Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Wellington | 12.13 | 10.63 | 1.50 |
Waikato | 6.28 | 5.30 | 1.00 |
Hawke’s Bay | 5.35 | 6.09 | -0.70 |
Canterbury | 4.52 | 6.01 | -1.50 |
Taranaki | 4.31 | 5.21 | -0.90 |
Tasman | 3.35 | 2.17 | 1.20 |
Bay of Plenty | 2.35 | 3.52 | -1.20 |
Auckland | 2.09 | 3.00 | -0.90 |
North Harbour | 2.06 | 3.06 | -1.00 |
Otago | -2.36 | -3.26 | 0.90 |
Counties Manukau | -4.21 | -5.22 | 1.00 |
Northland | -5.33 | -4.29 | -1.00 |
Southland | -9.07 | -10.05 | 1.00 |
Manawatu | -17.98 | -18.73 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Northland vs. Southland | Aug 30 | 26 – 31 | 8.80 | FALSE |
2 | North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 31 | 33 – 36 | 11.30 | FALSE |
3 | Taranaki vs. Otago | Aug 31 | 22 – 18 | 11.50 | TRUE |
4 | Waikato vs. Auckland | Aug 31 | 39 – 21 | 5.30 | TRUE |
5 | Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 31 | 34 – 15 | 1.60 | TRUE |
6 | Canterbury vs. Wellington | Sep 01 | 21 – 46 | -1.60 | TRUE |
7 | Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 01 | 26 – 38 | -21.80 | TRUE |
8 | Waikato vs. Northland | Sep 04 | 34 – 19 | 14.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu | Sep 06 | Bay of Plenty | 23.30 |
2 | Wellington vs. Southland | Sep 07 | Wellington | 24.20 |
3 | Auckland vs. North Harbour | Sep 07 | Auckland | 3.00 |
4 | Otago vs. Canterbury | Sep 07 | Canterbury | -3.90 |
5 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman | Sep 07 | Hawke’s Bay | 5.00 |
6 | Taranaki vs. Waikato | Sep 08 | Taranaki | 1.00 |
7 | Counties Manukau vs. Northland | Sep 08 | Counties Manukau | 4.10 |
8 | Otago vs. Wellington | Sep 11 | Wellington | -11.50 |
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