Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Exeter Chiefs | 10.07 | 11.13 | -1.10 |
Saracens | 10.01 | 11.19 | -1.20 |
Northampton Saints | 4.70 | 3.42 | 1.30 |
Gloucester Rugby | 4.39 | 1.23 | 3.20 |
Wasps | 2.67 | 8.30 | -5.60 |
Bath Rugby | 2.59 | 3.11 | -0.50 |
Harlequins | 2.47 | 2.05 | 0.40 |
Sale Sharks | 1.12 | -0.81 | 1.90 |
Leicester Tigers | -0.43 | 6.26 | -6.70 |
Worcester Warriors | -1.02 | -5.18 | 4.20 |
Bristol | -1.60 | -5.60 | 4.00 |
Newcastle Falcons | -3.38 | -3.51 | 0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | Apr 27 | 17 – 15 | 14.30 | TRUE |
2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol | Apr 27 | 20 – 23 | 7.70 | FALSE |
3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 27 | 17 – 31 | -1.40 | TRUE |
4 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath Rugby | Apr 27 | 6 – 3 | 4.30 | TRUE |
5 | Wasps vs. Saracens | Apr 27 | 14 – 31 | -0.40 | TRUE |
6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Rugby | Apr 27 | 27 – 20 | -0.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bath Rugby vs. Wasps | May 04 | Bath Rugby | 5.40 |
2 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | May 04 | Bristol | 2.80 |
3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons | May 04 | Gloucester Rugby | 13.30 |
4 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | May 04 | Harlequins | 8.40 |
5 | Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors | May 04 | Northampton Saints | 11.20 |
6 | Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs | May 04 | Saracens | 5.40 |
Recent comments