Posts filed under Sports statistics (1519)

June 22, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.84 2.32 5.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.93 6.21 0.70
Stade Toulousain 6.71 4.80 1.90
Bordeaux-Begles 5.27 2.83 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 5.23 3.22 2.00
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Stade Francais Paris 1.16 -3.22 4.40
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 19 19 – 6 5.30 TRUE
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 20 24 – 21 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle Jun 26 Stade Toulousain 4.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.78 7.35 2.40
Sale Sharks 5.77 4.96 0.80
Bristol 4.72 1.28 3.40
Harlequins 3.43 -1.08 4.50
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.95 5.66 -7.60
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -2.70 -6.14 3.40
Bath -2.81 2.14 -4.90
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -9.04 -10.00 1.00
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 20 36 – 43 7.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 20 40 – 30 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 27 Exeter Chiefs -6.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.40 5.19 0.20
Western Province 4.22 3.28 0.90
Bulls 4.19 5.14 -0.90
Lions 2.65 3.74 -1.10
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -4.58 -5.67 1.10
Griquas -9.71 -9.50 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 33.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 39 – 10 -6.40 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 16 – 30 -11.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 24 – 48 4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Jun 24 Lions 1.40
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Jun 26 Bulls 11.80
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jun 26 Cheetahs -4.50

 

June 19, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.19 5.19 0.00
Bulls 5.14 5.14 0.00
Lions 3.74 3.74 -0.00
Western Province 3.28 3.28 0.00
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -5.67 -5.67 -0.00
Griquas -9.50 -9.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 Lions -6.40
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 Sharks -11.70
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 Bulls 4.90

 

June 15, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 7.47 6.21 1.30
La Rochelle 7.30 2.32 5.00
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.23 3.22 2.00
Bordeaux-Begles 4.95 2.83 2.10
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Stade Francais Paris 1.16 -3.22 4.40
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 12 38 – 21 11.00 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Jun 12 25 – 16 4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 19 La Rochelle 5.30
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 20 Stade Toulousain 7.60

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.79 14.49 0.30
Blues 9.30 7.80 1.50
Hurricanes 8.02 7.13 0.90
Highlanders 5.41 2.70 2.70
Chiefs 5.31 4.38 0.90
Brumbies 2.02 1.47 0.50
Reds 0.53 1.59 -1.10
Rebels -6.39 -3.51 -2.90
Western Force -10.06 -13.05 3.00
Waratahs -10.96 -5.02 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Reds Jun 11 43 – 14 12.90 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 11 12 – 33 4.70 FALSE
3 Rebels vs. Crusaders Jun 12 26 – 52 -20.50 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Western Force Jun 12 31 – 21 27.00 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Jun 12 7 – 40 -8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Jun 19 Blues 9.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.63 7.35 2.30
Sale Sharks 5.91 4.96 0.90
Bristol 5.49 1.28 4.20
Harlequins 2.66 -1.08 3.70
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.95 5.66 -7.60
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -2.70 -6.14 3.40
Bath -2.81 2.14 -4.90
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -9.04 -10.00 1.00
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 122 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Jun 13 30 – 24 1.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 13 20 – 19 9.20 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 13 54 – 26 14.80 TRUE
4 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 31 – 38 6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 20 Bristol 7.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 20 Exeter Chiefs 8.20

 

Pro 14 Rainbow Cup Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.79 15.74 -1.00
Munster 10.69 9.13 1.60
Ulster 7.41 8.77 -1.40
Bulls 4.63 1.70 2.90
Glasgow Warriors 3.69 2.64 1.00
Edinburgh 2.90 3.48 -0.60
Connacht 1.72 2.50 -0.80
Ospreys 0.94 -0.65 1.60
Stormers 0.00 0.80 -0.80
Sharks -0.07 1.16 -1.20
Cardiff Blues -0.11 0.73 -0.80
Scarlets -0.77 0.41 -1.20
Lions -3.91 -3.00 -0.90
Treviso -5.48 -6.46 1.00
Dragons -6.92 -6.39 -0.50
Zebre -13.47 -14.52 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Munster Jun 12 11 – 54 -15.80 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Jun 12 38 – 7 27.60 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jun 13 22 – 34 1.40 FALSE
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Jun 13 28 – 28 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Bulls Jun 20 Bulls -3.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.96 14.53 4.40
Panthers 13.56 8.88 4.70
Eels 9.02 1.68 7.30
Roosters 8.27 10.25 -2.00
Rabbitohs 4.69 7.73 -3.00
Sea Eagles 3.89 -4.77 8.70
Sharks -1.13 -0.76 -0.40
Raiders -2.35 6.98 -9.30
Wests Tigers -2.67 -3.07 0.40
Warriors -3.14 -1.84 -1.30
Dragons -4.91 -4.95 0.00
Titans -5.87 -7.22 1.40
Knights -8.57 -2.61 -6.00
Cowboys -9.59 -8.05 -1.50
Bulldogs -9.76 -7.62 -2.10
Broncos -12.41 -11.16 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 11 50 – 18 13.20 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Panthers Jun 11 19 – 18 -14.40 FALSE
3 Titans vs. Roosters Jun 12 34 – 35 -13.30 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 12 24 – 10 16.80 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 12 38 – 16 11.10 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 13 16 – 42 -21.20 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jun 13 40 – 12 11.90 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 14 28 – 6 -6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 17 Rabbitohs -14.10
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 18 Sharks -5.50
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 18 Panthers 8.30
4 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 19 Warriors -2.40
5 Dragons vs. Raiders Jun 19 Dragons 0.40
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 Storm 24.60
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 20 Eels 21.80
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 Sea Eagles -6.80

 

June 8, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.30 2.32 5.00
Racing-Metro 92 7.05 6.21 0.80
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.54 3.22 2.30
Bordeaux-Begles 4.65 2.83 1.80
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Stade Francais Paris 1.59 -3.22 4.80
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 127 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 06 9 – 12 -1.70 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 06 10 – 21 4.20 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. RC Toulonnais Jun 06 46 – 24 3.60 TRUE
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle Jun 06 25 – 20 3.50 TRUE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. SU Agen Jun 06 52 – 7 28.10 TRUE
6 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Jun 06 55 – 12 14.10 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Jun 06 41 – 25 1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 12 Racing-Metro 92 11.00
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Jun 12 Bordeaux-Begles 4.60

 

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