NRL Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Roosters | 10.20 | 8.72 | 1.50 |
Storm | 7.82 | 6.03 | 1.80 |
Rabbitohs | 4.59 | 3.89 | 0.70 |
Raiders | 3.84 | 1.81 | 2.00 |
Sharks | 2.86 | 3.90 | -1.00 |
Dragons | 1.21 | 0.06 | 1.20 |
Broncos | 0.11 | 2.63 | -2.50 |
Warriors | -1.58 | -0.27 | -1.30 |
Sea Eagles | -2.67 | -5.61 | 2.90 |
Wests Tigers | -2.78 | -5.57 | 2.80 |
Panthers | -2.92 | 0.93 | -3.80 |
Cowboys | -3.07 | 0.15 | -3.20 |
Eels | -3.11 | -6.17 | 3.10 |
Bulldogs | -4.43 | -0.61 | -3.80 |
Titans | -4.79 | -3.36 | -1.40 |
Knights | -7.27 | -8.51 | 1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Broncos vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 11 | 16 – 22 | 7.80 | FALSE |
2 | Titans vs. Panthers | Apr 12 | 30 – 24 | 0.30 | TRUE |
3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Apr 12 | 12 – 18 | -8.20 | TRUE |
4 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Apr 13 | 28 – 24 | 11.80 | TRUE |
5 | Knights vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 13 | 18 – 26 | -0.60 | TRUE |
6 | Sharks vs. Roosters | Apr 13 | 16 – 30 | -2.80 | TRUE |
7 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Apr 14 | 40 – 4 | 4.20 | TRUE |
8 | Raiders vs. Eels | Apr 14 | 19 – 0 | 8.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Apr 18 | Sharks | 8.80 |
2 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 19 | Rabbitohs | -6.00 |
3 | Storm vs. Roosters | Apr 19 | Storm | 0.60 |
4 | Warriors vs. Cowboys | Apr 20 | Warriors | 6.00 |
5 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 20 | Dragons | 6.90 |
6 | Titans vs. Knights | Apr 21 | Titans | 5.50 |
7 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Apr 21 | Raiders | 6.70 |
8 | Eels vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 22 | Eels | 2.70 |
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