March 5, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.06 7.24 0.80
Stade Rochelais 5.66 6.40 -0.70
Bordeaux Begles 3.94 4.07 -0.10
Stade Francais 3.72 2.62 1.10
Toulon 3.66 3.11 0.50
Racing 92 2.33 3.42 -1.10
Castres Olympique 1.63 -0.39 2.00
Montpellier 1.17 2.09 -0.90
Clermont 0.63 1.47 -0.80
Section Paloise 0.48 -0.44 0.90
Bayonne -0.14 -1.32 1.20
Lyon -1.27 2.97 -4.20
USA Perpignan -3.78 -3.64 -0.10
US Oyonnax -8.49 -10.00 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 03 39 – 10 6.20 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Mar 03 21 – 5 7.20 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Mar 03 25 – 12 9.40 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Mar 03 33 – 6 11.90 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 03 44 – 22 13.10 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Montpellier Mar 03 35 – 39 -3.10 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Mar 04 42 – 3 9.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Mar 10 Stade Rochelais 8.40
2 Clermont vs. US Oyonnax Mar 10 Clermont 15.60
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Mar 10 Lyon 3.60
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 10 Montpellier 3.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Mar 10 Section Paloise 7.10
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 10 Stade Toulousain -5.30
7 Racing 92 vs. Toulon Mar 11 Racing 92 5.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.22 18.86 -1.60
Chiefs 14.67 13.21 1.50
Blues 11.83 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 10.13 9.73 0.40
Brumbies 6.26 6.52 -0.30
Highlanders 1.31 1.17 0.10
Reds 0.96 0.07 0.90
Waratahs -1.28 -1.90 0.60
Rebels -4.90 -4.59 -0.30
Western Force -7.31 -6.15 -1.20
Fijian Drua -9.37 -9.21 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.40 -10.80 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 29 – 37 -10.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 48 – 34 4.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 39 – 36 -1.70 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 24 – 37 20.80 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 46 – 12 6.40 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 38 – 33 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Mar 08 Rebels -0.50
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 08 Waratahs 2.40
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 09 Crusaders -21.60
4 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 09 Brumbies 16.60
5 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 09 Hurricanes 1.30
6 Reds vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Chiefs -8.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

So this is new. The methodology is the same, but there are a few quirks when it comes to home ground advantage. I have used the listed home grounds in making decisions, but it is a lot more problematic. Think for example Collingwood versus St Kilda Saints played at Marvel Stadium. Should I give the Saints home ground advantage? I do. Also should home ground advantage be the same for all teams and locations. I have done that, but in future may allocate different home ground advantage for teams in the same city compared to teams playing a team from a different state or city.

You may also note that Collingwood’s rating is less than the Lions. That is how the numbers played out. I am actually fairly happy with it statistically given the result of the Grand Final (Collingwood by 4 points) which given the home ground advantage is pretty close.

Note that I am a long-time Collingwood supporter, but as is the case with all my predictions I try and make them as objective as possible, using a simple statistical method.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 17.47 17.47 -0.00
Collingwood 14.87 14.87 0.00
Melbourne Demons 13.91 13.91 0.00
GWS Giants 12.60 12.60 -0.00
Geelong Cats 10.50 10.50 0.00
Carlton Blues 9.73 9.73 0.00
Adelaide Crows 9.56 9.56 -0.00
Sydney Swans 9.23 9.23 0.00
Port Adelaide Power 8.83 8.83 0.00
Western Bulldogs 6.04 6.04 0.00
Fremantle Dockers 0.40 0.40 0.00
St Kilda Saints -0.63 -0.63 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -4.60 -4.60 0.00
Richmond Tigers -6.13 -6.13 0.00
Hawthorn Hawks -11.08 -11.08 -0.00
Essendon Bombers -17.70 -17.70 -0.00
North Melbourne -25.73 -25.73 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -43.10 -43.10 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 07 Sydney Swans 4.30
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Mar 08 Brisbane Lions 16.70
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 09 Gold Coast Suns 10.50
4 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 GWS Giants 6.70

 

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February 27, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.56 7.24 0.30
Stade Rochelais 4.78 6.40 -1.60
Stade Francais 3.54 2.62 0.90
Bordeaux Begles 3.50 4.07 -0.60
Toulon 3.22 3.11 0.10
Racing 92 2.77 3.42 -0.70
Castres Olympique 2.13 -0.39 2.50
Clermont 1.51 1.47 0.00
Montpellier 1.12 2.09 -1.00
Section Paloise 0.67 -0.44 1.10
Lyon -0.56 2.97 -3.50
Bayonne -0.85 -1.32 0.50
USA Perpignan -3.34 -3.64 0.30
US Oyonnax -8.45 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 25 41 – 12 3.60 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. US Oyonnax Feb 25 43 – 26 14.10 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Feb 25 28 – 23 8.90 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Feb 25 11 – 27 7.20 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Toulon Feb 25 17 – 9 3.50 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 25 27 – 15 -2.60 FALSE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 26 33 – 37 0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 03 Bayonne 6.20
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Mar 03 Bordeaux Begles 7.20
3 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Mar 03 Stade Francais 9.40
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Mar 03 Stade Toulousain 11.90
5 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 03 Toulon 13.10
6 US Oyonnax vs. Montpellier Mar 03 Montpellier -3.10
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Mar 04 Stade Rochelais 9.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.39 18.86 -0.50
Chiefs 13.68 13.21 0.50
Blues 12.03 12.20 -0.20
Hurricanes 10.47 9.73 0.70
Brumbies 7.25 6.52 0.70
Highlanders 1.10 1.17 -0.10
Reds 0.62 0.07 0.50
Waratahs -2.45 -1.90 -0.50
Rebels -5.33 -4.59 -0.70
Western Force -6.89 -6.15 -0.70
Fijian Drua -9.04 -9.21 0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.73 -10.80 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 23 33 – 29 -2.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 23 3 – 30 -8.10 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 14 – 44 -10.90 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Feb 24 34 – 10 26.40 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 24 35 – 21 15.00 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 24 40 – 22 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 Blues -10.90
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 Rebels 4.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 Fijian Drua -1.70
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 Crusaders 20.80
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 Chiefs 6.40
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 Hurricanes 9.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

This is an update after I realised I should have not given a home ground advantage for the first-named teams for the games played in Los Angeles. I got both results wrong as a result.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.73 14.73 -0.00
Broncos 9.07 9.07 0.00
Storm 6.15 6.15 -0.00
Roosters 3.08 3.08 -0.00
Sharks 2.94 2.94 0.00
Cowboys 2.47 2.47 0.00
Knights 1.84 1.84 0.00
Rabbitohs 0.87 0.87 0.00
Eels 0.14 0.14 0.00
Warriors -0.07 -0.07 0.00
Sea Eagles -0.48 -0.48 0.00
Raiders -4.31 -4.31 0.00
Dragons -6.93 -6.93 -0.00
Dolphins -7.09 -7.09 0.00
Titans -7.89 -7.89 -0.00
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.15 -0.00
Bulldogs -13.35 -13.35 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 03 Rabbitohs -1.30
2 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 03 Broncos -6.00
3 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 07 Knights 9.20
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Mar 08 Warriors 4.00
5 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 08 Panthers -5.60
6 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 09 Eels 16.50
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 09 Titans 2.00
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Mar 10 Cowboys -6.60

 

February 20, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.12 10.73 1.40
Bulls 10.67 9.00 1.70
Munster 9.64 10.54 -0.90
Glasgow 6.68 4.19 2.50
Stormers 6.42 8.93 -2.50
Ulster 4.54 7.80 -3.30
Connacht 4.10 3.17 0.90
Sharks 0.29 0.85 -0.60
Edinburgh -0.07 -2.26 2.20
Lions -0.10 -4.26 4.20
Benetton -3.28 -5.12 1.80
Ospreys -3.73 -7.79 4.10
Cardiff Rugby -4.20 -5.16 1.00
Scarlets -11.50 -2.23 -9.30
Dragons -14.98 -8.14 -6.80
Zebre -16.61 -20.25 3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Munster Feb 17 7 – 42 -14.10 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Feb 17 19 – 24 -14.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Feb 18 10 – 25 -7.20 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Benetton Feb 18 47 – 18 17.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 18 21 – 25 -4.20 TRUE
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Feb 18 12 – 16 -4.40 TRUE
7 Glasgow vs. Dragons Feb 18 40 – 7 24.20 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 19 19 – 17 -5.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Mar 02 Edinburgh 7.70
2 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 02 Munster 30.20
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 Lions 1.60
4 Benetton vs. Glasgow Mar 03 Glasgow -6.00
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 03 Bulls 6.20
6 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 03 Connacht 19.60
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Mar 03 Leinster -12.30
8 Ulster vs. Dragons Mar 03 Ulster 23.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.31 7.24 0.10
Stade Rochelais 5.27 6.40 -1.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.29 4.07 0.20
Racing 92 3.49 3.42 0.10
Toulon 3.44 3.11 0.30
Stade Francais 2.82 2.62 0.20
Clermont 1.76 1.47 0.30
Castres Olympique 1.35 -0.39 1.70
Montpellier 1.32 2.09 -0.80
Section Paloise 0.44 -0.44 0.90
Lyon -0.70 2.97 -3.70
Bayonne -1.04 -1.32 0.30
USA Perpignan -3.82 -3.64 -0.20
US Oyonnax -8.30 -10.00 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Clermont Feb 18 21 – 13 3.20 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Feb 18 10 – 20 11.70 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 18 28 – 17 -0.30 FALSE
4 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Feb 18 20 – 44 10.70 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Feb 18 32 – 19 13.20 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. US Oyonnax Feb 18 61 – 34 21.60 TRUE
7 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Feb 19 25 – 17 4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 25 Castres Olympique 3.60
2 Lyon vs. US Oyonnax Feb 25 Lyon 14.10
3 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Feb 25 Montpellier 8.90
4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Feb 25 Racing 92 7.20
5 Section Paloise vs. Toulon Feb 25 Section Paloise 3.50
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 25 Stade Rochelais -2.60
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 26 Clermont 0.90

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.86 18.86 0.00
Chiefs 13.21 13.21 0.00
Blues 12.20 12.20 0.00
Hurricanes 9.73 9.73 0.00
Brumbies 6.52 6.52 -0.00
Highlanders 1.17 1.17 0.00
Reds 0.07 0.07 -0.00
Waratahs -1.90 -1.90 0.00
Rebels -4.59 -4.59 0.00
Western Force -6.15 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -9.21 -9.21 0.00
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -10.80 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 23 Crusaders -2.60
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 23 Brumbies -8.10
3 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 Hurricanes -10.90
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Feb 24 Blues 26.40
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 24 Highlanders 15.00
6 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 24 Reds 5.00

 

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February 16, 2024

Say the magic word?

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Q: Did you see you can be 50% more influential by using this one word!!

A:  Not convinced

Q: But it’s a Harvard study! With Science!

A: How did they measure influentialness?

Q:

A: <eyeroll emoji>

Q: How did they measure influentialness?

A: By whether someone let you in front of them at the photocopier

Q: What’s a photocopier?

A: When we were very young, books and academic journals were published on this stuff called paper, and stored in a special building, and you had to use a special machine to download them, one page at a time, on to your own paper

Q: That must have sucked.  Wait, why are they asking about photocopiers in a study about influencers now?

A: It’s a study from 50 years ago (PDF)

Q: It says 1978, though. That’s nowhere near… fifty…….. Ok, moving right along here. Why is a study from 50 years ago about photocopiers going to be useful now?

A: If it supports the message you just wrote a book about, it might be.

Q: So the study compared different ways of asking if you could use the photocopier?

A: Yes

Q: And the ones where they used the magic word worked better?

A: Not really. They had three versions of the request. Two of them gave a reason and also used the magic word, the third didn’t do either.

Q: But the ones that gave a reason were 50% more influential?

A: In the case where someone was asking for a short use of the photocopier, the success rate was 60% with no reason and over 90% with a reason (and the magic word)

Q: And when it wasn’t short?

A: 24% with no reason, 24% with a bad reason (and the magic word), and 42% with a good reason (and the magic word)

Q: So what really matters is how long you want someone to wait and whether you have a good reason?

A: That would be an interpretation, yes

Q: In 1978

A: Yes

Q: Still, our parents always told use to “say the magic word” when making requests

A: Actually, they didn’t

Q: Well, no, but they might have

A: And the word they were looking for wasn’t “Because”

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