Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Cheetahs | 10.16 | 6.37 | 3.80 |
Bulls | 2.78 | -0.48 | 3.30 |
Lions | 1.77 | -4.44 | 6.20 |
Pumas | 0.54 | 4.30 | -3.80 |
Sharks | -0.42 | 0.96 | -1.40 |
Western Province | -0.99 | 0.59 | -1.60 |
Griquas | -3.66 | -2.59 | -1.10 |
Griffons | -20.18 | -14.70 | -5.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Griquas vs. Sharks | Jul 12 | 34 – 31 | -0.60 | FALSE |
2 | Pumas vs. Lions | Jul 13 | 21 – 75 | 12.80 | FALSE |
3 | Cheetahs vs. Western Province | Jul 13 | 37 – 17 | 13.30 | TRUE |
4 | Griffons vs. Bulls | Jul 14 | 10 – 52 | -14.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Lions vs. Griquas | Jul 19 | Lions | 8.90 |
2 | Pumas vs. Sharks | Jul 19 | Pumas | 4.50 |
3 | Bulls vs. Cheetahs | Jul 20 | Cheetahs | -3.90 |
4 | Griffons vs. Western Province | Jul 22 | Western Province | -15.70 |