Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Cheetahs | 6.45 | 6.37 | 0.10 |
Bulls | 5.19 | -0.48 | 5.70 |
Pumas | 4.33 | 4.30 | 0.00 |
Western Province | 0.86 | 0.59 | 0.30 |
Lions | 0.34 | -4.44 | 4.80 |
Sharks | 0.21 | 0.96 | -0.70 |
Griquas | -6.65 | -2.59 | -4.10 |
Griffons | -20.72 | -14.70 | -6.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Griffons vs. Cheetahs | Jul 26 | 45 – 47 | -28.20 | TRUE |
2 | Pumas vs. Griquas | Jul 27 | 66 – 26 | 9.20 | TRUE |
3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jul 27 | 22 – 35 | 7.20 | FALSE |
4 | Bulls vs. Western Province | Jul 28 | 50 – 34 | 5.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cheetahs vs. Bulls | Aug 03 | Cheetahs | 4.80 |
2 | Pumas vs. Sharks | Aug 03 | Pumas | 7.60 |
3 | Western Province vs. Griffons | Aug 04 | Western Province | 25.10 |
4 | Griquas vs. Lions | Aug 04 | Lions | -3.50 |
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