Top 14 Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Stade Toulousain | 9.22 | 8.76 | 0.50 |
Bordeaux Begles | 6.41 | 3.96 | 2.50 |
Toulon | 5.41 | 5.32 | 0.10 |
Stade Rochelais | 4.97 | 4.85 | 0.10 |
Racing 92 | 2.76 | 2.75 | 0.00 |
Castres Olympique | 1.22 | -0.09 | 1.30 |
Section Paloise | 1.00 | 1.38 | -0.40 |
Lyon | 0.07 | -0.18 | 0.20 |
Clermont | -0.28 | 0.41 | -0.70 |
Stade Francais | -0.80 | 1.86 | -2.70 |
Bayonne | -0.88 | -1.69 | 0.80 |
Montpellier | -1.20 | -0.96 | -0.20 |
USA Perpignan | -2.99 | -0.66 | -2.30 |
Vannes | -9.19 | -10.00 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais | Oct 12 | 37 – 7 | -1.60 | FALSE |
2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 12 | 66 – 12 | 13.10 | TRUE |
3 | Lyon vs. Stade Francais | Oct 12 | 35 – 3 | 5.40 | TRUE |
4 | Montpellier vs. Vannes | Oct 12 | 26 – 24 | 15.60 | TRUE |
5 | Racing 92 vs. Toulon | Oct 12 | 22 – 6 | 2.80 | TRUE |
6 | Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 12 | 33 – 26 | 6.20 | TRUE |
7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Oct 12 | 48 – 14 | 14.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bayonne vs. Racing 92 | Oct 20 | Bayonne | 2.90 |
2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais | Oct 20 | Castres Olympique | 8.50 |
3 | Clermont vs. Vannes | Oct 20 | Clermont | 15.40 |
4 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 20 | Stade Toulousain | -1.70 |
5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 21 | Stade Rochelais | 5.10 |
6 | Toulon vs. Montpellier | Oct 20 | Toulon | 13.10 |
7 | USA Perpignan vs. Lyon | Oct 20 | USA Perpignan | 3.40 |
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