dragons vs. Ospreys Nov 19 Ospreys -1.80
6 Munster vs. Stormers Nov 19 Munster 5.20
7 Glasgow vs. Benetton Nov 19 Glasgow 12.50
8 Leinster vs. Scarlets Nov 19 Leinster 19.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.23 7.24 -1.00
Stade Rochelais 5.13 6.40 -1.30
Racing 92 4.43 3.42 1.00
Stade Francais 3.85 2.62 1.20
Bordeaux Begles 3.62 4.07 -0.50
Toulon 2.89 3.11 -0.20
Lyon 2.28 2.97 -0.70
Clermont 1.93 1.47 0.50
Section Paloise 1.52 -0.44 2.00
Castres Olympique 1.12 -0.39 1.50
Montpellier 0.66 2.09 -1.40
Bayonne -1.29 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.57 -3.64 -1.90
US Oyonnax -9.21 -10.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. US Oyonnax Nov 12 39 – 11 16.00 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Nov 12 32 – 36 5.90 FALSE
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Nov 12 17 – 20 6.10 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 12 20 – 11 3.90 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Nov 12 18 – 15 13.70 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 12 43 – 34 19.00 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Nov 13 31 – 26 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Section Paloise Nov 18 Bayonne 3.70
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 18 Castres Olympique 1.40
3 Clermont vs. Toulon Nov 18 Clermont 5.50
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Nov 18 Stade Francais 5.90
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 18 Stade Rochelais 8.00
6 US Oyonnax vs. Lyon Nov 18 Lyon -5.00
7 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Nov 18 USA Perpignan 0.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.13 6.82 -0.70
Sale Sharks 5.39 6.46 -1.10
Exeter Chiefs 5.37 -0.89 6.30
Harlequins 4.88 1.93 3.00
Leicester Tigers 2.61 6.13 -3.50
Northampton Saints 2.60 2.66 -0.10
Bath 1.45 -1.26 2.70
Bristol 0.82 1.00 -0.20
Gloucester -5.43 -1.45 -4.00
Newcastle Falcons -13.07 -10.63 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Bath Nov 11 27 – 45 2.70 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 12 13 – 27 4.70 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Nov 12 25 – 29 5.40 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 13 12 – 50 -8.20 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 13 34 – 19 0.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Nov 18 Bath 6.60
2 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 18 Sale Sharks 24.50
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Nov 19 Leicester Tigers 6.00
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Nov 19 Harlequins 4.70
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Nov 20 Exeter Chiefs 16.80

 

November 7, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 10.28 10.54 -0.30
Bulls 10.27 9.00 1.30
Stormers 9.29 8.93 0.40
Leinster 9.18 10.73 -1.60
Ulster 6.68 7.80 -1.10
Glasgow 5.94 4.19 1.70
Connacht 3.58 3.17 0.40
Sharks -1.15 0.85 -2.00
Edinburgh -1.67 -2.26 0.60
Lions -3.24 -4.26 1.00
Benetton -3.58 -5.12 1.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.55 -5.16 -0.40
Scarlets -5.69 -2.23 -3.50
Ospreys -6.71 -7.79 1.10
Dragons -9.74 -8.14 -1.60
Zebre -17.89 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Stormers Nov 04 20 – 9 -1.30 FALSE
2 Ospreys vs. Sharks Nov 04 19 – 5 -4.30 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Bulls Nov 04 29 – 54 -23.90 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 05 36 – 27 16.30 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Dragons Nov 05 45 – 14 22.70 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 05 31 – 25 0.80 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Ulster Nov 05 22 – 20 -1.90 FALSE
8 Benetton vs. Lions Nov 05 15 – 10 3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Nov 11 Sharks -12.70
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Bulls Nov 11 Bulls -11.80
3 Ulster vs. Munster Nov 11 Munster -1.60
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Nov 12 Stormers -8.90
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Nov 12 Glasgow -8.70
6 Scarlets vs. Lions Nov 12 Scarlets 1.50
7 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Nov 12 Connacht -1.30
8 Dragons vs. Leinster Nov 12 Leinster -14.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.59 7.24 -0.60
Stade Rochelais 5.51 6.40 -0.90
Racing 92 4.43 3.42 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.87 4.07 -0.20
Stade Francais 3.36 2.62 0.70
Toulon 2.89 3.11 -0.20
Lyon 2.77 2.97 -0.20
Clermont 1.48 1.47 0.00
Section Paloise 1.26 -0.44 1.70
Montpellier 1.12 2.09 -1.00
Castres Olympique 0.71 -0.39 1.10
Bayonne -1.66 -1.32 -0.30
USA Perpignan -5.93 -3.64 -2.30
US Oyonnax -8.80 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Nov 05 26 – 13 8.80 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Nov 05 46 – 14 8.20 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Nov 05 22 – 20 8.80 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 05 13 – 9 0.90 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Nov 05 39 – 16 8.20 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Nov 05 26 – 22 -3.00 FALSE
7 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 06 19 – 17 -8.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. US Oyonnax Nov 12 Castres Olympique 16.00
2 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Nov 12 Lyon 5.90
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Nov 12 Montpellier 6.10
4 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 12 Section Paloise 3.90
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Nov 12 Stade Rochelais 13.70
6 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 12 Stade Toulousain 19.00
7 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Nov 13 Toulon 5.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.62 -0.89 7.50
Harlequins 4.04 1.93 2.10
Sale Sharks 3.78 6.46 -2.70
Saracens 3.62 6.82 -3.20
Leicester Tigers 3.45 6.13 -2.70
Bristol 2.43 1.00 1.40
Northampton Saints 1.35 2.66 -1.30
Bath -0.33 -1.26 0.90
Gloucester -3.65 -1.45 -2.20
Newcastle Falcons -10.56 -10.63 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Nov 04 24 – 10 13.30 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 04 40 – 12 19.00 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Nov 05 24 – 18 8.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 05 32 – 17 4.30 TRUE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Nov 06 29 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Bath Nov 11 Gloucester 2.70
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 12 Bristol 4.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Nov 12 Leicester Tigers 5.40
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 13 Saracens -8.20
5 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 13 Northampton Saints 0.70

 

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October 31, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stormers 10.24 8.93 1.30
Bulls 10.16 9.00 1.20
Leinster 9.92 10.73 -0.80
Munster 9.60 10.54 -0.90
Ulster 7.07 7.80 -0.70
Glasgow 4.99 4.19 0.80
Connacht 3.19 3.17 0.00
Sharks 0.22 0.85 -0.60
Edinburgh -2.40 -2.26 -0.10
Lions -3.07 -4.26 1.20
Benetton -3.75 -5.12 1.40
Cardiff Rugby -5.04 -5.16 0.10
Scarlets -6.20 -2.23 -4.00
Ospreys -8.08 -7.79 -0.30
Dragons -9.07 -8.14 -0.90
Zebre -17.78 -20.25 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Zebre Oct 28 34 – 31 15.70 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Glasgow Oct 29 34 – 26 0.80 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Scarlets Oct 29 52 – 7 16.30 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 29 34 – 13 12.30 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 29 17 – 16 5.60 TRUE
6 Benetton vs. Munster Oct 30 13 – 13 -11.10 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 30 9 – 16 -0.80 TRUE
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Oct 30 26 – 19 -0.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Stormers Nov 04 Stormers -1.30
2 Ospreys vs. Sharks Nov 04 Sharks -4.30
3 Zebre vs. Bulls Nov 04 Bulls -23.90
4 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 05 Leinster 16.30
5 Munster vs. Dragons Nov 05 Munster 22.70
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 05 Scarlets 0.80
7 Connacht vs. Ulster Nov 05 Ulster -1.90
8 Benetton vs. Lions Nov 05 Benetton 3.30

 

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