Super Rugby Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Crusaders | 16.73 | 17.67 | -0.90 |
Hurricanes | 8.10 | 9.43 | -1.30 |
Highlanders | 4.83 | 4.01 | 0.80 |
Chiefs | 2.79 | 8.56 | -5.80 |
Lions | 2.08 | 8.28 | -6.20 |
Sharks | 1.44 | 0.45 | 1.00 |
Jaguares | 1.33 | -0.26 | 1.60 |
Brumbies | -0.21 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
Bulls | -0.43 | -3.79 | 3.40 |
Stormers | -0.45 | -0.39 | -0.10 |
Waratahs | -0.49 | 2.00 | -2.50 |
Blues | -1.65 | -3.42 | 1.80 |
Rebels | -3.12 | -7.26 | 4.10 |
Reds | -5.53 | -8.19 | 2.70 |
Sunwolves | -14.43 | -16.08 | 1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 78 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Crusaders vs. Sharks | May 03 | 21 – 21 | 21.90 | FALSE |
2 | Reds vs. Sunwolves | May 03 | 32 – 26 | 13.80 | TRUE |
3 | Hurricanes vs. Rebels | May 04 | 29 – 19 | 15.90 | TRUE |
4 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | May 04 | 31 – 31 | 6.30 | FALSE |
5 | Brumbies vs. Blues | May 04 | 26 – 21 | 5.50 | TRUE |
6 | Bulls vs. Waratahs | May 04 | 28 – 21 | 3.70 | TRUE |
7 | Jaguares vs. Stormers | May 04 | 30 – 25 | 5.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Blues vs. Hurricanes | May 10 | Hurricanes | -6.20 |
2 | Rebels vs. Reds | May 10 | Rebels | 5.90 |
3 | Bulls vs. Crusaders | May 10 | Crusaders | -13.20 |
4 | Highlanders vs. Jaguares | May 11 | Highlanders | 7.50 |
5 | Chiefs vs. Sharks | May 11 | Chiefs | 5.40 |
6 | Lions vs. Waratahs | May 11 | Lions | 6.60 |
7 | Brumbies vs. Sunwolves | May 12 | Brumbies | 18.20 |
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