Pro14 Predictions for the Final
Team Ratings for the Final
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Glasgow Warriors | 9.88 | 8.55 | 1.30 |
Leinster | 9.88 | 9.80 | 0.10 |
Munster | 9.40 | 8.08 | 1.30 |
Connacht | 2.67 | 0.01 | 2.70 |
Scarlets | 2.67 | 6.39 | -3.70 |
Ulster | 1.71 | 2.07 | -0.40 |
Ospreys | 1.47 | -0.86 | 2.30 |
Edinburgh | 1.20 | -0.64 | 1.80 |
Cardiff Blues | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.00 |
Treviso | 0.21 | -5.19 | 5.40 |
Cheetahs | -1.42 | -0.83 | -0.60 |
Dragons | -9.57 | -8.59 | -1.00 |
Southern Kings | -12.62 | -7.91 | -4.70 |
Zebre | -15.18 | -10.57 | -4.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 151 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster | May 18 | 50 – 20 | 11.20 | TRUE |
2 | Leinster vs. Munster | May 19 | 24 – 9 | 4.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Final
Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster | May 26 | Glasgow Warriors | 4.50 |
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