NRL Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 10.72 | 14.73 | -4.00 |
Roosters | 8.14 | 3.08 | 5.10 |
Storm | 7.06 | 6.15 | 0.90 |
Broncos | 4.28 | 9.07 | -4.80 |
Sharks | 3.61 | 2.94 | 0.70 |
Sea Eagles | 1.39 | -0.48 | 1.90 |
Cowboys | -0.90 | 2.47 | -3.40 |
Dolphins | -1.59 | -7.09 | 5.50 |
Knights | -2.58 | 1.84 | -4.40 |
Rabbitohs | -2.66 | 0.87 | -3.50 |
Bulldogs | -2.71 | -13.35 | 10.60 |
Warriors | -2.85 | -0.07 | -2.80 |
Dragons | -4.88 | -6.93 | 2.00 |
Eels | -5.25 | 0.14 | -5.40 |
Titans | -5.91 | -7.89 | 2.00 |
Raiders | -7.18 | -4.31 | -2.90 |
Wests Tigers | -10.68 | -13.15 | 2.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 121 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dolphins vs. Storm | Jun 21 | 24 – 30 | -5.60 | TRUE |
2 | Titans vs. Warriors | Jun 22 | 66 – 6 | -3.30 | FALSE |
3 | Roosters vs. Bulldogs | Jun 22 | 26 – 8 | 13.20 | TRUE |
4 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 22 | 14 – 0 | -3.10 | FALSE |
5 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Jun 23 | 48 – 24 | -3.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bulldogs vs. Sharks | Jun 28 | Sharks | -3.30 |
2 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Jun 29 | Broncos | -0.10 |
3 | Knights vs. Eels | Jun 29 | Knights | 5.70 |
4 | Storm vs. Raiders | Jun 29 | Storm | 17.20 |
5 | Dragons vs. Dolphins | Jun 30 | Dolphins | -0.30 |
6 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | Jun 30 | Panthers | 14.60 |
7 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 30 | Roosters | 21.80 |
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