Super Rugby Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Crusaders | 14.53 | 17.67 | -3.10 |
Hurricanes | 7.90 | 9.43 | -1.50 |
Jaguares | 3.56 | -0.26 | 3.80 |
Highlanders | 3.49 | 4.01 | -0.50 |
Chiefs | 3.17 | 8.56 | -5.40 |
Lions | 2.68 | 8.28 | -5.60 |
Brumbies | 1.58 | 0.00 | 1.60 |
Sharks | 1.14 | 0.45 | 0.70 |
Stormers | 0.23 | -0.39 | 0.60 |
Waratahs | 0.06 | 2.00 | -1.90 |
Blues | -0.38 | -3.42 | 3.00 |
Bulls | -0.63 | -3.79 | 3.20 |
Rebels | -2.31 | -7.26 | 4.90 |
Reds | -5.94 | -8.19 | 2.20 |
Sunwolves | -18.08 | -16.08 | -2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Blues vs. Bulls | May 31 | 22 – 22 | 4.80 | FALSE |
2 | Rebels vs. Waratahs | May 31 | 15 – 20 | 2.00 | FALSE |
3 | Sunwolves vs. Brumbies | Jun 01 | 19 – 42 | -14.70 | TRUE |
4 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Jun 01 | 40 – 27 | -14.70 | FALSE |
5 | Reds vs. Jaguares | Jun 01 | 23 – 34 | -4.80 | TRUE |
6 | Sharks vs. Hurricanes | Jun 01 | 17 – 30 | -1.40 | TRUE |
7 | Lions vs. Stormers | Jun 01 | 41 – 22 | 4.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Highlanders vs. Bulls | Jun 07 | Highlanders | 8.10 |
2 | Reds vs. Blues | Jun 07 | Blues | -1.60 |
3 | Crusaders vs. Rebels | Jun 08 | Crusaders | 20.80 |
4 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Jun 08 | Waratahs | 2.00 |
5 | Lions vs. Hurricanes | Jun 08 | Hurricanes | -1.20 |
6 | Stormers vs. Sunwolves | Jun 08 | Stormers | 22.30 |
7 | Jaguares vs. Sharks | Jun 08 | Jaguares | 6.40 |
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