October 29, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.98 9.34 -0.40
Exeter Chiefs 7.04 7.99 -1.00
Northampton Saints 1.69 0.25 1.40
Gloucester 1.53 0.58 0.90
Sale Sharks 1.40 0.17 1.20
Bath 0.18 1.10 -0.90
Harlequins -0.29 -0.81 0.50
Wasps -0.98 0.31 -1.30
Bristol -1.42 -2.77 1.40
Leicester Tigers -2.51 -1.76 -0.80
Worcester Warriors -3.02 -2.69 -0.30
London Irish -6.39 -5.51 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 13 – 10 -3.10 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 35 – 16 8.00 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 25 – 9 5.90 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 22 – 17 5.80 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 7 – 41 -0.10 TRUE
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 10 – 24 -6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Nov 02 Bristol 1.70
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 02 Northampton Saints 6.50
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 03 Leicester Tigers 0.50
4 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 03 Saracens 19.90
5 Wasps vs. Bath Nov 03 Wasps 3.30
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 04 Exeter Chiefs -5.60

 

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Pro14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.00 12.20 0.80
Munster 9.45 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 6.56 9.66 -3.10
Scarlets 4.02 3.91 0.10
Connacht 3.42 2.68 0.70
Edinburgh 2.57 1.24 1.30
Ulster 2.17 1.89 0.30
Cheetahs 0.66 -3.38 4.00
Ospreys 0.53 2.80 -2.30
Cardiff Blues 0.01 0.54 -0.50
Treviso -2.07 -1.33 -0.70
Dragons -8.69 -9.31 0.60
Southern Kings -13.66 -14.70 1.00
Zebre -17.98 -16.93 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 26 28 – 12 15.30 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 26 23 – 14 8.60 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 27 18 – 5 -10.40 FALSE
4 Treviso vs. Southern Kings Oct 27 36 – 30 19.20 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Oct 27 24 – 22 10.90 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Leinster Oct 27 0 – 3 -26.10 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Oct 27 46 – 7 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Southern Kings Nov 02 Glasgow Warriors 26.70
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Nov 02 Leinster 28.20
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 02 Ulster 26.60
4 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Nov 03 Scarlets 9.90
5 Ospreys vs. Connacht Nov 03 Ospreys 3.60
6 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Nov 03 Treviso 1.90
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Nov 03 Munster -2.90

 

October 23, 2019

Publicise it while it still works?

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This is from The Times. In fact, per the BBC, it’s the leading story on the front page of tomorrow’s Times, above Brexit.

The drug in question, aducanumab, had promising and widely reported early results. It was less widely reported that the definitive clinical trials were stopped early in March of this year, when it wasn’t doing any good.  The decision to stop was based on data collected through last December; after stopping, more data has rolled in. Biogen, the makers of the drug, are now claiming that the data accumulated since then show a benefit at the highest dose; the FDA have given them permission to apply for approval.  Here’s what has happened to their stock price

So far, no detailed data or analyses have been published. The New York Times story, which is a lot more chill, says that the results will be presented at a conference in December. A working drug would be genuinely important news, but putting it on the front page right now would be a bit premature even in a slow news week.

There’s a general pattern with drug breakthrough news, where the good news is presented with big headlines in the main body of the paper, and the bad news that walks it back is in the business section, with small headlines.  One long-term result is a misleadingly optimistic public view of new drugs, most of which aren’t breakthroughs.

 

 

Update: note that the post-good-news stock price jump was a lot smaller than the post-bad-news collapse, and the price fell over the day after the peak — the stock markets aren’t betting on this being a spectacularly successful drug.

October 22, 2019

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this weekend’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the cup.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 28.74 27.60 1.10
England 21.46 19.78 1.70
South Africa 20.59 18.51 2.10
Ireland 10.56 12.12 -1.60
Wales 9.61 12.72 -3.10
Australia 6.60 8.70 -2.10
Scotland 6.14 5.44 0.70
France 5.26 7.11 -1.80
Argentina 3.32 4.15 -0.80
Japan -5.52 -7.67 2.20
Fiji -5.54 -5.27 -0.30
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -15.53 -11.89 -3.60
Tonga -15.83 -20.46 4.60
Georgia -18.08 -17.43 -0.70
USA -18.64 -16.38 -2.30
Uruguay -30.89 -35.67 4.80
Canada -34.63 -32.45 -2.20
Russia -36.32 -36.78 0.50
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 92.7%.
Here are the predictions for last weekend’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 England vs. Australia Oct 19 40 – 16 12.90 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. Ireland Oct 19 46 – 14 15.10 TRUE
3 Wales vs. France Oct 20 20 – 19 5.10 TRUE
4 Japan vs. South Africa Oct 20 3 – 26 -18.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 England vs. New Zealand Oct 26 New Zealand -7.30
2 Wales vs. South Africa Oct 27 South Africa -11.00

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.51 9.34 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs 7.41 7.99 -0.60
Northampton Saints 1.08 0.25 0.80
Gloucester 0.96 0.58 0.40
Bath -0.19 1.10 -1.30
Sale Sharks -0.20 0.17 -0.40
Harlequins -0.23 -0.81 0.60
Wasps -0.41 0.31 -0.70
Bristol -1.48 -2.77 1.30
Leicester Tigers -2.04 -1.76 -0.30
Worcester Warriors -2.40 -2.69 0.30
London Irish -4.79 -5.51 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 19 43 – 16 0.60 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 22 – 19 13.30 TRUE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 20 16 – 18 4.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Oct 20 25 – 27 13.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 20 24 – 16 3.60 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Oct 21 26 – 29 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 26 Exeter Chiefs -3.10
2 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 27 Northampton Saints 8.00
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Oct 27 Gloucester 5.90
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 27 Harlequins 5.80
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 Sale Sharks -0.10
6 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 28 Saracens -6.00

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 19.59 9.00 10.60
Canterbury 11.92 12.92 -1.00
Auckland 10.73 11.57 -0.80
Wellington 10.37 10.92 -0.50
Bay of Plenty 10.21 -4.82 15.00
North Harbour 4.25 5.30 -1.10
Waikato 3.00 8.24 -5.20
Hawke’s Bay -1.09 -5.69 4.60
Otago -6.19 -1.49 -4.70
Taranaki -6.53 -5.22 -1.30
Counties Manukau -10.37 -1.99 -8.40
Northland -10.49 -6.23 -4.30
Manawatu -15.28 -11.67 -3.60
Southland -21.35 -22.08 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 18 64 – 3 22.60 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 19 44 – 39 14.60 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Oct 19 30 – 19 8.70 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 18 18 – 9 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 25 Bay of Plenty 15.30
2 Tasman vs. Wellington Oct 26 Tasman 13.20

 

October 21, 2019

Algorithms Charter: request for comment

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There’s a “Draft Algorithms Charter” from the Government

The Ministry of Statistics is asking for  feedback on the draft charter by 31 December 2019. Specifically:

  • Does the proposed text provide you with increased confidence in how the government uses algorithms?
  • Should the Charter apply only to operational algorithms?
  • Have we got the right balance to enable innovation, while retaining transparency?
  • Have we captured your specific concerns and expectations, and those of your whānau, community or organisation?

 

Briefly

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  • Andrew Chen’s twitter reactions  to a workshop at VUW on regulating facial recognition technologies
  • Interactive exploration of fairness in predictive sentencing algorithms (the same issue as my ‘Kinds of fairness worth working for‘)
  • Beautiful new atlas of the land and people of Aotearoa, “We Are Here“, by Chris McDowall and Tim Denee. Also, their code and data source repository
  • Visualisations of various cities by the street name suffix, eg, Street vs Road vs Avenue
  • From Stuff: ‘Statistics New Zealand challenges Colliers analysis on housing demand’.   There has been a tendency to treat the 2013 2018 Census data as uniformly bad, and it would be good if people were a bit more discriminating — some of the data are of very high quality, and some are of very low quality.  You might, for example, read our report
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October 16, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.34 9.34 0.00
Exeter Chiefs 7.99 7.99 -0.00
Bath 1.10 1.10 0.00
Gloucester 0.58 0.58 -0.00
Wasps 0.31 0.31 -0.00
Northampton Saints 0.25 0.25 -0.00
Sale Sharks 0.17 0.17 -0.00
Harlequins -0.81 -0.81 -0.00
Leicester Tigers -1.76 -1.76 -0.00
Worcester Warriors -2.69 -2.69 -0.00
Bristol -2.77 -2.77 0.00
London Irish -5.51 -5.51 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 19 Bristol 0.60
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 Exeter Chiefs 13.30
3 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 20 Sale Sharks 4.10
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Oct 20 Saracens 13.60
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 20 Worcester Warriors 3.60
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Oct 21 Wasps 10.30

 

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October 15, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.81 12.20 1.60
Munster 9.39 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 7.38 9.66 -2.30
Scarlets 5.13 3.91 1.20
Connacht 4.22 2.68 1.50
Ulster 2.13 1.89 0.20
Edinburgh 1.46 1.24 0.20
Ospreys 0.59 2.80 -2.20
Cardiff Blues 0.05 0.54 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.14 -3.38 3.20
Treviso -1.52 -1.33 -0.20
Dragons -9.51 -9.31 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.21 -14.70 0.50
Zebre -18.79 -16.93 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Munster Oct 12 40 – 16 -4.90 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Oct 12 14 – 38 -5.90 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Oct 12 40 – 14 17.30 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 13 54 – 10 29.20 TRUE
5 Southern Kings vs. Ulster Oct 13 17 – 42 -8.60 TRUE
6 Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 13 17 – 13 14.80 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Treviso Oct 13 24 – 20 9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 26 Munster 15.30
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues Oct 26 Ulster 8.60
3 Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors Oct 27 Glasgow Warriors -10.40
4 Treviso vs. Southern Kings Oct 27 Treviso 19.20
5 Connacht vs. Cheetahs Oct 27 Connacht 10.90
6 Zebre vs. Leinster Oct 27 Leinster -26.10
7 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Oct 27 Edinburgh 2.80

 

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