Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Canterbury | 15.64 | 12.85 | 2.80 |
Auckland | 8.51 | 11.34 | -2.80 |
Taranaki | 7.18 | 8.25 | -1.10 |
Tasman | 4.78 | 8.71 | -3.90 |
Wellington | 4.43 | 4.32 | 0.10 |
Counties Manukau | 4.21 | 2.45 | 1.80 |
Otago | 0.09 | 0.54 | -0.40 |
Waikato | -2.94 | -4.31 | 1.40 |
Hawke’s Bay | -3.50 | 1.85 | -5.30 |
North Harbour | -4.83 | -8.15 | 3.30 |
Bay of Plenty | -5.24 | -5.54 | 0.30 |
Manawatu | -5.45 | -6.71 | 1.30 |
Northland | -11.60 | -19.37 | 7.80 |
Southland | -14.77 | -9.71 | -5.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Waikato vs. Canterbury | Sep 28 | 23 – 29 | -13.00 | TRUE |
2 | Tasman vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 29 | 15 – 10 | 4.50 | TRUE |
3 | Wellington vs. Southland | Sep 30 | 60 – 21 | 19.70 | TRUE |
4 | North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 01 | 44 – 34 | 3.20 | TRUE |
5 | Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 01 | 21 – 30 | 4.50 | FALSE |
6 | Auckland vs. Otago | Oct 01 | 54 – 17 | 7.00 | TRUE |
7 | Taranaki vs. Canterbury | Oct 02 | 34 – 39 | -5.00 | TRUE |
8 | Northland vs. Waikato | Oct 02 | 48 – 27 | -9.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Manawatu vs. Wellington | Oct 05 | Wellington | -5.90 |
2 | Auckland vs. Tasman | Oct 06 | Auckland | 7.70 |
3 | Canterbury vs. North Harbour | Oct 07 | Canterbury | 24.50 |
4 | Southland vs. Northland | Oct 08 | Southland | 0.80 |
5 | Otago vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 08 | Counties Manukau | -0.10 |
6 | Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 08 | Waikato | 4.60 |
7 | Wellington vs. Taranaki | Oct 09 | Wellington | 1.30 |
8 | Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu | Oct 09 | Bay of Plenty | 4.20 |
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